Friday, January 06, 2017 9:13:10 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 01/05 2017 EOD
In aggregate, the (un)conventional TA stuff leaves me feeling the up trend is over and a new trend will appear. Combined with my "three-day window" and watching the intra-day behavior weaken when the "bid walkers" are apparently absent , I'm left with a sideways at best and weakening most likely as my near-term expectations.
The day began with a typical open high ($0.77) and go higher ($0.7978/$0.80) in the early trade, through ~9:52, and then a rapid very low/no-volume drop back down to $0.7702 by 9:53. That was followed by very low/no-volume $0.7702/3-$0.7814 (briefly) with sagging highs through 10:37 when the highs hit $0.7750. Then through ~13:06 trade was mostly extremely low/no-volume $0.7702/39, with falling highs ending at $0.7703, and then through 15:53, prior to EOD volatility start, mostly extremely low/no-volume $0.7729/50. The EOD volatility dropped price ~1.7% to $0.76 and the day closed at $0.7601.
A difference from the usual manipulation scenarios is that the infrequent interspersed high-volume minutes did generally not move price in a big way, either up or down. A few of them did move buy percentage noticeably though.
This looked a lot like the beginning of a consolidation entry. It probably won't manifest right at this price range, but will have a small move up or down with low(er?) volume. A good part of this assessment is that today's volume was down ~29.5% on closing price down 6.49%. I expect my unconventional stuff will show a lower VWAP too, but with a magnitude of change quite a bit smaller. I'll guess, without peeking, about 3.5%.
AFAICT the "bid walkers" did not appear today. They were however replaced by "offer droppers", not an apparent organized effort, but rather it appeared like folks trying to exit as slowly, carefully and profitably as possible. Might even be careful shorters dripping into the market to realize as high a price as possible?
The short form of that is that it looked like real market activity, albeit controlled by the MMs in certain regards, wherein some buyers patiently awaited a fill at their pre-determined price and sellers reluctantly moved down to rid themselves of unwanted shares at the best price they thought they might realize.
How refreshing!
Unfortunately, it was not bullish in nature.
There was one pre-market trade of $0.77 x 500 at 9:16.
B/a at 9:15 was 100:500 $0.7502/$0.77, 9:29 100:536 $0.7502/$0.80.
Early action looked like the old "Open high and set an early higher", and as if the market was awaiting the appearance of the "bid walkers".
09:30-10:37 opened the day with a 5,131 sell for $0.77 and 12,250 more for $0.77. B/a right after open was 21K:788 $0.77/$0.80. Then came 9:32's b/a 21K:788 $0.77/$0.80, 9:41's 400 $0.77/$0.7841/$0.7701, 9:47's b/a 300:688 $0.7701/$0.80, 9:48's 4.4K $0.7964, 9:49's b/a 100:687 $0.7702/$0.80, 9:51's 1K $0.80, 9:52's b/a 200:3.5K $0.7702/$0.80, 9:52's 200 $0.7976/$0.80, 9:53's 200 $0.7702/3, 9:54's b/a 100:5.1K $0.7703/$0.80, 9:55's 1.5K $0.7715 (~1.4K)/02, 9:56's b/a 100:5.1K $0.7702/$0.80, 9:58's 1.1K $0.80/$0.7797 (500 ea.)/$0.7702, 9:59's 100 $0.7702, 9:59's b/a 100:4.7K $0.7702/$0.80, 10:02's 1.6K $0.7799/$0.78 (600), 10:03's 100 $0.7702, 10:06's b/a 300:400 $0.7702/$0.7814, 10:06's 1.1K $0.7732/03 (100), 10:07's b/a 200:300 $0.7703/$0.7814, 10:15's 100 $0.7814, 10:17's b/a 200:300 $0.7703/$0.7814, 10:19's 100 $0.7703, 10:20's 1.1K $0.7703/$0.78 (1K), 10:25's b/a 500:96 $0.7703/$0.7813 (offer backed by presented 200 $0.7814, 10:25's 100 $0.7703, 10:26's 600 $0.7771/04 (100), 10:28's 1K $0.7704, 10:31's 200 $0.7718, 10:32's 5K $0.78, 10:33's 100 $0.7751, 10:33's b/a 300:2.3K $0.7751/99, 10:36's 4.2K $0.7751/00/18/00, and the period ended on 10:37's 21.3K $0.7750/02 (13.3K).
