Capstone Green Energy Corp (fka CGRNQ)

[Wild-bill]

Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 12/28 2016 EOD

Everything but some mixed oscillators makes me think more near-term weakness is the order of the day.

Today opened at $0.75, dropped to $0.7401 by 10:36, popped to $0.7645 at 10:43 and came right back down the same minute to $0.74. But it wasn't all bad as it didn't go any lower until 15:54 began a little EOD volatility after a very long flattish mostly very low-volume $0.740x (and a couple $0.7410 minutes early on), interrupted by some occasional one-minute volume spikes. That EOD volatility did get price as low as $0.7360, the day's low, at 15:57.

Hm, no west coasties, apparently, today.

There were no pre-market trades.

09:30-10:00 opened the day with a 7,114 sell for $0.75 & $0.7505 x 200, $0.7504 x 100, $0.7500 x 1709. Then came 9:34's 1.9K $0.7503/4/3/0, 9:36's 9.3K $0.75/$0.7401 (100), 9:38's b/a 1.1K:1.3K $0.7410/$0.77, 9:39's 10K $0.7440/22/11/1012/10, 9:40's 900 $0.7550/$0.7401, 9:41's 2.7K $0.7400/1, 9:42's 6.7K $0.7430/01, 9:43's 3.3K $0.7400/1/$0.7645/$0.7550, 9:44's 800 $0.74, 9:45's 130 $0.7475, 9:46's 2.9K $0.75 (2.5K)/$0.74, 9:49's b/a 200:10.8K $0.7402/$0.75, 9:49's 4.7K $0.7414/02/01, 9:50's 100 $0.7401, 9:53's b/a 150:500 $0.7401/48, 9:54's 7.2K $0.7425/48/35/28/01, 9:57's 5.8K $0.7400/1 (150)/0, 9:58's 6.3K $0.7437 (500)/20/00, 9:59's 200 $0.7400/12, and the period ended on 10:00's 100 $0.7435

10:01-12:39 had 10:03's b/a 2.5K:1K $0.7400/30, 10:06's 2.5K:100 $0.74/00/26. After nine no-trades minutes, mostly low/medium-volume $0.7400/1 began after 10:09's 300 $0.74, 10:10's 6K $0.7400/18/00, 10:11's 7.9K $0.7400/15/00, and 10:12's ~8.8K $0.7400/1/0. B/a at 10:11 was 2.7K:700 $0.7400/15, 10:15 2.7K:1.1K $0.7400/1. Volume was interrupted by 10:19's 11.5K $0.7401 (300)/00. B/a at 10:22 was 2.6K:300 $0.7400/1. Range moved to $0.7405/10, with falling highs, at 10:27. B/a at 10:32 was 1.1K:100 $0.7405/7. Volume was again interrupted by 10:35's 10.4K $0.7406, after which volume became extremely low/no-volume. B/a at 10:40 was 1.1K:900 $0.7405/6, 10:47 1.1K:1.1K $0.7405/6. Volume was interrupted by 11:01's 11.7K $0.7405/6 (200). B/a at 11:03 was 1.3K:2K $0.7405/6, 11:25 900:1.9K $0.7405/6, 11:35 1.1K:1K $0.7405/6, 11:48 900:1.8K $0.7405/6, 12:32 900:1.9K $0.7405/6. The period ended on 12:39's 450 $0.7405.

12:40-15:53 began extremely low/no-volume $0.7400/3 on 12:40's ~14.2K $0.7406/05/00. B/a at 12:49 was 2.6K:700 $0.7400/2, 13:08 2.6K:1.5K $0.7400/1. Volume was interrupted by 13:10's 31.1K $0.7400/1 (incl 11K $0.7401 blk trade). B/a at 13:20 was 2.3K:900 $0.7400/1, 13:32 2.5K:1.6K $0.7400/1. Volume was interrupted by 13:45's 35.2K $0.7400/2. B/a at 13:47 was 2.4K:1.1K $0.7400/2, 14:36 4.5K:1.7K $0.7400/1, 14:47 2.2K:2.1K $0.7400/1, 15:02 2.3K:1.4K $0.7400/1, 15:17 1.8K:1.7K $0.7400/1, 15:20 2.1K:1.3K $0.7400/1, 15:33 2.1K:1.4K $0.7400/1. The period ended on 15:53's 1.7K $0.7401/00.

15:54-15:59 began a mostly low/medium-volume sag on 15:54's 7.5K $0.7401/0/$0.7399/$0.7401/0/$0.7390/$0.7400, did 15:55-:56's xx.xK $0.7400/$0.7390/$0.7400/$0.7399, 15:57's xx.xK $0.7390/94/85/94/80/94/85/80/99/64/60/99/60/63, 15:58's xx.xK $0.7399/80/99/80/83/99/80/83/81/80, and ended the period and day on 15:59's 11.3K $0.7380/89/80/90/99/90/99/90/84/85/80/83/80/85/90/$0.74/$0.7390/83/$0.74/$0.739 (odd-lot 89 shares) and there was no MM closing trade. So the last non-odd-lot 15:59 trade, $0.74, is the official closing price.

