Wednesday, January 11, 2017 9:32:25 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 01/10 2017 EOD
I remain thinking consolidation with a negative bias as the near-term most likely. Rising volume does suggests that we might move into a range below my $0.73 potential pause or support point, making that only a pause. As mentioned a couple days back, if we get below it again I fell we are unlikely to recover quickly. That leaves $0.66 as a near-term untested target.
The intra-day behavior was the usual open high, flattish, drop, flattish, recover, flattish, rise into the close.
Also usual, now anyway, is the appearance of the "bid walkers" which engenders this behavior.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a at 9:29 was 70:37 $0.72/$0.80 (backed by presented 1K:900 $0.71/$0.83).
09:30-09:56 opened the day with a 1,444 sell for $0.73 & $0.74 x 440, $0.73 x 650. B/a at 9:31 was 6.5K:300 $0.73/4. Then came 9:31's 550 $0.74, 9:33's b/a 7K:300 $0.73/4 (rattling bid $0.7300/1), 9:34's b/a 900:300 $0.7301/$0.74, 9:35's 135 $0.7301, 9:36's 1.4K $0.7302/1/0/1/0/19/01/00, 9:37's 1.5K $0.7359 (1K)/$0.74/$0.7301.
That began mostly extremely low/no-volume $0.745/6. 9:41's b/a was 6.6K:7.8K $0.73/$0.7460, 9:44's 500:7.8K $0.7450/60, 9:47's 800:8.3K $0.7451/60 (rattling bids 50/51). The period ended on 9:56's 3.3K $0.7451/0/3/$0.7300 (1.5K).
09:57-11:08 began an extremely low/no-volume (mostly 100-share pecking the bids) decline from $0.7300/$0.7316 on 9:58's 100 $0.73. B/a at 10:01 was 6.5K:3K $0.73/$0.7450, 10:10 7K:2.8K $0.73/$0.745, 10:17 7.1K:3.3K $0.73/$0.7450. 10:22's 10.2K hit $0.73->$0.7200/1/$0.73 and began doing $0.7201/$0.73 with rising lows. B/a at 10:23 was 3.3K:700 $0.7201/$0.73, 10:29 3.1K:900 $0.7201/$0.73. Volume was interrupted by 10:30's 5.9K $0.73/$0.7211/33/11/19/11. B/a at 10:32 was 300:800 $0.7211/$0.73, 10:47 1.4K:1.1K $0.7213/$0.73, 11:02 7K:900 $0.7270/$0.73 (bids bouncing 70/71 & b/a began falling). The period ended on 11:08's 600 $0.7251/2.
11:09-11:38, after two no-trades minutes, began mostly low/medium-volume $0.7210/50 (most closer to the low end) after 11:10's 276K $0.7251/2 and 11:15's 16.9K $0.7250 (12.2K incl 10K blk)/1. B/a at 11:17 was 800:400 $0.7211/50, 11:32 1K:300 $0.7211/51. The period ended on 11:38's 2.1K $0.7211/3.
11:39-11:54, after two no-trades minutes, began, at first, an extremely low/no-volume walk up hitting 11:47's 100 $0.73, 11:49-:50's 900 $0.73. B/a at 11:49 was 1.3K:800 $0.7220/$0.73. Then 11:51's 750 did $0.7234/$0.73/$0.7221 and the period ended on 11:54's 30.5K $0.73 (incl 7.6K x 2 blks)/$0.7450 (800)/$0.7300/12.
11:55-12:36 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7300/50 (most near the low until 12:28) on 11:55's 250 $0.7310. B/a at 12:02 was 11K:500 $0.7300/50 (bids rattling 11K 00/2.9K 01), 12:17 900:300 $0.7315/50, 12:29 1.5K:200 $0.7301/50, 12:34 1.3K:400 $0.7301/50 (bids rattling 6.5K $0.7300/300 $0.7302). The period ended on 12:36's 400 $0.7350.
12:37-12:40, after one no-trades minute, did a move lower on 12:38's 34.3K $0.7302/03/50/02/00/02/01/ ... 02, 12:38's 100 $0.7210, and ended the period on 12:40's 1.2K $0.7212/$0.73/$0.7299/$0.73.
