AI
Tuesday, January 10, 2017 8:55:14 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 01/09 2017 EOD
All in I'm holding at entering consolidation with a negative bias although my unconventional stuff doesn't strongly support the negative bias aspect. That has conflicting indications with the short and buy percentages suggesting positive while spread and VWAP behavior are suggesting weakness, especially the VWAP movement. The spread is more neutral but still leaning slightly negative.
The day could be described as flat from 10:45 until the last three minutes of the day took price down a penny or so.
Today began with a typical open high ($0.75), an atypical immediate extreme drop to $0.72, and extremely low/no-volume with bids being walked up began at 9:40 and ending at 10:00 when $0.7290 was hit on the bid while offers held steady at $0.74, just as seen so frequently recently. The cessation at $0.7290, over a penny below the offer was a change though, so this was likely just normal early behavior rather than being the "bid walkers". Regardless, trading range lows kept moving up and at 10:24 it was doing $0.7301/99. "Bid walkers" returned around 10:40 and pushed trading range up to hit $0.75 on 10:45's 14.5K. The offers at $0.75 stuck until 12:00 though and we got no higher.
Then the offers began coming lower, initially $0.7490 at 12:03. This limited the bid walkers activity, apparently, as only one MM presented a bid then for 1.2K. But this lasted only until 12:04's 19.9K cleaned the b/a and the offer returned to $0.75 and the bid walking appeared to cease.
Due to mission accomplished?
In the early trading price penetrated my anticipated $0.73 pause point and moved right back up, but had difficulty, as mentioned above, getting through $0.75, my former support which is now resistance.
Early behavior was heavy to the sell. Note in the intra-day breakdown below how buy percentage jumped up when the bid walkers re-appeared after 10:40 or so. As I guessed in the last couple days, and stated, they aren't there to buy but to force others to buy at higher prices. The walkers were the same four and five MMs as before. Their bots were coordinated, whether intentional or not.
Offers began falling again after the noon hour, similar to what was seen during previous days.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a at 9:22 was 200:37 $0.7202/$0.80 (offers backed by 900 $0.8397).
09:30-10:42 opened the day with a 3,816 sell for $0.75. B/a went immediately to 2.5K:12.2K $0.75/$0.7745. Then came 9:37's 13.5K $0.75/$0.74/$0.7315/02, 9:39's 1.1K $0.74/$0.7200/1, 9:40's 2.8K $0.7399/$0.7201, 9:40's b/a 600:400 $0.7201/$0.74, 9:42's b/a 4K:100 $0.7250/$0.7400, 9:43's 100 $0.7250, 9:49's 2.3K $0.7258/0, 9:54's b/a 500:400 $0.7251/$0.74, 9:55's 100 $0.7399, 9:58's 800 $0.7392/51, 10:00's b/a 2.6K:200 $0.7290/$0.74, 10:02's b/a 2.6K:900 $0.7290/$0.74, 10:01's 1.2K $0.7345/$0.7290, and 10:05's b/a 5.6K:700 $0.7290/$0.74.
That began extremely low/no-volume $0.7301/$0.74. B/a at 10:12 was 2.8K:800 $0.7290/$0.74, 10:15 33:1.1K $0.7301/$0.74 (bid backed by presented 2.8K $0.7290), 10:29 1K:600 $0.7310/$0.74, 10:33 1K:600 $0.7310/$0.74. The period ended on 10:42's 100 $0.7399.
10:43-14:03 began a relatively high-volume limited move up to $0.75 (re-tracing back up to the open), and then began extremely low/no-volume, after 10:43's 700 $0.7400/8. B/a at 10:45 was 100:400 $0.7402/50 and price stepped up when 10:45's 14.5K did $0.7402/50/95/94/95/$0.75. Then 10:49's 15K did $0.7420 (5K)/$0.75 (10K blk). B/a at 10:50 was 1.3K:4.2K $0.7423/$0.75 (bid walkers moving the bids up quickly), 10:57 1.2K:4.2K $0.7442/$0.75 (bids still rising quickly), 10:02 900:4.3K $0.7461/$0.75, 10:05 400:4.4K $0.7470/$0.75. The bids followed the previously seen patterns and after 11:05'S 2.8k $0.7488/$0.75/$0.7471/13 the bids reset, giving 10:12's b/a of 1.5K:4.4k $0.7414/$0.75. B/a at 11:18 was 1.5K:4.2K $0.7416/$0.75, 11:41 2.2K:1K $0.7432/$0.75, 11:50 800:900 $0.7463/$0.75 (bids moving quickly again) and 12:03 1.2K (1 MM)/500 $0.7414/$0.790.
