AI
Wednesday, January 04, 2017 9:01:49 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 01/03 2017 EOD
Near-term consolidation is my most optimistic near-term assessment.
I expect the suspicious late AH trade detailed and commented upon below will cause us to challenge $0.75 today. But since I believe we are seeing a Dead Cat Bounce I expect us to fail to break it.
In addition to the pre-market trades that set early high price, after the open and a quick sag to $0.71 by 9:36, the price immediately began pushing higher, hitting $0.753 by 11:25. This would fit right in with yesterday's wrap up of the conventional TA, where I said, in part, { ... we should start to enter short-term consolidation if the MMs and shorters doing covering buys do their parts. } The reason this fits in is that if MMs were doing their part they were getting short-term long (which may have been building since the prior day too) and the natural effect is for them to then force the market higher in the face of little resistance to increase profit as they sell into the artificially elevated prices. When price dropped as precipitously as it did over the prior few days it's often easy to artificially inflate price as there's always a cadre of folks around that see a sudden big price drop as a signal to buy in expectations of a recovery.
Fodder for the MMs and shorters I guess.
There were eleven pre-market trades for $0.75 (+10.28% from close): 4.9K, 100, 577, 100, 400, 1K, 3.5K, 5K, 1.5K, 2K 1.5K. Two more occurred at $0.72: 100, 800.
09:30-09:57 opened the day with a 6,899 sell for $0.7147 &$0.72 x 99. Then came 9:31's 100 $0.72, 9:34's 150 $0.7285, 9:35's b/a 5:22 $0.7141/$0.72 (backed by presented ~1.9K:1K $0.71/3), 9:35's 175 $0.7100, 9:38's 100 $0.7285, 9:40's 100 $0.7285, 9:42's 1K $0.7276 (900)/41, 9:44's 100 $0.7241, 9:45's 1.1K $0.7292/65 (1K), 9:46's 100 $0.7241, 9:49's 6/4K $0.7292/99/$0.7300, 9:50's 400 $0.7301/00/01, 9:52's b/a 4.5K:40 $0.7301/50 (offers backed by presented 100 $0.74), 9:54's 100 $0.74, 9:55's 100 $0.7301, and the period ended on 9:57's 5K $0.7309.
9:58-10:44 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7301/$0.7405 on 9:58's 800 $0.74/3 (600). B/a at 10:00 was 12K:40 $0.73/50 (offers backed by 100 $0.7405), 10:05 4.6K:40 $0.7301/50 (offers backed by 5.6K $0.74), 10:12 12.8K:400 $0.73/.$0.7405. Range became $0.7324/5 at 10:20. B/a at 10:27 was 300:2.7K $0.7324/5. At 10:33 range moved up to $0.7346/$0.74. B/a at 10:40 was 100:200 $0.7399/$0.7405, 10:47 100:300 $0.7301/$0.7420. The period ended on 10:44's 608 $0.739.
10:45-11:15 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7301/$0.7417 with falling highs and rising lows on 10:10:50's 100 $0.7420. B/a at 10:53 was 100:200 $0.7301/$0.7420, 11:02 100:200 $0.7301/$0.7420, 11:09 1.9K:8.1K $0.7401/20 (MMs rattling the bid $0.7400/1). Volume was interrupted by 11:12-:13's 20.2K $0.7401/2/1/2/$0.7420. The period ended on 11:15's 100 $0.7426.
11:16-11:28 began a mostly low/no-volume attempt to rise after 11:17's 3K $0.7460, but it was only semi-successful. B/a at 11:19 was 2.8K:1.5K $0.7461/$0.75 (MMs rattling the bids $0.7460/1). Volume was interrupted by 11:25's 10.2K $0.7501/30. The period ended on 11:28's 6.9K $0.739/$0.753.