12:41-14:09 started with b/a of 500:500 $0.7211/$0.73. After two no-trades minutes trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.7213/$0.73, with rising lows until 13:00's low hit $0.7262 and fell back to start rising again, on 12:43's 580 $0.7213. B/a at 12:48 was 500:400 $0.7217/$0.73, 12:53 1.1K:400 $0.7227/$0.73, 13:14 1K:300 $0.7243/$0.73 (bid walkers in for sure now - appeared earlier I think), 13:17 1.1K:300 $0.7250/$0.73, 13:34 600:400 $0.7233/$0.73, 13:47 1.6K:300 $0.7241/$0.73, 14:02 1.4K:700 $0.7216/$0.73. Highs began falling with offers shortly after ~14:00. The period ended on 14:09's 100 $0.7254.
14:10-15:51 began very low/no-volume $0.7211/40 flat on 14:10's 2.9K $0.7240/19/18/15/18/15/11 before doing a step up. B/a at 14:17 was 600:500 $0.7211/40. A step up was done by 14:30's 100 $0.7450 (near the early high for the day) and began extremely low/no-volume $0.7442/50 with falling lows and then rising, and then falling, and ... B/a at 14:32 was 300:2.8K $0.7241/$0.7450, 14:42 600:2.4K $0.7242/$0.7450, 14:47 1.4K:1.6K $0.7422/50, 14:58 1.1K:1,8K $0.7224/50, 15:02 1.1K:1.7K $0.7426/50, 15:14 2.8K:900 $0.7430/1 (capped the upside since no one on the bid would actually buy anything), 15:32 2.4K:600 $0.7430/1, 15:47 2K:800 $0.7430/1. The period ended on 15:51's 126 $0.7431.
15:52-15:59, after one no-trades minute, began the EOD volatility with 15:53's 3.1K $0.7431/30/20/$0.7270/40. Then the rest of the day with almost exclusively 100-share transactions brought 15:54's 2.2K $0.7336/$0.7240/ ... $0.7426/20, 15:55's 2.6K $0.7426/21/20/26/21/20/31/26/21/...26/20/26/21, 15:56's 1.7K $0.7426/21/22/26/21/22, 15:57's 3.1K had some more mixed $0.7421/26/22 and $0.7431 (100), and 15:58's 1.4K some more mixed $0.7422/26/1. B/a at 15:59 was 100:900 $0.7421/31 and the period and day ended with 15:59's 3.8K more mixed $0.7426/22/21/31, mixed $0.7428/26/27/21/31, and ended with an official close of $0.7422 (and some odd lots $0.7431/$0.75 which aren't allowed to be official) because there was no MM closing trade.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 10 larger trades (>=5K & 1 4K+) totaling 80,033, 37.67% of day's volume, with a $0.7279 VWAP. For the day's volume the count is ... a bit higher than "normal", I guess, but there's no doubt the percentage of day's volume is very high. This is due to a more than normal count of "larger larger trades" (see below). Looking at that, the VWAP being slightly below the day's $0.7297 and the distribution, my best guess is most were covering buys by MMs and/or shorters, who have been covering for a while now according to the short interest reports.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
On my minimal chart the most striking thing is that visually it looks as if a consolidating bottom to the trend is forming, but it's only two days and today it came on rising volume, suggesting the down move has growing strength since the volume isn't high enough to signal an end to the trend (capitulation). So I don't really believe that visual "bottoming" hint.
The fast EMA continues to decline, but slowed the rate of descent today. The slow EMA continues declining at a relatively steady rate so far. Nothing yet suggesting the fast could cross above the slow in the near-term though.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, which were descending almost in parallel, now has the lower limit flattening while the upper limit continues descending at a somewhat steady rate, continuing to move the mid-point lower. Trading range was again predominantly below the mid-point.
On my one-year chart all the SMAs continue to decline. i don't see any point right now in detailing how long that will continue in the current scenario. I'll suspend that until something changes.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had weakening in RSI (marginal), Williams %R, full stochastic, and ADX-related. There was marginal improvement in accumulation/distribution, MFI (untrusted by me), and momentum.
Today the trend continued for RSI, Williams %R, full stochastic, and ADX-related. Added to the weakening list was MFI (in oversold and still untrusted by me). Accumulation/distribution and momentum continued to see marginal improvement and the latter is now slightly above neutral.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6958 and $0.7944 ($0.6965 and $0.7972 yesterday), switched to the lower limit flattening while the upper limit continues descending at a somewhat steady rate. The mid-point continues falling.
All in, as I had mentioned, I expected that $0.73 would offer a pause or support. The pause would be just "taking a breather" before continuing whatever trend appeared. I feel that's what the pattern is showing right now, but whether it becomes support or not remains to be seen.