Volume was interrupted by 12:04's 19.9K $0.7490/$0.75/$0.7414/$0.75 (all but 1.4K $0.75). This seemed to stop the bid walking. Mission accomplished? B/a at 12:10 was 4.4K:900 $9.7418/$0.75, 12:21 1,8K:900 $0.7418/$0.75, 12:32 300:800 $0.7420/$0.75, 12:47 2.7K:300 $0.7419/81, 13:02 1.4K:1K $0.7422/$0.75, 2.3K:2.1K $0.7427/$0.75, 13:36 1.8K:900 $0.7437/75, 13:47 1.5K:800 $0.7470/5, 14:02 1.6K:700 $0.7471/5. The period ended on 14:03's ~1.8K (Yep!) $0.7473/1/3/5.
14:04-15:38, after ten no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.7418/75 on 14:14's 1.6K $0.7473/1/3/5. B/a at 14:11 was 2.6K:300 $0.7418/75, 14:32 2.4K:200 $0.7421/75, 14:49 2K:200 $0.7421/75. Range became $0.7422/71 on 14:53's 400 $0.75/22. B/a at 14:59 was 2.4K:300 $0.7423/71, 15:02 1.1K:300 $0.7423/71, 15:14 1.8K:8/9K $0.7425/71, 15:33 1K:100 $0.7420/63, 15:42 1.7K:8.2K $0.7423/71 (bids bouncing up/down $0.7419/23), 15:51 400:8.2K $0.7420/60. The period ended on 15:38's 100 $0.7463.
15:39-15:59, after nineteen no-trades minutes, began the EOD volatility doing 15:57's 1K $0.7460/02, 15:58's 3.4K $0.7431/02/31/04/03/32/04/ ... 06/05/02/01/31/02/31, 15:59's 2.1K $0.7403/00/01/02/31/02/ ... 02/31 and, because there was no MM closing trade, the day and period ended on 15:59's close at $0.7431.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 6 larger trades (>=5K & 2 4K+) totaling 33,900, 29.55% of day's volume, with a $0.7449 VWAP. Considering the trade volume, the count seems reasonable and the percentage is just a wee bit on the high side vs. "normal". The VWAP is marginally higher than the day's $0.7445. I can't read anything at all into that no matter how hard I try.
There's no way to know and with the "bid walkers" again present I can't even make a plausible guess.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
But that's all it is - a hope. We know how this stock has behaved and that there's been fundamental change insufficient to cause a change in market sentiment. Until then this stock is "Dead Man Walking" I think.
On my minimal chart yesterday I noted it was still too early to assess which near-term outcome is developing - beginning of a roll over, "taking a breather" before continuing the trend or just entering a sideways consolidation. Today's behavior makes two seem more likely - continuing the roll over (i.e. down, down, down) or sideways consolidation. With the volume where it is today and the intra-day rebound back above $0.73 it still leaves us in limbo. The volume says no strength to the downside but the intra-day behavior and the lower "everything else but the volume" says rolling over to move down.
Let's hope the volume, which is known as "the truth teller", is telling the truth today.
The fast EMA, which had flattened out for a day, has hooked lower and we know we won't see a cross above the slow EMA any time soon. Yesterday I noted trading was { ... wrapped around the descending fast EMA vs. yesterday's slow EMA. } Today range was topped at the descending fast EMA and the rest of the range was below. Keeping in mind the high open, that means all but the earliest trades were below the fast EMA today.
Again, it suggests more near-term downside is most likely. If we push through $0.73 again I'm afraid we won't bounce back above it then.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits are now descending almost in parallel, continuing to move the mid=point lower. Trading range was again predominantly below the mid-point.
On my one-year chart all the SMAs continue to decline. If our price stays in this range the 10-day will continue declining 2 more days, the 20-day for again 12 more days, the 50-day again holding at 42 days, and the 200 day essentially continuously (but visually guesstimating ~180 days) for now.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had marginal weakening in RSI, momentum, and ADX-related, improvement in MFI (marginal & untrusted by me), Williams %R, and full stochastic (marginal). Accumulation/distribution was flat.
Today had weakening in RSI (marginal), Williams %R, full stochastic, and ADX-related. There was marginal improvement in accumulation/distribution, MFI (untrusted by me), and momentum.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6965 and $0.7972 ($0.6964 and $0.8030 yesterday), continue converging with a falling mid-point.