11:29-15:21, after two no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $0.739/$0.7529 on 11:31's 100 $0.7529. B/a at 11:31 was 100:12.4K $0.7390/$0.7530, 11:46 100:300 $0.7390/$0.7510. Volume switched to extremely low/no-volume at 11:52. B/a at 12:06 was 100:100 $0.7400/$0.7517, 12:16 3.1K:200 $0.7401/$0.75. At 12:30 range narrowed to $0.7400/5. B/a at 12:31 was 2.2K:200 $0.7401/18, 12:47 1.9K:100 $0.7406/50, 13:02 1.9K:200 $0.7403/50. Volume was interrupted by 13:10's 8.8K $0.7408/$0.753. B/a at 13:19 was 1.9K 1K:400 $0.7402/59, 13:31 1.3K:200 $0.7402/50. Volume was interrupted by 13:32's 6.5K $0.745 and 13:42's 5K $0.7443. B/a at 13:48 was 1.1K:400 $0.7405/75, 2.9K:700 $0.7406/75, 14:16 3.1K:400 $0.7402/400 $0.7402/75, 14:33 500:300 $0.7402/85, 14:46 3.6K:500 $0.7401/70, 15:01 2.2K:800 $0.7401/70. Volume was interrupted by 15:04's 6.1K $0.7401/$0.747. B/a at at 15:17 was 300:200 $0.7401/50. The period ended on 15:21's 200 $0.7400/1.
15:22-15:59 began clawing higher, on extremely low/no-volume after a short extremely low/no-volume $0.7241/$0.7380, on 15:22's 16/7K $0.73//$0.7435/$0.7241/$0.73 (~15K $0.73 incl. 13K blk). B/a at 15:28 was 600:300 $0.7241/$0.7380, 15:33 600:200 $0.7241/$0.7380, 15:36 3.1K:300 $0.73/$0.7450. 15:43's200 hit $0.745, 15:50's 100 hit $0.7469, 15:54's b/a was 2.1K:800 $0.73/$0.7450, 15:57's b/a was 2.1K:800 $0.73/$0.7450. The period and day ended on 15:59's 1.2K $0.7301/00/ ... $0.73 and because there was no closing MM trade the official close was $0.73.
There were four AH trades: $0.73 x 25, $0.72 x 950, $0.745 x 100, and $0.777 x 100. The last one was at 19:19:59 and strikes me as one of the semi-typical MM manipulative trades designed to cause an early high the next day.
Including the opening trade (closing didn't qualify), there were 11 larger trades (>=5K) totaling 78,024, 29.74% of day's volume, with a $0.7393 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there were 10 larger trades totaling 71,125, 27.11% of day's volume, with a $0.7417 VWAP. The counts seem reasonable and the percentage of day's trade volume seems OK - maybe a bit at the high end of "normal", but not excessive.
As is common, we then observe the VWAP weaken followed relatively much later by the buy percentage as some folks realize the strength is ebbing. Notice almost four hours were required to get 1/3rd of the day's volume by 15:21 after VWAP had topped out and buy percentage had not yet topped. Even though buy percentage hadn't topped, VWAP had weakened.
The MMs played this market like a fine violin and they apparently have more music in mind. Note the high in the last period, set by the very late 100-share trade noted above.
N.B.The high was set by the suspicious late AH trade noted above. The official high of $0.7350 would give the high a movement of 2.68% instead of the 8.55% we see below.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
On my minimal chart, yesterday I commented, in part, { ... if so, there now exists less reason for strong selling ... but the entry into a near-term consolidation as MMs making the market during covering buys by the shorters does seem likely to occur. }. Today's behavior fits that scenario, especially if it really is a Dead Cat Bounce. The suspicious late AH trade noted above reinforces that for me because it indicates someone wants to raise the price so they can sell into the fooled market participants. Sans strong bullish market sentiment, which seems to have been the case for a very long while now, these sort of efforts often produce the desired short-term results but can't be sustained due to the lack of widespread market participation by now-jaded potential investors and traders. Any strength should be seen to fade quite quickly, likely even intra-day on the first day, just as it did today starting about 15:15.