Having said that, the aggregate of rising volume on reducing SMA and EMs with oscillators generally weakening and no apparent support before $0.66 (and that's an untested support), I continue thinking we are entering a near-term consolidation with a negative bias. The real unknown, for me, is where the low of the consolidation range will be.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys didn't move together - short percentage was flat and generally at the middle of my desired range (needs re-check) while buy percentage fell into the "no man's land" area - above suggesting more near-term weakening but below suggesting that some near-term up side could be (not "likely to be") seen.
The spread has finally made it into the range, plus or minus, consistent with consolidation. It's only one day so far so we shouldn't count on it yet.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings again deteriorated, to 17 negatives and 7 positives from 16 and 8 respectively. Change since 12/05 is -$0.2019, -21.67%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.9789%, -0.8671%, -0.6975%, -0.5381%, -0.7327%, -1.0983%, -0.9164%, 0.8671%, and -0.7967%.
All in, no change from current behavior is suggested, but for the spread. That's insufficient for me to suggest a change so I remain at consolidating with a negative bias.
Bill
I remain thinking consolidation with a negative bias as the near-term most likely. Rising volume does suggests that we might move into a range below my $0.73 potential pause or support point, making that only a pause. As mentioned a couple days back, if we get below it again I fell we are unlikely to recover quickly. That leaves $0.66 as a near-term untested target.
The intra-day behavior was the usual open high, flattish, drop, flattish, recover, flattish, rise into the close.
Also usual, now anyway, is the appearance of the "bid walkers" which engenders this behavior.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a at 9:29 was 70:37 $0.72/$0.80 (backed by presented 1K:900 $0.71/$0.83).
09:30-09:56 opened the day with a 1,444 sell for $0.73 & $0.74 x 440, $0.73 x 650. B/a at 9:31 was 6.5K:300 $0.73/4. Then came 9:31's 550 $0.74, 9:33's b/a 7K:300 $0.73/4 (rattling bid $0.7300/1), 9:34's b/a 900:300 $0.7301/$0.74, 9:35's 135 $0.7301, 9:36's 1.4K $0.7302/1/0/1/0/19/01/00, 9:37's 1.5K $0.7359 (1K)/$0.74/$0.7301.
That began mostly extremely low/no-volume $0.745/6. 9:41's b/a was 6.6K:7.8K $0.73/$0.7460, 9:44's 500:7.8K $0.7450/60, 9:47's 800:8.3K $0.7451/60 (rattling bids 50/51). The period ended on 9:56's 3.3K $0.7451/0/3/$0.7300 (1.5K).
09:57-11:08 began an extremely low/no-volume (mostly 100-share pecking the bids) decline from $0.7300/$0.7316 on 9:58's 100 $0.73. B/a at 10:01 was 6.5K:3K $0.73/$0.7450, 10:10 7K:2.8K $0.73/$0.745, 10:17 7.1K:3.3K $0.73/$0.7450. 10:22's 10.2K hit $0.73->$0.7200/1/$0.73 and began doing $0.7201/$0.73 with rising lows. B/a at 10:23 was 3.3K:700 $0.7201/$0.73, 10:29 3.1K:900 $0.7201/$0.73. Volume was interrupted by 10:30's 5.9K $0.73/$0.7211/33/11/19/11. B/a at 10:32 was 300:800 $0.7211/$0.73, 10:47 1.4K:1.1K $0.7213/$0.73, 11:02 7K:900 $0.7270/$0.73 (bids bouncing 70/71 & b/a began falling). The period ended on 11:08's 600 $0.7251/2.
11:09-11:38, after two no-trades minutes, began mostly low/medium-volume $0.7210/50 (most closer to the low end) after 11:10's 276K $0.7251/2 and 11:15's 16.9K $0.7250 (12.2K incl 10K blk)/1. B/a at 11:17 was 800:400 $0.7211/50, 11:32 1K:300 $0.7211/51. The period ended on 11:38's 2.1K $0.7211/3.
11:39-11:54, after two no-trades minutes, began, at first, an extremely low/no-volume walk up hitting 11:47's 100 $0.73, 11:49-:50's 900 $0.73. B/a at 11:49 was 1.3K:800 $0.7220/$0.73. Then 11:51's 750 did $0.7234/$0.73/$0.7221 and the period ended on 11:54's 30.5K $0.73 (incl 7.6K x 2 blks)/$0.7450 (800)/$0.7300/12.