All in, the combination of continuing lower highs and lows, the intra-day breakdown showing strength only because of the "bid walkers" presence, the oscillators I watch having a majority weakening, and continuing reducing volume leaves no sign of near-term bullishness. The low volume offers hope of a reversal but I think in combination with the other factors is really just a symptom of entering short-term consolidation.
I hold at expecting that with a negative near-term bias.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved again in the same direction, both higher, and short percentage is about the middle of my desired range (needs re-check) while buy percentage is up to where sustainable price appreciation is possible. It's unfortunate that the buy percentage again appears to be a result of the "bid walkers", who don't buy but force others to do if they want shares so I guess, and puts the buy percentage in the camp of suspected metrics today.
The spread widened due to an open high and early big drop. It's not excessive but is in the range that would lean toward suggesting more weakness when the trend is lower, as it is right now.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings again deteriorated, to 16 negatives and 8 positives from 15 and 9 respectively. Change since 12/02 is -$0.1807, -19.53%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.8671%, -0.6975%, -0.5381%, -0.7327%, -1.0983%, -0.9164%, 0.8671%, -0.7967%, and -0.7936%.
All in, the conflicting signals - short percentage and buy percentage good with spread and VWAP bad, on reducing volume still leaves of bereft of a strong positive indication. In combination, I think it's more typical of consolidation. I can't really say it suggests a negative bias though.
Bill
All in I'm holding at entering consolidation with a negative bias although my unconventional stuff doesn't strongly support the negative bias aspect. That has conflicting indications with the short and buy percentages suggesting positive while spread and VWAP behavior are suggesting weakness, especially the VWAP movement. The spread is more neutral but still leaning slightly negative.
The day could be described as flat from 10:45 until the last three minutes of the day took price down a penny or so.
Today began with a typical open high ($0.75), an atypical immediate extreme drop to $0.72, and extremely low/no-volume with bids being walked up began at 9:40 and ending at 10:00 when $0.7290 was hit on the bid while offers held steady at $0.74, just as seen so frequently recently. The cessation at $0.7290, over a penny below the offer was a change though, so this was likely just normal early behavior rather than being the "bid walkers". Regardless, trading range lows kept moving up and at 10:24 it was doing $0.7301/99. "Bid walkers" returned around 10:40 and pushed trading range up to hit $0.75 on 10:45's 14.5K. The offers at $0.75 stuck until 12:00 though and we got no higher.
Then the offers began coming lower, initially $0.7490 at 12:03. This limited the bid walkers activity, apparently, as only one MM presented a bid then for 1.2K. But this lasted only until 12:04's 19.9K cleaned the b/a and the offer returned to $0.75 and the bid walking appeared to cease.
Due to mission accomplished?
In the early trading price penetrated my anticipated $0.73 pause point and moved right back up, but had difficulty, as mentioned above, getting through $0.75, my former support which is now resistance.
Early behavior was heavy to the sell. Note in the intra-day breakdown below how buy percentage jumped up when the bid walkers re-appeared after 10:40 or so. As I guessed in the last couple days, and stated, they aren't there to buy but to force others to buy at higher prices. The walkers were the same four and five MMs as before. Their bots were coordinated, whether intentional or not.
Offers began falling again after the noon hour, similar to what was seen during previous days.
There were no pre-market trades.
B/a at 9:22 was 200:37 $0.7202/$0.80 (offers backed by 900 $0.8397).
09:30-10:42 opened the day with a 3,816 sell for $0.75. B/a went immediately to 2.5K:12.2K $0.75/$0.7745. Then came 9:37's 13.5K $0.75/$0.74/$0.7315/02, 9:39's 1.1K $0.74/$0.7200/1, 9:40's 2.8K $0.7399/$0.7201, 9:40's b/a 600:400 $0.7201/$0.74, 9:42's b/a 4K:100 $0.7250/$0.7400, 9:43's 100 $0.7250, 9:49's 2.3K $0.7258/0, 9:54's b/a 500:400 $0.7251/$0.74, 9:55's 100 $0.7399, 9:58's 800 $0.7392/51, 10:00's b/a 2.6K:200 $0.7290/$0.74, 10:02's b/a 2.6K:900 $0.7290/$0.74, 10:01's 1.2K $0.7345/$0.7290, and 10:05's b/a 5.6K:700 $0.7290/$0.74.
