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Saturday, January 07, 2017 7:17:36 AM
Where Will Platinum, Palladium Prices Go In 2017?
Where Will Platinum, Palladium Prices Go In 2017?
By Teresa Rivas
Last year was a difficult one for platinum, and at the start of 2016, a rebound in prices might have made investors optimistic about a long-term rally. However, that wasn’t to be, writes HSBC’s James Steel, as the metal’s price has declined steadily since August.
Nonetheless, while volatility is likely to continue, there are factors that should keep the metal from falling too much more, he argues.
This year a strong US dollar, lower jewelry demand, and investors’ shifting positioning weighed on platinum. Yet Steel writes that platinum is still in the black for the year, and there are still some support factors out there for its prices—and reason to expect plenty of ups and downs in 2017.
He cites five main forces: Limited mine output, rise from the auto industry related to tighter emissions standards in emerging markets, some recovery in ETF and Comex long holdings, Japan accumulating bars more slowly after a buying spree in 2015, and lackluster jewelry demand with only slight recovery from China.
He writes:
We lower our 2017 and 2018 average price forecasts for platinum to USD1,075/oz and USD1,225/oz, respectively, from USD1,195/oz and USD1,300/oz, respectively. We introduce an average price forecast for 2019 of USD1,325/oz and maintain our long-term forecast at USD1,450/oz. We anticipate an USD880/oz to USD1,185/oz range for 2017.
However the picture looks brighter for palladium:
Palladium has outperformed all other precious metals this year and tends to trade independent of the rest of the precious metals complex. It is impacted more by industrial demand and less by monetary policies and risk sentiment. A sharply widening deficit according to our supply/demand model is likely to propel palladium higher as scope for mine output remains limited and industrial and auto demand firm.
A cessation in the heavy ETF selling of 2015 and 2016 will afford palladium the opportunity to rally. Palladium may also benefit from any wider investor return to safe-haven assets in 2017.
The ETFS Physical Platinum Shares(PPLT) and the ETFS Physical Palladium Shares ETF (PALL) were lower in recent trading, while the ETFS Physical PM Basket (GLTR) was flat.
http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2016/12/23/where-will-platinum-palladium-prices-go-in-2017/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo
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Is Palladium Going to Be the Precious Metal Winner for 2017?
By Meera Shawn | Nov 28, 2016 4:30 pm EST
A possible deficit for palladium
Palladium seems to be the winner among precious metals for 2017 so far. As of November 21, 2017, palladium had a whopping rise of 32.5% year-to-date. That figure is far higher than the rises in gold, silver, and platinum. Platinum has the least year-to-date rise so far among the four precious metals.
There’s a lot of noise in the market about the possibility of a deficit in the palladium market. The demand for palladium looks like it’s clearly outpacing the supply. Palladium prices may be clearly reacting to this fundamental calling.
Some analysts have been suggesting for many years that palladium has a structural imbalance. Sooner or later, they’ve argued, palladium will face a supply deficit.
http://marketrealist.com/2016/11/is-palladium-going-to-be-the-precious-metal-winner-for-2017/
Where Will Platinum, Palladium Prices Go In 2017?
By Teresa Rivas
Last year was a difficult one for platinum, and at the start of 2016, a rebound in prices might have made investors optimistic about a long-term rally. However, that wasn’t to be, writes HSBC’s James Steel, as the metal’s price has declined steadily since August.
Nonetheless, while volatility is likely to continue, there are factors that should keep the metal from falling too much more, he argues.
This year a strong US dollar, lower jewelry demand, and investors’ shifting positioning weighed on platinum. Yet Steel writes that platinum is still in the black for the year, and there are still some support factors out there for its prices—and reason to expect plenty of ups and downs in 2017.
He cites five main forces: Limited mine output, rise from the auto industry related to tighter emissions standards in emerging markets, some recovery in ETF and Comex long holdings, Japan accumulating bars more slowly after a buying spree in 2015, and lackluster jewelry demand with only slight recovery from China.
He writes:
We lower our 2017 and 2018 average price forecasts for platinum to USD1,075/oz and USD1,225/oz, respectively, from USD1,195/oz and USD1,300/oz, respectively. We introduce an average price forecast for 2019 of USD1,325/oz and maintain our long-term forecast at USD1,450/oz. We anticipate an USD880/oz to USD1,185/oz range for 2017.
However the picture looks brighter for palladium:
Palladium has outperformed all other precious metals this year and tends to trade independent of the rest of the precious metals complex. It is impacted more by industrial demand and less by monetary policies and risk sentiment. A sharply widening deficit according to our supply/demand model is likely to propel palladium higher as scope for mine output remains limited and industrial and auto demand firm.
A cessation in the heavy ETF selling of 2015 and 2016 will afford palladium the opportunity to rally. Palladium may also benefit from any wider investor return to safe-haven assets in 2017.
The ETFS Physical Platinum Shares(PPLT) and the ETFS Physical Palladium Shares ETF (PALL) were lower in recent trading, while the ETFS Physical PM Basket (GLTR) was flat.
http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2016/12/23/where-will-platinum-palladium-prices-go-in-2017/?mod=yahoobarrons&ru=yahoo
xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx
Is Palladium Going to Be the Precious Metal Winner for 2017?
By Meera Shawn | Nov 28, 2016 4:30 pm EST
A possible deficit for palladium
Palladium seems to be the winner among precious metals for 2017 so far. As of November 21, 2017, palladium had a whopping rise of 32.5% year-to-date. That figure is far higher than the rises in gold, silver, and platinum. Platinum has the least year-to-date rise so far among the four precious metals.
There’s a lot of noise in the market about the possibility of a deficit in the palladium market. The demand for palladium looks like it’s clearly outpacing the supply. Palladium prices may be clearly reacting to this fundamental calling.
Some analysts have been suggesting for many years that palladium has a structural imbalance. Sooner or later, they’ve argued, palladium will face a supply deficit.
http://marketrealist.com/2016/11/is-palladium-going-to-be-the-precious-metal-winner-for-2017/
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