Vascular Biogenics Ltd (VBLT)

[NewMember]

I'm a new member here. I enjoyed reading many insights on the board. Here's some calculation I did with regard to timing of interim & final trial results.

Based on VBLT SEC doc ( page 92 ), event/deaths for high ( n=17) vs low dose (n=16).

Mos 9 # of "event"/deaths =50% low vs 40% high dosage arm.
Mos 12 = 65% low dosage vs 45% high dosage arm.
Mos 15 = 75% low vs 50% high
Mos 18 = 90% low vs 50% high.

Above data was based on phase 2 which had low numbers of participants. Explapolating same percentage to 256 member phase 3 trial. If above same percentage holds,

At mos 9, expect 115 deaths total= release of interim data = Q2 2017
At mos 15, 2/3 deaths=172 ( 75% of control; 50% of VBL group)
At mos 18, 70% death=179 ( 90% of control; 50% VBL group)= release of final data = 2018.

I believe mos 18 is where we will see impact of VBL 111 - nearly half survive 18+ mos vs. less than 10% from control arm.