AI
Tuesday, December 27, 2016 8:31:56 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 12/23 2016 EOD
Conventional TA stuff is mixed with longer-term indicators such as the SMAs still weakening, in the "proper" order too, while shorter-term oscillators have gone mixed with the most important ones showing some improvement, although all are still very weak. My read on the intra-day action doesn't suggest apparent strength though (see intra-day breakdown below) and I am negative for now while I await development of whatever the next trend is. I don't think there's enough contrarians and/or $CPST bulls out in the market to drive any substantial price increases and everybody is likely wise to $CPST normal behavior now and won't be fooled by PRs and will be aware that conditions suggest another round of capital raise is likely somewhere down the road. At anywhere near these price levels the next deal would be an even worse deal than this last one.
We touched my anticipated $0.75 quite solidly today by 9:58. At 10:11 a halting slow recovery began that got up to $0.76 at 10:31, made an almost 2 penny rise to $0.78 at 11:58 - nothing strange about that now, is there? Anyway, at 12:10 a rapid drop began that got trade range to $0.765/$0.77 by 12:11. The common following flattish period ended about 13:01 and range dropped to $0.7565/$0.762x through about 13:38. The next flattish $0.764x/$0.769 period ended at 15:08/ From then to the close we just did a wider-spread $0.7609/90 into the close at $0.7760, courtesy of the MMM (Market-Maker Magic).
The watch now becomes whether that $0.75 will offer support or cave, as have so many prior support points over time.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-09:55 opened the day with a 1,745 sell for $0.7650 & $0.7650 x 700, $0.7675 x 880. Then came 9:32's b/a 378:1.8K $0.7650/74, 9:32's 750 $0.7855, 9:33's b/a 300:1.8K $0.7651/74, 9:37's 200 $0.7658, 9:38's b/a 200:700 $0.7651/70, 9:40's 300 $0.7670, 9:42-:43's 1.1K $0.7651, 9:44's b/a 400:1K $0.7651/73, 9:45's 574 $0.7651, 9:48's b/a 100:200 $0.7660/72, 9:49's b/a 100:500 $0.7660/69, 9:51's b/a 45:900 $0.7660/64 (bid backed by presented 1.8K $0.7650), 9:53's 100 $0.7663, 9:54's ~1.1K $0.7674/51. The period ended on 9:55's 2.4K $0.7650/1.
9:56-10:27 did a rapid drop on 9:56's 978 $0.76, 9:57's 22.9K $0.7601/0/$0.7550/$0.76, and 9:58's 600 $0.75. Trade was very low/no-volume at $0.75 through 10:04. 10:05's 1.1K $0.7500/1 began an attempt to recover some of the loss. B/a at 10:08 was 50K:200 $0.7500/21. 10:11's 829 hit $0.7516, 10:13's 2.5K hit $0.7512/$0.7520, 10:18's 800 hit $0.7576. The period ended on 10:27's 200 $0.7522.
10:28-11:50, after three no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.7528/$0.76 on 10:31's 2.2K bump up: $0.7522/21/$0.76. B/a at 10:31 was 400:1.1K $0.7522/99, 10:39 1.2K:179 $0.7529/31, 10:46 1.3K:200 $0.7544/$0.76. Then began low/medium-volume $0.7545/$0.76. B/a at 10:50 was 1.1K:200 $0.7565/$0.76 (MMs jiggling the bids up/down a lot) and some stability, on extremely low/no-volume, at $0.7527/67 appeared. B/a at 10:52 was 1.2K:200 $0.7558/67, 11:02 2.4K:300 $0.7527/67 (MMs jiggling the bids up/down a lot). Range then went $0.7531/74. B/a at 11:19 was 1.2K:300 $0.7529/67. Volume was interrupted by 11:24's 10.1K $0.7531/74. Range became $0.7533/74. B/a at 11:29 was 1.9K:200 $0.7533/74. Range went $0.7530/$0.76 at 11:42. B/a at was 11:47 3.7K:1.5K $0.7530/$0.76. The period ended on 11:50's5.1K $0.76.