That began extremely low/no-volume $0.7301/$0.74. B/a at 10:12 was 2.8K:800 $0.7290/$0.74, 10:15 33:1.1K $0.7301/$0.74 (bid backed by presented 2.8K $0.7290), 10:29 1K:600 $0.7310/$0.74, 10:33 1K:600 $0.7310/$0.74. The period ended on 10:42's 100 $0.7399.
10:43-14:03 began a relatively high-volume limited move up to $0.75 (re-tracing back up to the open), and then began extremely low/no-volume, after 10:43's 700 $0.7400/8. B/a at 10:45 was 100:400 $0.7402/50 and price stepped up when 10:45's 14.5K did $0.7402/50/95/94/95/$0.75. Then 10:49's 15K did $0.7420 (5K)/$0.75 (10K blk). B/a at 10:50 was 1.3K:4.2K $0.7423/$0.75 (bid walkers moving the bids up quickly), 10:57 1.2K:4.2K $0.7442/$0.75 (bids still rising quickly), 10:02 900:4.3K $0.7461/$0.75, 10:05 400:4.4K $0.7470/$0.75. The bids followed the previously seen patterns and after 11:05'S 2.8k $0.7488/$0.75/$0.7471/13 the bids reset, giving 10:12's b/a of 1.5K:4.4k $0.7414/$0.75. B/a at 11:18 was 1.5K:4.2K $0.7416/$0.75, 11:41 2.2K:1K $0.7432/$0.75, 11:50 800:900 $0.7463/$0.75 (bids moving quickly again) and 12:03 1.2K (1 MM)/500 $0.7414/$0.790.
Volume was interrupted by 12:04's 19.9K $0.7490/$0.75/$0.7414/$0.75 (all but 1.4K $0.75). This seemed to stop the bid walking. Mission accomplished? B/a at 12:10 was 4.4K:900 $9.7418/$0.75, 12:21 1,8K:900 $0.7418/$0.75, 12:32 300:800 $0.7420/$0.75, 12:47 2.7K:300 $0.7419/81, 13:02 1.4K:1K $0.7422/$0.75, 2.3K:2.1K $0.7427/$0.75, 13:36 1.8K:900 $0.7437/75, 13:47 1.5K:800 $0.7470/5, 14:02 1.6K:700 $0.7471/5. The period ended on 14:03's ~1.8K (Yep!) $0.7473/1/3/5.
14:04-15:38, after ten no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.7418/75 on 14:14's 1.6K $0.7473/1/3/5. B/a at 14:11 was 2.6K:300 $0.7418/75, 14:32 2.4K:200 $0.7421/75, 14:49 2K:200 $0.7421/75. Range became $0.7422/71 on 14:53's 400 $0.75/22. B/a at 14:59 was 2.4K:300 $0.7423/71, 15:02 1.1K:300 $0.7423/71, 15:14 1.8K:8/9K $0.7425/71, 15:33 1K:100 $0.7420/63, 15:42 1.7K:8.2K $0.7423/71 (bids bouncing up/down $0.7419/23), 15:51 400:8.2K $0.7420/60. The period ended on 15:38's 100 $0.7463.
15:39-15:59, after nineteen no-trades minutes, began the EOD volatility doing 15:57's 1K $0.7460/02, 15:58's 3.4K $0.7431/02/31/04/03/32/04/ ... 06/05/02/01/31/02/31, 15:59's 2.1K $0.7403/00/01/02/31/02/ ... 02/31 and, because there was no MM closing trade, the day and period ended on 15:59's close at $0.7431.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 6 larger trades (>=5K & 2 4K+) totaling 33,900, 29.55% of day's volume, with a $0.7449 VWAP. Considering the trade volume, the count seems reasonable and the percentage is just a wee bit on the high side vs. "normal". The VWAP is marginally higher than the day's $0.7445. I can't read anything at all into that no matter how hard I try.