10:38-12:34, after one no-trades minute, began verylow/no-volume $0.7702/39, with very slowly declining highs, on 10:39's 10K $0.7702. 10:46 saw volume switch to extremely low/no-volume. B/a at 10:47 was 1.1K:700 $0.7702/39, 10:49 1.1K:1.2K $0.7702/39, 11:02 705:500 $0.7702/39, 11:02 705:500 $0.7702/39, 11:17 105:600 $0.7702/37, 11:23 20.8K:1.5K $0.7700/37, 11:25 20.8K:2.3K $0.7700/36 (MMs rattling the offers $0.7736/7 (5K), not the bids), 11:32 20.8K:1K $0.7700/33 (MMs rattling offers again), 11:37 20.9K:100 $0.7700/32 (MMs rattling offers again), 11:38 20.7K:1.7K $0.7700/31.
Offers began dropping more rapidly here. B/a at 11:42 was 20.7K:1.5K $0.7700/23 (MMs still rattling offers), 11:55 18.1K:1.2K $0.7700/9, 11:57 18.1K:1K $0.7700/5, 12:02 16.1K:100 $0.7700/4, 12:07 15.6K:100 $0.7700/3, 12:17 11.1K:400 $0.7700/3, 12:34 10K:1K $0.7700/4. The period ended on 12:34's 100 $0.77.
The period end led to a "reset" of the offers to a higher level. The offers quickly began sagging again.
12:35-13:07 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7700/49, with the highs rapidly moving to $0.7729/30, after 12:35's 2.7K $0.7704/06/2540/50/00 (200). B/a at 12:41 was 10K:1.1K $0.7700/49 (was $0.7750 but I missed the post of it), 12:44 10K:700 $0.7700/29, 12:54 10K:700 $0.7700/29, 13:02 10K:700 $0.7700/29. The period ended on 13:07's 1,2K $0.7720/9.
Could this next b/a be the appearance of the "bid walkers? Rather late if so. It looks more like either supporting a bottom price (only because it never moved) or a real order as it started with an EDGX 20K size that got slowly nibbled away. Might be a real order, which I'm sure we all welcome.
13:08-15:52 began an extremely low/no-volume $0.7729/30 agonizingly slow rise on 13:13's 100 $0.7729. B/a at 13:15 was 20K:1.3K, $0.7729/30, 13:28 19.2K:1K $0.7729/30, 13:34 19.2K:300 $0.7729/30. 13:40 put range to $0.7729/40. B/a at 13:47 was 19.2K:1K $0.7729/35, 14:03 19.2K:100 $0.7729/33, 14:20 17K:200 $0.7729/30, 14:38 16.8K:100 $0.7729/32. 15:01 moved range to $0.7729/50. B/a at 15:02 was 16.7K:500 $0.7729/49 (offers being jiggled .49/.50), 15:15 16/7K:600 $0.7729/47. Volume was interrupted by 15:24's 8.4K $0.7750. B/a at 15:27 was 100:900 $0.7740/8, 15:32 100:1.1K $0.7740/8, 15:39 15.5K:900 $0.7729/50, 15:40 15.1K:800 $0.7729/49 (offers jiggled), 15:47 100:900 $0.7741/4. The period ended on 15:52's 600 $0.7729.