11:51-12:57, after one no-trades minute, began a very low/no-volume $0.7706/$0.78 after doing 11:52's 100 $0.7607 and hitting 11:58's 100 $0.78. B/a at 12:00 was 2.3K:1.9K $0.7703/$0.78. Range got lowered to $0.7655/$0.77 when 12:10's 8K did $0.7748/08/07/08/06/00. B/a at 12:19 was 5.8K:3.8K $0.7655/$0.77, 12:32 100:3.8K $0.7655/$0.77, 12:47 5.6K:3.4K $0.7655/$0.77. The period ended on 12:57's 9.4K $0.7655.
12:58-13:37, after six no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.7565/$0.7626 on 13:04's 1K $0.7629. B/a at 13:02 was 800:600 $0.7565/$0.7631, 13:17 900:300 $0.7566/$0.7626, 13:33 700:100 $0.7603/25 (MMs jiggling bids up/down), 13:47 1.2K:5K $0.7628/90. The period ended on 13:37's 100 $0.7628.
13:38-14:41, after one no-trades minute, began extremely low/no-volume $0.7646/90 on 13:39's 100 $0.769. Lows began creeping up at 13:58. B/a at 14:02 was 400:4.7K $0.7654/90, 14:16 200:200 $0.7653/76. Highs dropped at 14:17 to $0.7667. B/a at 14:31 was 29:100 $0.7651/81 (bid backed by presented 1K $0.7650). The period ended on 14:41's100 $0.7668.
14:42-15:08, after one no-trades minute, began extremely low/no-volume $0.7674/5 after 14:43's 9.8K $0.7625/00/65/40/ ... 46/40/25/46/25/20/78/62/78. B/a at 14:47 was 2.2K:400 $0.7600/76, 15:02 300:100 $0.7601/74. The period ended on 15:08's 100 $0.7681 and 15:08's 1.7K $0.7681/5.
15:09-16:00 began an extremely low/no-volume, wide-range $0.7604/$0.7690 (with lows sagging to $0.7601/00) on 15:09's 300 $0.7627. B/a at 15:20 was 200:4.9K $0.7601/90, 15:32 200:4.6K $0.7609/90, 15:47 300:4.9K $0.7601/90. The period and day ended on 15:59 950 $0.7622/00/90/30 and 16:00's 815 $0.7760 buy.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening trade, there were 5 larger trades totaling 34,917, 22.96% of day's volume, with a $0.7575 VWAP. Considering the trade volume is less than half the 10-day average I guess the count is reasonable. The percentage of trade volume is right in the normal range. A small change from recent - the VWAP is below the day's $0.7602. Looking at where they are clustered and the buy percentages it makes sense. My guess is a good part of these were taken by the MMs and sold into the market later, explaining why price was again sort of pushed up during the day, just as has been seen so many days recently.
N.B. Note in the following that the improvement in the low is because I use the low of $0.74 seen AH yesterday and today's low was $0.75. If I used the "official" low of $0.76 yesterday the movement would be -1.32%.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
On my minimal chart we again had a lower high (marginally and the fourth consecutive day), the low broke the three-day $0.76 (ignoring yesterday's AH $0.74) and went on to touch my anticipated $0.75, and the close was higher. The higher close, meaning "an up day", was on higher volume, suggesting some strength to the upside. But that's just the usual "flack", I think, put up to hide what's really going on. Look at the intra-day breakdown above and note what and when the various highs, lows, VWAPs and buy percentages were and where the strongest volume came in.
IMO the close was just the normal MM set up to attempt to suck more money out of the hapless market participants, if any are left, and/or other MMs. Their bots do battle you know.
The fast EMA finally stopped it descent, but still is well below the falling slow EMA, and actually moved up 1/10ths of a penny thanks to the higher close today ($0.7676->$0.776). The gap up to the slow EMA is still huge though - $0.7740 vs. $0.8345.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits continue diverging ever faster as the lower limit is still quite near vertical while the upper limit is just now starting to form a parabolic drop. That one will collapse quite rapidly if we stay in our current range. Look for a very low mid-point to arise before we see any relief appear I think.
The important thing about the low is that it touched anticipated support, did not penetrate it, and after first being encountered at 9:59 resulted in an initial small rise to do a flattish $0.752x/$0.76 through ~11:55 before doing the almost-no-volume shoot up to the $0.78 day's high at 11:58. So there was some modicum of support at that level but the extremely or very low volume for the rest of the day does not reinforce that thought of support. I'm guessing it was more likely just some shorts being covered, either by MMs, day traders or shorters.