There were no AH trades.

Including the opening trade (closing didn't qualify), there were 18 larger trades (>=5K) totaling 104,646, 24.28% of day's volume, with a $0.7417 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there were 17 larger trades totaling 100,417, 23.30% of day's volume, with a $0.7413 VWAP. For the trade volume, the counts and percentages are right in the range I consider normal.

 Ending  Period  Period  Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End 
 Period  Volume     Low    High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~% 
  10:00   67467 $0.7400 $0.7645    $50,199.22 $0.7441 15.66% 15.44% Incl 09:30 $0.7500 7,114 09:36 4,229 
                                                                         09:39 $0.7422 8,000 09:42 $0.7430 6,000 
                                                                         09:49 $0.7414 4,000 09:58 $0.7400 4,887 
  12:39  139830 $0.7400 $0.7418   $103,538.85 $0.7405 32.45% 21.61% Incl 10:11 $0.7415 4,500 10:12 $0.7401 6,756 
                                                                         10:19 $0.7400 9,900 11:01 $0.7405 6,600 
                                                                         11:09 $0.7405 5,000 11:29 $0.7406 4,125 
                                                                         11:36 $0.7405 4,750 12:08 4,400 
                                                                         13:10 $0.7401 11,000 13:45 4,885 
                                                                         13:58 $0.7401 4,000 
  15:53  188252 $0.7400 $0.7406   $139,315.65 $0.7400 43.68% 26.17% 
  15:59   29274 $0.7360 $0.7401    $21,635.82 $0.7391  6.79% 27.60% Incl 15:54 $0.7400 4,500

Can you say flat? Anemic? Boring? If so you can adequately summarize the intra-day trading behavior today. Those adjectives apply to the movements in the VWAP during the periods, the buy percentages and, generally, the majority of volume per minute during the day. Most of the volume, as is relatively common, came on one or two-minute volume spikes. This is likely an effect of how the MMs operate to accumulate/distribute shares for their "good customers" and once the quantity/price is satisfied the customer order is filled. Add in a few intra-broker larger trades and you get an idea of just how anemic the general trading volume was most of the day.

On the traditional TA front, movements were:

          __Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_ 
 Today     -1.32%  -1.87%  -1.48%  -1.37%  -1.43% 
 Prior     -0.65%   0.00%  -0.51%  -3.31% 187.47%

Well, I guess today's readings confirm what yesterday told us - the trend has returned. It also confirms that the previously untested $0.75 support was not strong. Wait. That may be premature. A close below that tomorrow is needed to confirm a breakthrough. With today's volume being essentially flat with yesterday's rising volume I think we have no indication of waning of strength in the move lower. That's scary to think about.

On my minimal chart much of yesterday's stuff still holds. We had a lower high, but for the sixth consecutive day now. My discussion of the potential $0.75 support included { ... but I question how long it can hold on rising volume. If volume doesn't start to taper off it looks unlikely. We need to keep in mind this support price was previously untested. } Today's volume reduced only marginally, being effectively flat, and today's drop confirmed that concern was valid.

But all is not lost - we need a second close below to confirm a breakdown. The west coasties seemed to have been absent today and the support they normally provided was missing. If they come back tomorrow maybe we won't confirm the breakdown.

The fast EMA, which two days ago had stopped its descent, yesterday resumed descending and continued that today. The gap up to the slow EMA is still large.

The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits look to be reducing the rate of divergence and are, visually, near parallel in moving lower.

On my one-year chart all the SMAs continue to decline.

Yesterday the oscillators I watch had weakening in RSI (deeper in oversold), Williams %R (deeper in oversold at -99.86), and ADX-related. MFI (untrusted by me) remained at zero (2nd consecutive day). Marginal improvement occurred in momentum and full stochastic (still deep in oversold).

Today we saw weakening in RSI, accumulation/distribution, and ADX-related. Marginal improvement occurred in momentum, Williams %R, and full stochastic. MFI (untrusted by me) was flat as it remained at it's lower bound of 0.

The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.6754 and $0.9716 ($0.6902 and $0.9829 yesterday), are both declining and almost parallel, giving a falling mid-point.

All in, the conventional TA oscillators mixed signals would suggest we might be near a bottom. The trade volume being almost flat on another down day though would argue against that, as would my observations of the intra-day behavior and the results seen in the intra-day breakdown. So I remain near-term bearish based on this stuff.



Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions and, even worse, buy percentage sunk even further below what's needed for a sustained price level, much less and kind of appreciation. The short percentage, if we weren't in a down trend and seeing the buy percentages where they are, wouldn't be too bad, being just inside the low end of my desired range (needs re-check).

The spread widened a bit and remains like yesterday's: { ... narrowed again but is still a bit too wide to be suggesting a bottom when we are in a down trend. }

The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held steady for the seventh day at 16 negatives and 8 positives. Change since 11/22 is -$0.1760, -19.20%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now 0.8671%, -0.7967%, -0.7936%, -0.8037%, -0.7222%, -0.7346%, -0.6354%, -0.0814%, -0.0607%, and 0.3441%.

All in, I think these are telling us more near-term weakness is most likely.

Bill