The fast EMA stopped descending after four consecutive days and flipped up, narrowing the gap up to the slow EMA. If we really are just seeing a Dead Cat Bounce we won't get a sustained cross of the fast EMA above the slow EMA.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger upper limit is still descending and the lower limit flipped to rising, leaving the limits still converging. As the upper limit falls more quickly than the lower limit the mid-point is still descending.
On my one-year chart all the SMAs continue to decline. If our price stays in this range the 10-day will continue declining 180 more days, the 20-day for 17 more days, the 50-day 49 days, and the 200 day essentially continuously for now.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had weakening in RSI, accumulation/distribution, ADX-related, and momentum. MFI remained flat at its lower bound of 0. Strengthening was seen in Williams %R and full stochastic, with both still oversold. Everything was below neutral.
Today improvement occurred in RSI (got out of oversold, barely), MFI (untrusted by me) left it's lower bound and is now just oversold, momentum (but still below neutral), Williams %R (got above oversold, still below neutral), full stochastic (exited oversold, still below neutral), and ADX-related (but still not looking to move above a neutral configuration). Weakening occurred in accumulation/distribution.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6645 and $0.8774 ($0.6566 and $0.9142 yesterday) continue converging, with the lower limit now rising, and a falling mid-point due to the upper limit's more rapid decline.
Today the volume not only declined but was well below the 10-day average and barely above the 10-day averages prior to 12/27 and was below that day's 10-day average. That one metric casts substantial doubt on all the positives from the oscillator movements. If there was truly bullish sentiment in the market and a wide base, volume should have been much better than what we saw.
All in, in my mind the volume and intra-day behavior negate the positives in the oscillators, leaving me believing we will not get back above $0.75 and will enter a short-term consolidation pattern. Today was just the first step in that beginning.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, at least some normalcy, but the buy percentage is still too low to suggest near-term upside (but don't forget the suspicious AH trade) and the short percentage is still below my desired range (needs re-check). As mentioned above, I suspect MMs were short-term long and that may account for the low short percentage.That, if so, would also suggest th reason for the apparent strength today, at least until ~15:15, as the MMs got their selling done at the higher VWAPs.
Regardless, these two combined still do not present a bullish indication.
The spread was wide and produced by a suspicious late AH trade. Sans that trade the spread would be 3.52%. That latter metric was produced by an early low followed by a good rise and is in the range that I consider consistent with entry to consolidation. If the suspicious higher spread had been produced in normal hours with some volume the suggestion would be bullish, especially if already in an up trend. As it is, that's totally bogus.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings improved to 15 negatives and 9 positives, after having held steady for nine days at 16 and 8 respectively. Change since 11/28 is -$0.1507, -16.91%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.7327%, -1.0983%, -0.9164%, 0.8671%, -0.7967%, -0.7936%, -0.8037%, -0.7222%, -0.7346%, and -0.6354%. even if I don't believe the apparent turn from the down trend, it's still nive to see the decline in the rolling 24-day average reverse. Likely only a couple days though.
All in, my unconventional stuff is presenting a much less positive scenario than the conventional TA. The one positive here, percentages for shorts and buys moving in the same direction, is not enough to overcome the consolidation suggested by the spread and volume.
Bill
Near-term consolidation is my most optimistic near-term assessment.
I expect the suspicious late AH trade detailed and commented upon below will cause us to challenge $0.75 today. But since I believe we are seeing a Dead Cat Bounce I expect us to fail to break it.
In addition to the pre-market trades that set early high price, after the open and a quick sag to $0.71 by 9:36, the price immediately began pushing higher, hitting $0.753 by 11:25. This would fit right in with yesterday's wrap up of the conventional TA, where I said, in part, { ... we should start to enter short-term consolidation if the MMs and shorters doing covering buys do their parts. } The reason this fits in is that if MMs were doing their part they were getting short-term long (which may have been building since the prior day too) and the natural effect is for them to then force the market higher in the face of little resistance to increase profit as they sell into the artificially elevated prices. When price dropped as precipitously as it did over the prior few days it's often easy to artificially inflate price as there's always a cadre of folks around that see a sudden big price drop as a signal to buy in expectations of a recovery.
Fodder for the MMs and shorters I guess.