15:53-16:00 began a relatively high-volume EOD volatility on 15:53's 700 $0.7729/39 and then doing a ~1.7% sag lower on 15:54's 900 $0.7729/00 (100), 15:55's 6.4K $0.7700/1/ ... 17/28/50/33/50/33 ... 37/38/00, 15:56's 12.1K $0.7744/00/$0.7650, 15:57's 11.1K $0.7650/00/97, 15:58's 1.2K $7600/98/00/98/00, and ending the period and day on 15:59's 8.1K $0.7600/97/96/97/48/49/97/96/98, and 16:00's 3.9K $0.7601.
There was one AH 430 share sell for $0.72 at 18:04:32. This was 5.27% below the close. It came earlier and was of a size different from those I normally suspect of being manipulative in intent.
Including the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 10 larger trades (>=5K & 2 4K+) totaling 83,723, 35.94% of day's volume, with a $0.7719 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there were 9 larger trades totaling 79,623, 34.18% of day's volume, with a $0.7718 VWAP. The count seems normal but the percentage of day's volume is high. I think it's because we had a larger than normal number of "larger larger trades". The VWAPs are both below the day's $0.7725. Combined with the following low buy percentages, VWAP when most larger trades went off, and the trends of the buy percentages and VWAPs, I think most of the larger trades were selling into strength to retail buyers. This assessment could be supported by the daily short percentage (see below), which is above the normal range.
N.B. The low movement below results from the AH trade detailed above. If the official $0.76 low is used the movement would be 2.70%, a big difference.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
On my minimal chart, yesterday I said, in part, { ... Although today's end results cast doubt upon my assessment, the appearance of these folks strengths [sic] my belief in my assessment that we have manipulation to accomplish some short-term goal that will not be sustained. } The third day in this move higher is the first to close lower than it opened and initiated declining volume. We still got a higher open and high but accompanied by a lower low (higher if we use the official low) and close. This is one of the early signs of the possible beginning of a roll over. But don't do as I do so often and be too early - it's also an early sign that we might be "taking a breather" before continuing the trend or just entering a sideways consolidation.
Regarding a potential cross of the fast above the slow EMA, yesterday I said { This is still playing out with the fast EMA still rising and the gap between the fast and slow EMAs still narrowing. } Nothing changed yet and I still don't foresee a sustained cross. In fact, if my thinking about rolling over, or even entering a sideways consolidation, is right I don't think we'll get even a one-day cross.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits are still converging. It still looks like the limits are converging toward the center at roughly the same rate, keeping the mid-point about static. Our trading range today moved above that mid-point. I note also that it's wrapped around the descending slow EMA.
On my one-year chart all the SMAs continue to decline. If our price stays in this range the 10-day will continue declining 7 more days, the 20-day for 13 more days, the 50-day 42 days, and the 200 day essentially continuously (but visually guesstimating ~180 days) for now.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had improvement in RSI, accumulation/distribution, MFI (still oversold & still untrusted by me), momentum, Williams %R, full stochastic, and ADX-related.
The oscillators today had weakening in RSI, momentum, and accumulation/distribution. Those items are below neutral. Improvement was seen in MFI (untrusted by me), which exited oversold (barely), Williams %R (just above neutral), full stochastic (nearing overbought), and ADX-related (nearing a neutral stance).
Yesterday I noted { Combined with rising volume this all should result in continued upward movement. } Ignoring the AH trade and close, it was an up day, as indicated by the VWAP rising 0.93% (see below). Using the traditional metric, the close, it was a down day. Considering most oscillators were improved one could argue it was indeed an up day. But we know the traditional metric is the close, so down.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6913 and $0.8178 ($0.6776 and $0.8470 yesterday) are still converging at a roughly equal rate towards the mid-point, which is fairly static.
All in, the conventional TA indicators giving mixed oscillators, a lower close, reducing volume, Bollinger mid-point sort of static, apparent lack of the "bid walkers" today, and the behavior shown in the intra-day breakdown above all make me think the move up is over for now. What comes next, whether sideways or a move down, as we enter the expected (by me) consolidation is still not to be guessed at. I could be wrong and we might resume the upward movement, but combined with my "three-day window" thoughts I think that less likely.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions and the short percentage is above my desired range (needs re-check). The buy percentage (reminder: I use the 15:59 reading because I don't know the meaning of the MM closing trade) is in a range that allows price appreciation but doesn't support sustained appreciation.
