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N.F.L. Playoffs: Who We Think Will Win the Next Round
By DAVID WHITEJAN. 13, 2017

If at first you fail, try, try to get revenge in the postseason.

The N.F.L. divisional playoffs bring us repeats of four regular-season matchups. With the possible exception of the Seahawks’ 26-24 victory over the Falcons in Week 6, this round is essentially winter rematches of autumn mismatches.

The Patriots thumped the Texans, 27-0, in Week 3. The Steelers crushed the Chiefs, 43-14, in Week 4. The Cowboys throttled the Packers, 30-16, in Week 6.

Now the conquered will try to apply lessons learned against the victors.

Here is a look at this weekend’s matchups and who we think will win them. (All times are Eastern.)

Seahawks (11-5-1) at Falcons (11-5)
Time: 4:35 p.m. Saturday. TV: Fox. Line: Falcons by 5

Falcons quarterback Matt Ryan passed for 4,944 yards and 38 touchdowns this season. His 69.9 percent completion rate, impeccable; his 117.1 passer rating, league-leading.

How do you beat the All-Pro quarterback twice in three months? Leave him idling on the sidelines for protracted stretches of game time.

Enter Seahawks running back Thomas Rawls. Rawls rushed for 161 yards — tops in the team’s postseason history — in a 26-6 victory over the Lions in the wild-card round. Amazing, considering that Seattle, with a makeshift offensive line, ranked 24th in rushing during the regular season. The Falcons’ defense ranked 26th in yards allowed per carry (4.52). A rushing-based offense is Seattle’s most plausible course to victory.

Ryan and receiver Julio Jones are the arm and legs behind the league’s top-scoring offense — they connected seven times for 139 yards and one touchdown in the first meeting with Seattle. Everything Devonta Freeman, a 1,000-yard rusher, does is to set up the deep strike to Jones.

Seattle came back to beat the Falcons because safety Earl Thomas grabbed a late interception on a pass intended for Jones. With Thomas injured and done for the season, Seattle’s “Legion of Boom” defense could be muffled.

Pick: Falcons.

Texans (10-7) at Patriots (14-2)
8:15 p.m. Saturday. TV: CBS. Line: Patriots by 16

The Texans bring the league’s No. 1-ranked defense to Foxborough. Big deal, says the history of Patriots quarterback Tom Brady.

Brady is 7-0 when he and the Patriots play host to a No. 1-ranked defense, including a 406-yard performance in a 30-23 victory Dec. 12 against the Baltimore Ravens, then top-ranked defensively. If New England’s third-string quarterback, Jacoby Brissett, could beat the Texans, 27-0, on Sept. 22, what will happen when they face Brady, the owner of three Super Bowl Most Valuable Player Awards?

The Patriots are 4-0 at home against the Texans. The aggregate score: 150-49. No wonder the Patriots opened as the bookmakers’ biggest playoff favorite of the 21st century.

The Texans can forget about stopping Brady, who set an N.F.L. single-season record with a 28-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio. Their offense must find a way to respond. Wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins is a torch from sideline to sideline. Lamar Miller, who topped the 1,000-yard rushing mark, gained 107 all-purpose yards in the September meeting. Quarterback Brock Osweiler beat the Patriots, 30-24, in overtime last season — while he was a Denver Bronco.

New England is a victory away from becoming the first N.F.L. team to reach six consecutive conference championship games. A loss here would rival its Super Bowl XLII defeat against the Giants on the shock scale.

Pick: Patriots.

Steelers (12-5) at Chiefs (12-4)
8:20 p.m. Sunday. TV: NBC. Line: Chiefs by 1½

If the Steelers win, it won’t be because quarterback Ben Roethlisberger overcame a sore foot. They will beat the Chiefs because there is no stopping Le’Veon Bell’s two good ones.

Bell has rushed for 1,002 yards in the past seven games, including a team postseason record 167 yards in a 30-12 wild-card victory over Miami last weekend. We’re talking about a franchise that counts Franco Harris and Jerome Bettis as alumni. Bell went for 144 yards on 18 carries in the first meeting against Kansas City, and the Chiefs’ 26th-ranked rushing defense (121.1 yards per game) looks none the wiser.

Even if the Chiefs stack the deck with run defenders, Roethlisberger can throw deep to Pro Bowl receiver Antonio Brown — injured foot or not. That more than compensates for a Steelers defense with no Pro Bowl selections for two straight years.

Chiefs quarterback Alex Smith is good at not losing games — he ranks third in wins by a quarterback since 2011 (behind Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers). His one interception in 186 postseason pass attempts stands as the N.F.L. interception-percentage record. In games such as this, however, the Chiefs need Smith to do more than simply not make mistakes. With wide receiver Tyreek Hill and tight end Travis Kelce running routes, Kansas City will have its chances.

The game was originally scheduled for 1 p.m. but rescheduled for Sunday night because of a forecasted ice storm.

Pick: Steelers.

Packers (11-6) at Cowboys (13-3)
4:40 p.m. Sunday. TV: Fox. Line: Cowboys by 4½

Jan. 7, 1996. That was the last time the Cowboys won a divisional-round playoff game, on the way to their last Super Bowl victory.

Dallas running back Ezekiel Elliott was about 5 months old. Dallas quarterback Dak Prescott was 2½. If the Cowboys finally get back to the N.F.C. championship game, it will because of what these two rookie Pro Bowl players can do.

Behind a decorated offensive line, Elliott became the fifth rookie to lead the N.F.L. in rushing (1,631 yards), and Prescott tied the rookie quarterback record with 13 victories. In the first meeting with the Packers, Elliott dictated the pace with 28 carries for 157 yards while facing a defense that ranked eighth against the run by season’s end. More Elliott is in order.

Green Bay has won seven straight games by way of quarterback Aaron Rodgers’s 22 touchdown throws, no interceptions and 120.7 passer rating. One complication for Rodgers: a rib injury sustained last weekend by his leading receiver, Jordy Nelson, the owner of 97 catches for 1,257 yards and 14 touchdowns.

Another problem for Green Bay: stopping the pass. Only one team, the Saints, allowed more yards in the air this season. With Elliott luring safeties into run-stop mode, Prescott is positioned for a substantial postseason debut.

Pick: Cowboys.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/01/13/sports/football/nfl-schedule-predictions-point-spread.html?