There were eleven pre-market trades for $0.75 (+10.28% from close): 4.9K, 100, 577, 100, 400, 1K, 3.5K, 5K, 1.5K, 2K 1.5K. Two more occurred at $0.72: 100, 800.
09:30-09:57 opened the day with a 6,899 sell for $0.7147 &$0.72 x 99. Then came 9:31's 100 $0.72, 9:34's 150 $0.7285, 9:35's b/a 5:22 $0.7141/$0.72 (backed by presented ~1.9K:1K $0.71/3), 9:35's 175 $0.7100, 9:38's 100 $0.7285, 9:40's 100 $0.7285, 9:42's 1K $0.7276 (900)/41, 9:44's 100 $0.7241, 9:45's 1.1K $0.7292/65 (1K), 9:46's 100 $0.7241, 9:49's 6/4K $0.7292/99/$0.7300, 9:50's 400 $0.7301/00/01, 9:52's b/a 4.5K:40 $0.7301/50 (offers backed by presented 100 $0.74), 9:54's 100 $0.74, 9:55's 100 $0.7301, and the period ended on 9:57's 5K $0.7309.
9:58-10:44 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7301/$0.7405 on 9:58's 800 $0.74/3 (600). B/a at 10:00 was 12K:40 $0.73/50 (offers backed by 100 $0.7405), 10:05 4.6K:40 $0.7301/50 (offers backed by 5.6K $0.74), 10:12 12.8K:400 $0.73/.$0.7405. Range became $0.7324/5 at 10:20. B/a at 10:27 was 300:2.7K $0.7324/5. At 10:33 range moved up to $0.7346/$0.74. B/a at 10:40 was 100:200 $0.7399/$0.7405, 10:47 100:300 $0.7301/$0.7420. The period ended on 10:44's 608 $0.739.
10:45-11:15 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7301/$0.7417 with falling highs and rising lows on 10:10:50's 100 $0.7420. B/a at 10:53 was 100:200 $0.7301/$0.7420, 11:02 100:200 $0.7301/$0.7420, 11:09 1.9K:8.1K $0.7401/20 (MMs rattling the bid $0.7400/1). Volume was interrupted by 11:12-:13's 20.2K $0.7401/2/1/2/$0.7420. The period ended on 11:15's 100 $0.7426.
11:16-11:28 began a mostly low/no-volume attempt to rise after 11:17's 3K $0.7460, but it was only semi-successful. B/a at 11:19 was 2.8K:1.5K $0.7461/$0.75 (MMs rattling the bids $0.7460/1). Volume was interrupted by 11:25's 10.2K $0.7501/30. The period ended on 11:28's 6.9K $0.739/$0.753.
11:29-15:21, after two no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $0.739/$0.7529 on 11:31's 100 $0.7529. B/a at 11:31 was 100:12.4K $0.7390/$0.7530, 11:46 100:300 $0.7390/$0.7510. Volume switched to extremely low/no-volume at 11:52. B/a at 12:06 was 100:100 $0.7400/$0.7517, 12:16 3.1K:200 $0.7401/$0.75. At 12:30 range narrowed to $0.7400/5. B/a at 12:31 was 2.2K:200 $0.7401/18, 12:47 1.9K:100 $0.7406/50, 13:02 1.9K:200 $0.7403/50. Volume was interrupted by 13:10's 8.8K $0.7408/$0.753. B/a at 13:19 was 1.9K 1K:400 $0.7402/59, 13:31 1.3K:200 $0.7402/50. Volume was interrupted by 13:32's 6.5K $0.745 and 13:42's 5K $0.7443. B/a at 13:48 was 1.1K:400 $0.7405/75, 2.9K:700 $0.7406/75, 14:16 3.1K:400 $0.7402/400 $0.7402/75, 14:33 500:300 $0.7402/85, 14:46 3.6K:500 $0.7401/70, 15:01 2.2K:800 $0.7401/70. Volume was interrupted by 15:04's 6.1K $0.7401/$0.747. B/a at at 15:17 was 300:200 $0.7401/50. The period ended on 15:21's 200 $0.7400/1.