11:55-12:36 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7300/50 (most near the low until 12:28) on 11:55's 250 $0.7310. B/a at 12:02 was 11K:500 $0.7300/50 (bids rattling 11K 00/2.9K 01), 12:17 900:300 $0.7315/50, 12:29 1.5K:200 $0.7301/50, 12:34 1.3K:400 $0.7301/50 (bids rattling 6.5K $0.7300/300 $0.7302). The period ended on 12:36's 400 $0.7350.
12:37-12:40, after one no-trades minute, did a move lower on 12:38's 34.3K $0.7302/03/50/02/00/02/01/ ... 02, 12:38's 100 $0.7210, and ended the period on 12:40's 1.2K $0.7212/$0.73/$0.7299/$0.73.
12:41-14:09 started with b/a of 500:500 $0.7211/$0.73. After two no-trades minutes trade began extremely low/no-volume $0.7213/$0.73, with rising lows until 13:00's low hit $0.7262 and fell back to start rising again, on 12:43's 580 $0.7213. B/a at 12:48 was 500:400 $0.7217/$0.73, 12:53 1.1K:400 $0.7227/$0.73, 13:14 1K:300 $0.7243/$0.73 (bid walkers in for sure now - appeared earlier I think), 13:17 1.1K:300 $0.7250/$0.73, 13:34 600:400 $0.7233/$0.73, 13:47 1.6K:300 $0.7241/$0.73, 14:02 1.4K:700 $0.7216/$0.73. Highs began falling with offers shortly after ~14:00. The period ended on 14:09's 100 $0.7254.
14:10-15:51 began very low/no-volume $0.7211/40 flat on 14:10's 2.9K $0.7240/19/18/15/18/15/11 before doing a step up. B/a at 14:17 was 600:500 $0.7211/40. A step up was done by 14:30's 100 $0.7450 (near the early high for the day) and began extremely low/no-volume $0.7442/50 with falling lows and then rising, and then falling, and ... B/a at 14:32 was 300:2.8K $0.7241/$0.7450, 14:42 600:2.4K $0.7242/$0.7450, 14:47 1.4K:1.6K $0.7422/50, 14:58 1.1K:1,8K $0.7224/50, 15:02 1.1K:1.7K $0.7426/50, 15:14 2.8K:900 $0.7430/1 (capped the upside since no one on the bid would actually buy anything), 15:32 2.4K:600 $0.7430/1, 15:47 2K:800 $0.7430/1. The period ended on 15:51's 126 $0.7431.
15:52-15:59, after one no-trades minute, began the EOD volatility with 15:53's 3.1K $0.7431/30/20/$0.7270/40. Then the rest of the day with almost exclusively 100-share transactions brought 15:54's 2.2K $0.7336/$0.7240/ ... $0.7426/20, 15:55's 2.6K $0.7426/21/20/26/21/20/31/26/21/...26/20/26/21, 15:56's 1.7K $0.7426/21/22/26/21/22, 15:57's 3.1K had some more mixed $0.7421/26/22 and $0.7431 (100), and 15:58's 1.4K some more mixed $0.7422/26/1. B/a at 15:59 was 100:900 $0.7421/31 and the period and day ended with 15:59's 3.8K more mixed $0.7426/22/21/31, mixed $0.7428/26/27/21/31, and ended with an official close of $0.7422 (and some odd lots $0.7431/$0.75 which aren't allowed to be official) because there was no MM closing trade.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 10 larger trades (>=5K & 1 4K+) totaling 80,033, 37.67% of day's volume, with a $0.7279 VWAP. For the day's volume the count is ... a bit higher than "normal", I guess, but there's no doubt the percentage of day's volume is very high. This is due to a more than normal count of "larger larger trades" (see below). Looking at that, the VWAP being slightly below the day's $0.7297 and the distribution, my best guess is most were covering buys by MMs and/or shorters, who have been covering for a while now according to the short interest reports.