In aggregate, I consider the short percentage to be the "tell" today - it's been on the rise since the big price drop and has now exceeded what I believe is the normal range. That's not good.
The spread is very wide (using the AH trade) and would suggest more upside if we had a rising-volume trend up going. We don't because volume is retreating and, using the conventional close, we are not in the up-trend now.
Using the "official" low, the spread would be only 5.26%, just a bit smaller than yesterday's. In my eyes this would be a continuation of a move suggesting a trend is running out of steam and, in my assessment, heading for consolidation or reversal, which can be part of a consolidation of course.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held steady at 14 negatives and 10 positives. Change since 11/30 is -$0.1147, -12.93%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.5381%, -0.7327%, -1.0983%, -0.9164%, 0.8671%, -0.7967%, -0.7936%, -0.8037%, and -0.7222%. It's good to see the averages trend trying to improve.
All in, I'm leaning to sideways, at best, and likely some mild bearish movement for the near-term, using just these items.
Bill
In aggregate, the (un)conventional TA stuff leaves me feeling the up trend is over and a new trend will appear. Combined with my "three-day window" and watching the intra-day behavior weaken when the "bid walkers" are apparently absent , I'm left with a sideways at best and weakening most likely as my near-term expectations.
The day began with a typical open high ($0.77) and go higher ($0.7978/$0.80) in the early trade, through ~9:52, and then a rapid very low/no-volume drop back down to $0.7702 by 9:53. That was followed by very low/no-volume $0.7702/3-$0.7814 (briefly) with sagging highs through 10:37 when the highs hit $0.7750. Then through ~13:06 trade was mostly extremely low/no-volume $0.7702/39, with falling highs ending at $0.7703, and then through 15:53, prior to EOD volatility start, mostly extremely low/no-volume $0.7729/50. The EOD volatility dropped price ~1.7% to $0.76 and the day closed at $0.7601.
A difference from the usual manipulation scenarios is that the infrequent interspersed high-volume minutes did generally not move price in a big way, either up or down. A few of them did move buy percentage noticeably though.
This looked a lot like the beginning of a consolidation entry. It probably won't manifest right at this price range, but will have a small move up or down with low(er?) volume. A good part of this assessment is that today's volume was down ~29.5% on closing price down 6.49%. I expect my unconventional stuff will show a lower VWAP too, but with a magnitude of change quite a bit smaller. I'll guess, without peeking, about 3.5%.
AFAICT the "bid walkers" did not appear today. They were however replaced by "offer droppers", not an apparent organized effort, but rather it appeared like folks trying to exit as slowly, carefully and profitably as possible. Might even be careful shorters dripping into the market to realize as high a price as possible?
The short form of that is that it looked like real market activity, albeit controlled by the MMs in certain regards, wherein some buyers patiently awaited a fill at their pre-determined price and sellers reluctantly moved down to rid themselves of unwanted shares at the best price they thought they might realize.
How refreshing!
Unfortunately, it was not bullish in nature.
There was one pre-market trade of $0.77 x 500 at 9:16.
B/a at 9:15 was 100:500 $0.7502/$0.77, 9:29 100:536 $0.7502/$0.80.
Early action looked like the old "Open high and set an early higher", and as if the market was awaiting the appearance of the "bid walkers".