15:22-15:59 began clawing higher, on extremely low/no-volume after a short extremely low/no-volume $0.7241/$0.7380, on 15:22's 16/7K $0.73//$0.7435/$0.7241/$0.73 (~15K $0.73 incl. 13K blk). B/a at 15:28 was 600:300 $0.7241/$0.7380, 15:33 600:200 $0.7241/$0.7380, 15:36 3.1K:300 $0.73/$0.7450. 15:43's200 hit $0.745, 15:50's 100 hit $0.7469, 15:54's b/a was 2.1K:800 $0.73/$0.7450, 15:57's b/a was 2.1K:800 $0.73/$0.7450. The period and day ended on 15:59's 1.2K $0.7301/00/ ... $0.73 and because there was no closing MM trade the official close was $0.73.
There were four AH trades: $0.73 x 25, $0.72 x 950, $0.745 x 100, and $0.777 x 100. The last one was at 19:19:59 and strikes me as one of the semi-typical MM manipulative trades designed to cause an early high the next day.
Including the opening trade (closing didn't qualify), there were 11 larger trades (>=5K) totaling 78,024, 29.74% of day's volume, with a $0.7393 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there were 10 larger trades totaling 71,125, 27.11% of day's volume, with a $0.7417 VWAP. The counts seem reasonable and the percentage of day's trade volume seems OK - maybe a bit at the high end of "normal", but not excessive.
Looking at the prior two day's intr-day behavior, today doesn't surprise. The prior two days both had big moves lower that certainly must have presented lucrative covering buy prices for both the shorters and MMs, whom I believe ended up short-term long, and the natural effect as the MMs make more money is to see price held up early, as was seen today. Notice where the VWAP and buy percentages made a turn after 11:15. 11:25 set the day's high and 22% of day's volume occurred 10:45-11:28, where we also saw the highest VWAP.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:06 20477 $0.7200 $0.7500 $15,330.75 $0.7487 7.80% 0.00% Incl 08:00 0.7500 4900 08:38 0.7500 5000
09:57 22424 $0.7100 $0.7400 $16,252.93 $0.7248 8.54% 11.65% Incl 09:30 0.7147 6899 09:57 0.7309 5000
10:44 37052 $0.7300 $0.7405 $27,326.37 $0.7375 14.12% 35.20% Incl 10:16 0.7400 10000
11:15 29080 $0.7301 $0.7426 $21,516.56 $0.7399 11.08% 36.78% Incl 11:12 0.7401 5500 11:13 0.7420 7000
11:28 26825 $0.7390 $0.7530 $20,105.97 $0.7495 10.22% 35.03% Incl 11:25 0.7501 10000 11:28 0.7500 5800
15:21 92225 $0.7390 $0.7530 $68,668.01 $0.7446 35.14% 46.00% Incl 13:42 0.7443 5000
15:59 30539 $0.7241 $0.7469 $22,322.07 $0.7309 11.63% 42.24% Incl 15:22 0.7300 12925
19:19 1150 $0.7200 $0.7770 $836.20 $0.7271 0.44% 42.13%
As is common, we then observe the VWAP weaken followed relatively much later by the buy percentage as some folks realize the strength is ebbing. Notice almost four hours were required to get 1/3rd of the day's volume by 15:21 after VWAP had topped out and buy percentage had not yet topped. Even though buy percentage hadn't topped, VWAP had weakened.
The MMs played this market like a fine violin and they apparently have more music in mind. Note the high in the last period, set by the very late 100-share trade noted above.