On my one-year chart all the SMAs continue to decline.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had all but momentum and MFI (untrusted by me) weakened more. Those two exceptions improved slightly. Everything that has an oversold line was very deeply into that area. Williams % R was -108.9987 and full stochastic was -3.1029.
Today improvement occurred in RSI (barely above oversold), momentum (still below neutral), Williams %R (still oversold but up to -0.88xx), and full stochastic (still oversold at 8). MFI (untrusted by me) weakened and is in oversold at 0. ADX-related is flat.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.7031 and $1.0007 ($0.7069 and $1.0193 yesterday), are falling but switched to converging as the upper limit falls more rapidly. The question, of course, is will price move towards the mid-point, today roughly $0.85, or will the mid-point move toward where price is currently. Being we just hit the $0.75 untested potential support I not yet willing to guess which scenario is more likely.
All in, seeing some oscillator improvement would suggest a more positive outlook than I've had recently. But I'm not going to be swayed by that yet because this was our first drop to the previously untested potential support and we had rising volume in the price range that was low (see intra-day breakdown above) - 57%+ was in the $0.75xx VWAP area the first couple hours of the day with ~35% subsequently in the $0.76xx VWAP range for the last ~2/3rds of the day. I'm suspecting that MMs bought in the low part of the day and sold later and so aren't left in a short-term long position. If the MMs are in a market-neutral position they will have no reason to hold price higher, but will follow whatever market sentiment is to make their money.
There is a possibility, I guess, that some folks in the market are still believers and/or contrarian and bought at these low prices. If so, how many of them are left to buy? I think it can't be many and any rise should see stiff resistance as I think potential sellers, day traders, shorters and MMs, should far outnumber the buyers.
But that is only a guess.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, normal, but buy percentage movement was small enough to be considered flat. The short percentage was small enough to suggest that either we had some MMs in a short-term long position, which would explain the price recovery upward as they moved to market to take profits, or there were a high percentage on inter/intra-broker trades, which are less likely to generate short sales flags. Looking at the intra-day price movements over the last few days I would guess MMs had a fair number of attractive buying prices, which could support the short-term long thesis.
The spread contracted again but is still wide enough to suggest more downside is available near-term. Combined with the day's VWAP drop of 1% it even seems more likely.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held steady for the fifth day at 16 negatives and 8 positives. Change since 11/18 is -$0.1640, -17.75%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.7936%, -0.8037%, -0.7222%, -0.7346%, -0.6354%, -0.0814%, -0.0607%, 0.3441%, 0.5853%, and 0.6555%.
All in, nothing here is strongly suggesting near-term positive movement is likely and a couple items - spread and buy percentage - suggest near-term negative as most likely.
Bill
Conventional TA stuff is mixed with longer-term indicators such as the SMAs still weakening, in the "proper" order too, while shorter-term oscillators have gone mixed with the most important ones showing some improvement, although all are still very weak. My read on the intra-day action doesn't suggest apparent strength though (see intra-day breakdown below) and I am negative for now while I await development of whatever the next trend is. I don't think there's enough contrarians and/or $CPST bulls out in the market to drive any substantial price increases and everybody is likely wise to $CPST normal behavior now and won't be fooled by PRs and will be aware that conditions suggest another round of capital raise is likely somewhere down the road. At anywhere near these price levels the next deal would be an even worse deal than this last one.
We touched my anticipated $0.75 quite solidly today by 9:58. At 10:11 a halting slow recovery began that got up to $0.76 at 10:31, made an almost 2 penny rise to $0.78 at 11:58 - nothing strange about that now, is there? Anyway, at 12:10 a rapid drop began that got trade range to $0.765/$0.77 by 12:11. The common following flattish period ended about 13:01 and range dropped to $0.7565/$0.762x through about 13:38. The next flattish $0.764x/$0.769 period ended at 15:08/ From then to the close we just did a wider-spread $0.7609/90 into the close at $0.7760, courtesy of the MMM (Market-Maker Magic).