Looking at almost 90% of the trade volume done by 14:03 we surmise that trading was effectively done for the day and the rest was just a Battle of the Bots. What is notable is that those larger trades in the second period were strongly biased to the buy side as they pushed the buy percentage up noticeably. I wonder if it was shorters or MMs doing covering buys at attractive prices.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:42 32367 $0.7200 $0.7500 $23,875.97 $0.7377 28.21% 19.06% Incl 09:37 $0.7400 4,000 $0.7315 4,900
14:03 70573 $0.7400 $0.7500 $52,782.70 $0.7479 61.51% 57.73% Incl 10:45 5,000 $0.7495 $0.7500
10:49 $0.7420 5,000 $0.7500 10,000
15:38 4420 $0.7418 $0.7475 $3,290.96 $0.7446 3.85% 57.48%
15:59 6500 $0.7400 $0.7460 $4,817.66 $0.7412 5.67% 54.58%
There's no way to know and with the "bid walkers" again present I can't even make a plausible guess.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
The movement lower was predicted yesterday: { The nearest likely range low is $0.73 and the other is $0.66 if we do a 100% re-trace. I consider that less likely so far, especially if the "bid walkers" continue to appear. }. Our low went through $0.73 to $0.72 and came right back up - the "pause". The "bid walkers" did come in again and may have saved us from hitting $0.66 ... So far! The volume being so low offers the hope that we won't see $0.66 any time soon regardless of the "bid walkers".__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 0.00% -2.70% -1.32% -0.92% -5.85%
Prior -2.60% 2.78% -5.00% -1.33% -47.69%
But that's all it is - a hope. We know how this stock has behaved and that there's been fundamental change insufficient to cause a change in market sentiment. Until then this stock is "Dead Man Walking" I think.
On my minimal chart yesterday I noted it was still too early to assess which near-term outcome is developing - beginning of a roll over, "taking a breather" before continuing the trend or just entering a sideways consolidation. Today's behavior makes two seem more likely - continuing the roll over (i.e. down, down, down) or sideways consolidation. With the volume where it is today and the intra-day rebound back above $0.73 it still leaves us in limbo. The volume says no strength to the downside but the intra-day behavior and the lower "everything else but the volume" says rolling over to move down.
Let's hope the volume, which is known as "the truth teller", is telling the truth today.
The fast EMA, which had flattened out for a day, has hooked lower and we know we won't see a cross above the slow EMA any time soon. Yesterday I noted trading was { ... wrapped around the descending fast EMA vs. yesterday's slow EMA. } Today range was topped at the descending fast EMA and the rest of the range was below. Keeping in mind the high open, that means all but the earliest trades were below the fast EMA today.
Again, it suggests more near-term downside is most likely. If we push through $0.73 again I'm afraid we won't bounce back above it then.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits are now descending almost in parallel, continuing to move the mid=point lower. Trading range was again predominantly below the mid-point.
On my one-year chart all the SMAs continue to decline. If our price stays in this range the 10-day will continue declining 2 more days, the 20-day for again 12 more days, the 50-day again holding at 42 days, and the 200 day essentially continuously (but visually guesstimating ~180 days) for now.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had marginal weakening in RSI, momentum, and ADX-related, improvement in MFI (marginal & untrusted by me), Williams %R, and full stochastic (marginal). Accumulation/distribution was flat.
Today had weakening in RSI (marginal), Williams %R, full stochastic, and ADX-related. There was marginal improvement in accumulation/distribution, MFI (untrusted by me), and momentum.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6965 and $0.7972 ($0.6964 and $0.8030 yesterday), continue converging with a falling mid-point.
All in, the combination of continuing lower highs and lows, the intra-day breakdown showing strength only because of the "bid walkers" presence, the oscillators I watch having a majority weakening, and continuing reducing volume leaves no sign of near-term bullishness. The low volume offers hope of a reversal but I think in combination with the other factors is really just a symptom of entering short-term consolidation.
I hold at expecting that with a negative near-term bias.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved again in the same direction, both higher, and short percentage is about the middle of my desired range (needs re-check) while buy percentage is up to where sustainable price appreciation is possible. It's unfortunate that the buy percentage again appears to be a result of the "bid walkers", who don't buy but force others to do if they want shares so I guess, and puts the buy percentage in the camp of suspected metrics today.
The spread widened due to an open high and early big drop. It's not excessive but is in the range that would lean toward suggesting more weakness when the trend is lower, as it is right now.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings again deteriorated, to 16 negatives and 8 positives from 15 and 9 respectively. Change since 12/02 is -$0.1807, -19.53%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.8671%, -0.6975%, -0.5381%, -0.7327%, -1.0983%, -0.9164%, 0.8671%, -0.7967%, and -0.7936%.
All in, the conflicting signals - short percentage and buy percentage good with spread and VWAP bad, on reducing volume still leaves of bereft of a strong positive indication. In combination, I think it's more typical of consolidation. I can't really say it suggests a negative bias though.
Bill
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