Conatus Pharmaceuticals Inc. (CNAT)

[staccani]

From the below link 2014 global liver transplants were 26K. With 1.2M ca deaths due to liver cirrhosis and ca 4-5M decompensated patients globally (avg death rate at 1 year for decompensated patients , ie stage3/4 is between 20% and 57%) the total potential market for a life saving therapy (evidently just a tiny fraction is able to do a transplant) is 4.5M x $100K (this is what immunoncology drugs cost as avg with similar 1 year death rates in cancer) = $450B annually.
Of course just a small fraction of these patients/NHS/NI's/Insurance would be able to afford a $100K/year drug, but even assuming a 5% penetration in this potential market segment, we are still talking about ca $30B revenue annually or ca $7B in annual royatlies to CNAT (most of which would fall to the borrom line). And that would be just in the LC decompensated patients, w/o considering the high Portal Pressure segment and the Liver Fibrosis segment. The market potential is impressive. All it takes for Emricasan is to be able to stop LC progression. In fact it showed in the past trial it was able to IMPROVE Liver functionality (MELD score ) and reduce Portal Pressure (HPVG) in Liver Cirrhosis. Novartis has seen the potential and made a good deal. The market is at the moment just overlooking this opportunity with a ridicolous market cap of $130M, of which $85M in cash and no debt, and a multi billion $$ deal with Novartis coming our way
http://www.transplant-observatory.org/