09:30-10:37 opened the day with a 5,131 sell for $0.77 and 12,250 more for $0.77. B/a right after open was 21K:788 $0.77/$0.80. Then came 9:32's b/a 21K:788 $0.77/$0.80, 9:41's 400 $0.77/$0.7841/$0.7701, 9:47's b/a 300:688 $0.7701/$0.80, 9:48's 4.4K $0.7964, 9:49's b/a 100:687 $0.7702/$0.80, 9:51's 1K $0.80, 9:52's b/a 200:3.5K $0.7702/$0.80, 9:52's 200 $0.7976/$0.80, 9:53's 200 $0.7702/3, 9:54's b/a 100:5.1K $0.7703/$0.80, 9:55's 1.5K $0.7715 (~1.4K)/02, 9:56's b/a 100:5.1K $0.7702/$0.80, 9:58's 1.1K $0.80/$0.7797 (500 ea.)/$0.7702, 9:59's 100 $0.7702, 9:59's b/a 100:4.7K $0.7702/$0.80, 10:02's 1.6K $0.7799/$0.78 (600), 10:03's 100 $0.7702, 10:06's b/a 300:400 $0.7702/$0.7814, 10:06's 1.1K $0.7732/03 (100), 10:07's b/a 200:300 $0.7703/$0.7814, 10:15's 100 $0.7814, 10:17's b/a 200:300 $0.7703/$0.7814, 10:19's 100 $0.7703, 10:20's 1.1K $0.7703/$0.78 (1K), 10:25's b/a 500:96 $0.7703/$0.7813 (offer backed by presented 200 $0.7814, 10:25's 100 $0.7703, 10:26's 600 $0.7771/04 (100), 10:28's 1K $0.7704, 10:31's 200 $0.7718, 10:32's 5K $0.78, 10:33's 100 $0.7751, 10:33's b/a 300:2.3K $0.7751/99, 10:36's 4.2K $0.7751/00/18/00, and the period ended on 10:37's 21.3K $0.7750/02 (13.3K).
10:38-12:34, after one no-trades minute, began verylow/no-volume $0.7702/39, with very slowly declining highs, on 10:39's 10K $0.7702. 10:46 saw volume switch to extremely low/no-volume. B/a at 10:47 was 1.1K:700 $0.7702/39, 10:49 1.1K:1.2K $0.7702/39, 11:02 705:500 $0.7702/39, 11:02 705:500 $0.7702/39, 11:17 105:600 $0.7702/37, 11:23 20.8K:1.5K $0.7700/37, 11:25 20.8K:2.3K $0.7700/36 (MMs rattling the offers $0.7736/7 (5K), not the bids), 11:32 20.8K:1K $0.7700/33 (MMs rattling offers again), 11:37 20.9K:100 $0.7700/32 (MMs rattling offers again), 11:38 20.7K:1.7K $0.7700/31.
Offers began dropping more rapidly here. B/a at 11:42 was 20.7K:1.5K $0.7700/23 (MMs still rattling offers), 11:55 18.1K:1.2K $0.7700/9, 11:57 18.1K:1K $0.7700/5, 12:02 16.1K:100 $0.7700/4, 12:07 15.6K:100 $0.7700/3, 12:17 11.1K:400 $0.7700/3, 12:34 10K:1K $0.7700/4. The period ended on 12:34's 100 $0.77.
The period end led to a "reset" of the offers to a higher level. The offers quickly began sagging again.
12:35-13:07 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7700/49, with the highs rapidly moving to $0.7729/30, after 12:35's 2.7K $0.7704/06/2540/50/00 (200). B/a at 12:41 was 10K:1.1K $0.7700/49 (was $0.7750 but I missed the post of it), 12:44 10K:700 $0.7700/29, 12:54 10K:700 $0.7700/29, 13:02 10K:700 $0.7700/29. The period ended on 13:07's 1,2K $0.7720/9.
Could this next b/a be the appearance of the "bid walkers? Rather late if so. It looks more like either supporting a bottom price (only because it never moved) or a real order as it started with an EDGX 20K size that got slowly nibbled away. Might be a real order, which I'm sure we all welcome.
