ARMOUR Residential REIT Inc (ARR)

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mREITs are really hard to understand with all the leverage and forces that affect them. We all know how successful the smartest economists have been in predicting interest rates. How can anyone also predict the yield curve, credit quality, governmental action, market fads and prepayment trends?

There are some brainy analysts on SA who specialize in mREITs and spew out brilliant sounding articles. But in the end their success seems pretty random to me. Same thing with other "alphabet stocks" (BDCs, REITs).

I've gotten interested in BDCs lately and they may be even more inscrutable, although without the high leverage.

Two certainties about these: Given a high enough yield, IHUBers will flock. And one can expect meltdowns in each category every decade or two. I too thought about buying ARR three years ago... and came to my senses!