N.B.The high was set by the suspicious late AH trade noted above. The official high of $0.7350 would give the high a movement of 2.68% instead of the 8.55% we see below.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
The volume suggests no strength. All this leads me to think that what we got was just a Dead Cat Bounce. Do note that the official high couldn't even challenge the $0.75 former potential support, which is now resistance. With that suspicious AH trade in place I expect we will challenge it tomorrow and fail to close at or above it.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 0.52% 7.58% 8.55% 7.34% -77.79%
Prior -5.20% -7.04% -5.25% -5.08% 146.55%
On my minimal chart, yesterday I commented, in part, { ... if so, there now exists less reason for strong selling ... but the entry into a near-term consolidation as MMs making the market during covering buys by the shorters does seem likely to occur. }. Today's behavior fits that scenario, especially if it really is a Dead Cat Bounce. The suspicious late AH trade noted above reinforces that for me because it indicates someone wants to raise the price so they can sell into the fooled market participants. Sans strong bullish market sentiment, which seems to have been the case for a very long while now, these sort of efforts often produce the desired short-term results but can't be sustained due to the lack of widespread market participation by now-jaded potential investors and traders. Any strength should be seen to fade quite quickly, likely even intra-day on the first day, just as it did today starting about 15:15.
The fast EMA stopped descending after four consecutive days and flipped up, narrowing the gap up to the slow EMA. If we really are just seeing a Dead Cat Bounce we won't get a sustained cross of the fast EMA above the slow EMA.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger upper limit is still descending and the lower limit flipped to rising, leaving the limits still converging. As the upper limit falls more quickly than the lower limit the mid-point is still descending.
On my one-year chart all the SMAs continue to decline. If our price stays in this range the 10-day will continue declining 180 more days, the 20-day for 17 more days, the 50-day 49 days, and the 200 day essentially continuously for now.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had weakening in RSI, accumulation/distribution, ADX-related, and momentum. MFI remained flat at its lower bound of 0. Strengthening was seen in Williams %R and full stochastic, with both still oversold. Everything was below neutral.
Today improvement occurred in RSI (got out of oversold, barely), MFI (untrusted by me) left it's lower bound and is now just oversold, momentum (but still below neutral), Williams %R (got above oversold, still below neutral), full stochastic (exited oversold, still below neutral), and ADX-related (but still not looking to move above a neutral configuration). Weakening occurred in accumulation/distribution.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6645 and $0.8774 ($0.6566 and $0.9142 yesterday) continue converging, with the lower limit now rising, and a falling mid-point due to the upper limit's more rapid decline.
Today the volume not only declined but was well below the 10-day average and barely above the 10-day averages prior to 12/27 and was below that day's 10-day average. That one metric casts substantial doubt on all the positives from the oscillator movements. If there was truly bullish sentiment in the market and a wide base, volume should have been much better than what we saw.
All in, in my mind the volume and intra-day behavior negate the positives in the oscillators, leaving me believing we will not get back above $0.75 and will enter a short-term consolidation pattern. Today was just the first step in that beginning.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, at least some normalcy, but the buy percentage is still too low to suggest near-term upside (but don't forget the suspicious AH trade) and the short percentage is still below my desired range (needs re-check). As mentioned above, I suspect MMs were short-term long and that may account for the low short percentage.That, if so, would also suggest th reason for the apparent strength today, at least until ~15:15, as the MMs got their selling done at the higher VWAPs.
Regardless, these two combined still do not present a bullish indication.
The spread was wide and produced by a suspicious late AH trade. Sans that trade the spread would be 3.52%. That latter metric was produced by an early low followed by a good rise and is in the range that I consider consistent with entry to consolidation. If the suspicious higher spread had been produced in normal hours with some volume the suggestion would be bullish, especially if already in an up trend. As it is, that's totally bogus.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings improved to 15 negatives and 9 positives, after having held steady for nine days at 16 and 8 respectively. Change since 11/28 is -$0.1507, -16.91%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.7327%, -1.0983%, -0.9164%, 0.8671%, -0.7967%, -0.7936%, -0.8037%, -0.7222%, -0.7346%, and -0.6354%. even if I don't believe the apparent turn from the down trend, it's still nive to see the decline in the rolling 24-day average reverse. Likely only a couple days though.
All in, my unconventional stuff is presenting a much less positive scenario than the conventional TA. The one positive here, percentages for shorts and buys moving in the same direction, is not enough to overcome the consolidation suggested by the spread and volume.
Bill
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