13:08-15:52 began an extremely low/no-volume $0.7729/30 agonizingly slow rise on 13:13's 100 $0.7729. B/a at 13:15 was 20K:1.3K, $0.7729/30, 13:28 19.2K:1K $0.7729/30, 13:34 19.2K:300 $0.7729/30. 13:40 put range to $0.7729/40. B/a at 13:47 was 19.2K:1K $0.7729/35, 14:03 19.2K:100 $0.7729/33, 14:20 17K:200 $0.7729/30, 14:38 16.8K:100 $0.7729/32. 15:01 moved range to $0.7729/50. B/a at 15:02 was 16.7K:500 $0.7729/49 (offers being jiggled .49/.50), 15:15 16/7K:600 $0.7729/47. Volume was interrupted by 15:24's 8.4K $0.7750. B/a at 15:27 was 100:900 $0.7740/8, 15:32 100:1.1K $0.7740/8, 15:39 15.5K:900 $0.7729/50, 15:40 15.1K:800 $0.7729/49 (offers jiggled), 15:47 100:900 $0.7741/4. The period ended on 15:52's 600 $0.7729.
15:53-16:00 began a relatively high-volume EOD volatility on 15:53's 700 $0.7729/39 and then doing a ~1.7% sag lower on 15:54's 900 $0.7729/00 (100), 15:55's 6.4K $0.7700/1/ ... 17/28/50/33/50/33 ... 37/38/00, 15:56's 12.1K $0.7744/00/$0.7650, 15:57's 11.1K $0.7650/00/97, 15:58's 1.2K $7600/98/00/98/00, and ending the period and day on 15:59's 8.1K $0.7600/97/96/97/48/49/97/96/98, and 16:00's 3.9K $0.7601.
There was one AH 430 share sell for $0.72 at 18:04:32. This was 5.27% below the close. It came earlier and was of a size different from those I normally suspect of being manipulative in intent.
Including the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 10 larger trades (>=5K & 2 4K+) totaling 83,723, 35.94% of day's volume, with a $0.7719 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there were 9 larger trades totaling 79,623, 34.18% of day's volume, with a $0.7718 VWAP. The count seems normal but the percentage of day's volume is high. I think it's because we had a larger than normal number of "larger larger trades". The VWAPs are both below the day's $0.7725. Combined with the following low buy percentages, VWAP when most larger trades went off, and the trends of the buy percentages and VWAPs, I think most of the larger trades were selling into strength to retail buyers. This assessment could be supported by the daily short percentage (see below), which is above the normal range.
It's interesting how the last eight minutes, accounting for ~20% of day's volume and having the lowest VWAP, had the highest buy percentage subsequent to the opening period. Day traders? MMs? I'll never know, but my guess would be MMs covering their intra-day short sales to get market-neutral.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:37 63164 $0.7700 $0.8000 $49,026.69 $0.7762 27.12% 55.03% Incl 09:30 $0.7700 5,131 11,900
10:32 $0.7800 5,000 10:37 $0.7750 12,000
12:34 52670 $0.7700 $0.7739 $40,613.72 $0.7711 22.61% 41.75% Incl 10:39 $0.7702 10,000 10:45 $0.7739 4,100
12:14 $0.7700 4,100
13:07 10935 $0.7700 $0.7750 $8,437.49 $0.7716 4.69% 43.65%
15:52 59763 $0.7729 $0.7750 $46,225.59 $0.7735 25.66% 42.32% Incl 14:01 $0.7729 10,750
16:00 44442 $0.7600 $0.7750 $34,180.22 $0.7691 19.08% 49.49% Incl 15:56 $0.7700 10,742 15:57 $0.7697 10,000
18:04 430 $0.7200 $0.7200 $309.60 $0.7200 0.18% 49.40%
N.B. The low movement below results from the AH trade detailed above. If the official $0.76 low is used the movement would be 2.70%, a big difference.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
Things look pretty good until we look at the close and day's volume. These suggest that the trend is nearing an end and will likely begin to roll over and enter the consolidation I've been expecting. Note this Dead Cat Bounce has now completed three days and if my general "Three-day Window" for catalysts holds here the end of the trend should be appearing now.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 4.05% -2.70% 2.56% -1.29% -29.37%
Prior 3.54% 4.23% 0.39% 5.48% 25.64%
On my minimal chart, yesterday I said, in part, { ... Although today's end results cast doubt upon my assessment, the appearance of these folks strengths [sic] my belief in my assessment that we have manipulation to accomplish some short-term goal that will not be sustained. } The third day in this move higher is the first to close lower than it opened and initiated declining volume. We still got a higher open and high but accompanied by a lower low (higher if we use the official low) and close. This is one of the early signs of the possible beginning of a roll over. But don't do as I do so often and be too early - it's also an early sign that we might be "taking a breather" before continuing the trend or just entering a sideways consolidation.