It looks like the "bid walkers" appeared around the end of, or after, the 11:38 period as that period had the lowest VWAP along with the preponderance of larger trades. The pattern fits with what we've seen in the past as the "bid walkers" generally appear after the first couple hours of the session have passed. The question for me is whether it's just a time zone effect or a plan to let the normal early high prices and subsequent drop accomplish some goal and then the "bid walkers" come in to set the stage for the next day. Since I can see from the MMs and quantities involved in moving the bids that the moves are coordinated (whether intentional or just a bot effect) and the behavior is predictable in walking it up to meet the offer less 1/100th of a penny or so followed by a reset and doing it again, I fell strongly that there is some manipulative plan being worked.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:56 9899 $0.7300 $0.7460 $7,279.65 $0.7354 4.66% 32.53%
11:08 28230 $0.7200 $0.7316 $20,478.97 $0.7254 13.29% 17.61% Incl 10:22 $0.7300 5,476
11:38 45704 $0.7210 $0.7252 $33,060.61 $0.7234 21.51% 40.30% Incl 11:15 $0.7251 4,000 $0.7250 10,000
11:20 $0.7242 5,000 11:24 $0.7235
11:26 $0.7213 5,000
11:54 34584 $0.7215 $0.7450 $25,243.41 $0.7299 16.28% 54.35% Incl 11:54 $0.7300 7,567 7,567
12:36 12100 $0.7300 $0.7350 $8,844.51 $0.7310 5.69% 51.12%
12:40 35623 $0.7210 $0.7350 $26,011.39 $0.7302 16.77% 46.76% Incl 12:38 $0.7303 23,900 $0.7300 6,523
14:09 8780 $0.7212 $0.7300 $6,388.24 $0.7276 4.13% 47.95%
15:51 18316 $0.7211 $0.7450 $13,489.38 $0.7365 8.62% 48.40%
15:59 17127 $0.7240 $0.7431 $12,700.18 $0.7415 8.06% 46.75%
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
A higher volume on a down day is not good news regardless of the flat low and high. The close continues the trend lower for the fourth consecutive day now. Note also that the VWAP (see below) have a three-day run lower going on. In aggregate, not a good sign.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -2.67% 0.00% 0.00% -0.12% 85.20%
Prior 0.00% -2.70% -1.32% -0.92% -5.85%
On my minimal chart the most striking thing is that visually it looks as if a consolidating bottom to the trend is forming, but it's only two days and today it came on rising volume, suggesting the down move has growing strength since the volume isn't high enough to signal an end to the trend (capitulation). So I don't really believe that visual "bottoming" hint.
The fast EMA continues to decline, but slowed the rate of descent today. The slow EMA continues declining at a relatively steady rate so far. Nothing yet suggesting the fast could cross above the slow in the near-term though.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, which were descending almost in parallel, now has the lower limit flattening while the upper limit continues descending at a somewhat steady rate, continuing to move the mid-point lower. Trading range was again predominantly below the mid-point.
On my one-year chart all the SMAs continue to decline. i don't see any point right now in detailing how long that will continue in the current scenario. I'll suspend that until something changes.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had weakening in RSI (marginal), Williams %R, full stochastic, and ADX-related. There was marginal improvement in accumulation/distribution, MFI (untrusted by me), and momentum.
Today the trend continued for RSI, Williams %R, full stochastic, and ADX-related. Added to the weakening list was MFI (in oversold and still untrusted by me). Accumulation/distribution and momentum continued to see marginal improvement and the latter is now slightly above neutral.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6958 and $0.7944 ($0.6965 and $0.7972 yesterday), switched to the lower limit flattening while the upper limit continues descending at a somewhat steady rate. The mid-point continues falling.
All in, as I had mentioned, I expected that $0.73 would offer a pause or support. The pause would be just "taking a breather" before continuing whatever trend appeared. I feel that's what the pattern is showing right now, but whether it becomes support or not remains to be seen.
Having said that, the aggregate of rising volume on reducing SMA and EMs with oscillators generally weakening and no apparent support before $0.66 (and that's an untested support), I continue thinking we are entering a near-term consolidation with a negative bias. The real unknown, for me, is where the low of the consolidation range will be.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys didn't move together - short percentage was flat and generally at the middle of my desired range (needs re-check) while buy percentage fell into the "no man's land" area - above suggesting more near-term weakening but below suggesting that some near-term up side could be (not "likely to be") seen.
The spread has finally made it into the range, plus or minus, consistent with consolidation. It's only one day so far so we shouldn't count on it yet.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings again deteriorated, to 17 negatives and 7 positives from 16 and 8 respectively. Change since 12/05 is -$0.2019, -21.67%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.9789%, -0.8671%, -0.6975%, -0.5381%, -0.7327%, -1.0983%, -0.9164%, 0.8671%, and -0.7967%.
All in, no change from current behavior is suggested, but for the spread. That's insufficient for me to suggest a change so I remain at consolidating with a negative bias.
Bill
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