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Friday, January 13, 2017 10:33:45 PM
I'm not yet convinced about Celsius until I see more proof a sustainable demand is there.
At their current lofty valuation ($120M based on 40.26M shares @ $3 per), they got to do more than sustain; they gotta keep growing, and fast. They are nearly 6x P/S over the TTM after the recent offering.
Still a lot of b1g1 or 79-99 cent sales promotions on this product.
The gross margin % in 2015 was 40%, in Q1 = 41%, Q2 = 42%, and Q3 = 43%. I'm speaking in round, illustrative numbers for simplicity's sake but the sequentially improving metrics show that if they achieve scale, they will be profitable.
But for me, the main story has always been about the top line and it's growth rate. I like the product. I think it can be a winner. But if the growth rate is interrupted, or just breaks down, for whatever reason, it's time to sell.
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