Regarding a potential cross of the fast above the slow EMA, yesterday I said { This is still playing out with the fast EMA still rising and the gap between the fast and slow EMAs still narrowing. } Nothing changed yet and I still don't foresee a sustained cross. In fact, if my thinking about rolling over, or even entering a sideways consolidation, is right I don't think we'll get even a one-day cross.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits are still converging. It still looks like the limits are converging toward the center at roughly the same rate, keeping the mid-point about static. Our trading range today moved above that mid-point. I note also that it's wrapped around the descending slow EMA.
On my one-year chart all the SMAs continue to decline. If our price stays in this range the 10-day will continue declining 7 more days, the 20-day for 13 more days, the 50-day 42 days, and the 200 day essentially continuously (but visually guesstimating ~180 days) for now.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had improvement in RSI, accumulation/distribution, MFI (still oversold & still untrusted by me), momentum, Williams %R, full stochastic, and ADX-related.
The oscillators today had weakening in RSI, momentum, and accumulation/distribution. Those items are below neutral. Improvement was seen in MFI (untrusted by me), which exited oversold (barely), Williams %R (just above neutral), full stochastic (nearing overbought), and ADX-related (nearing a neutral stance).
Yesterday I noted { Combined with rising volume this all should result in continued upward movement. } Ignoring the AH trade and close, it was an up day, as indicated by the VWAP rising 0.93% (see below). Using the traditional metric, the close, it was a down day. Considering most oscillators were improved one could argue it was indeed an up day. But we know the traditional metric is the close, so down.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6913 and $0.8178 ($0.6776 and $0.8470 yesterday) are still converging at a roughly equal rate towards the mid-point, which is fairly static.
All in, the conventional TA indicators giving mixed oscillators, a lower close, reducing volume, Bollinger mid-point sort of static, apparent lack of the "bid walkers" today, and the behavior shown in the intra-day breakdown above all make me think the move up is over for now. What comes next, whether sideways or a move down, as we enter the expected (by me) consolidation is still not to be guessed at. I could be wrong and we might resume the upward movement, but combined with my "three-day window" thoughts I think that less likely.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions and the short percentage is above my desired range (needs re-check). The buy percentage (reminder: I use the 15:59 reading because I don't know the meaning of the MM closing trade) is in a range that allows price appreciation but doesn't support sustained appreciation.
In aggregate, I consider the short percentage to be the "tell" today - it's been on the rise since the big price drop and has now exceeded what I believe is the normal range. That's not good.
The spread is very wide (using the AH trade) and would suggest more upside if we had a rising-volume trend up going. We don't because volume is retreating and, using the conventional close, we are not in the up-trend now.
Using the "official" low, the spread would be only 5.26%, just a bit smaller than yesterday's. In my eyes this would be a continuation of a move suggesting a trend is running out of steam and, in my assessment, heading for consolidation or reversal, which can be part of a consolidation of course.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held steady at 14 negatives and 10 positives. Change since 11/30 is -$0.1147, -12.93%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.5381%, -0.7327%, -1.0983%, -0.9164%, 0.8671%, -0.7967%, -0.7936%, -0.8037%, and -0.7222%. It's good to see the averages trend trying to improve.
All in, I'm leaning to sideways, at best, and likely some mild bearish movement for the near-term, using just these items.
Bill
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