The watch now becomes whether that $0.75 will offer support or cave, as have so many prior support points over time.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-09:55 opened the day with a 1,745 sell for $0.7650 & $0.7650 x 700, $0.7675 x 880. Then came 9:32's b/a 378:1.8K $0.7650/74, 9:32's 750 $0.7855, 9:33's b/a 300:1.8K $0.7651/74, 9:37's 200 $0.7658, 9:38's b/a 200:700 $0.7651/70, 9:40's 300 $0.7670, 9:42-:43's 1.1K $0.7651, 9:44's b/a 400:1K $0.7651/73, 9:45's 574 $0.7651, 9:48's b/a 100:200 $0.7660/72, 9:49's b/a 100:500 $0.7660/69, 9:51's b/a 45:900 $0.7660/64 (bid backed by presented 1.8K $0.7650), 9:53's 100 $0.7663, 9:54's ~1.1K $0.7674/51. The period ended on 9:55's 2.4K $0.7650/1.
9:56-10:27 did a rapid drop on 9:56's 978 $0.76, 9:57's 22.9K $0.7601/0/$0.7550/$0.76, and 9:58's 600 $0.75. Trade was very low/no-volume at $0.75 through 10:04. 10:05's 1.1K $0.7500/1 began an attempt to recover some of the loss. B/a at 10:08 was 50K:200 $0.7500/21. 10:11's 829 hit $0.7516, 10:13's 2.5K hit $0.7512/$0.7520, 10:18's 800 hit $0.7576. The period ended on 10:27's 200 $0.7522.
10:28-11:50, after three no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.7528/$0.76 on 10:31's 2.2K bump up: $0.7522/21/$0.76. B/a at 10:31 was 400:1.1K $0.7522/99, 10:39 1.2K:179 $0.7529/31, 10:46 1.3K:200 $0.7544/$0.76. Then began low/medium-volume $0.7545/$0.76. B/a at 10:50 was 1.1K:200 $0.7565/$0.76 (MMs jiggling the bids up/down a lot) and some stability, on extremely low/no-volume, at $0.7527/67 appeared. B/a at 10:52 was 1.2K:200 $0.7558/67, 11:02 2.4K:300 $0.7527/67 (MMs jiggling the bids up/down a lot). Range then went $0.7531/74. B/a at 11:19 was 1.2K:300 $0.7529/67. Volume was interrupted by 11:24's 10.1K $0.7531/74. Range became $0.7533/74. B/a at 11:29 was 1.9K:200 $0.7533/74. Range went $0.7530/$0.76 at 11:42. B/a at was 11:47 3.7K:1.5K $0.7530/$0.76. The period ended on 11:50's5.1K $0.76.
11:51-12:57, after one no-trades minute, began a very low/no-volume $0.7706/$0.78 after doing 11:52's 100 $0.7607 and hitting 11:58's 100 $0.78. B/a at 12:00 was 2.3K:1.9K $0.7703/$0.78. Range got lowered to $0.7655/$0.77 when 12:10's 8K did $0.7748/08/07/08/06/00. B/a at 12:19 was 5.8K:3.8K $0.7655/$0.77, 12:32 100:3.8K $0.7655/$0.77, 12:47 5.6K:3.4K $0.7655/$0.77. The period ended on 12:57's 9.4K $0.7655.
12:58-13:37, after six no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume $0.7565/$0.7626 on 13:04's 1K $0.7629. B/a at 13:02 was 800:600 $0.7565/$0.7631, 13:17 900:300 $0.7566/$0.7626, 13:33 700:100 $0.7603/25 (MMs jiggling bids up/down), 13:47 1.2K:5K $0.7628/90. The period ended on 13:37's 100 $0.7628.
13:38-14:41, after one no-trades minute, began extremely low/no-volume $0.7646/90 on 13:39's 100 $0.769. Lows began creeping up at 13:58. B/a at 14:02 was 400:4.7K $0.7654/90, 14:16 200:200 $0.7653/76. Highs dropped at 14:17 to $0.7667. B/a at 14:31 was 29:100 $0.7651/81 (bid backed by presented 1K $0.7650). The period ended on 14:41's100 $0.7668.
14:42-15:08, after one no-trades minute, began extremely low/no-volume $0.7674/5 after 14:43's 9.8K $0.7625/00/65/40/ ... 46/40/25/46/25/20/78/62/78. B/a at 14:47 was 2.2K:400 $0.7600/76, 15:02 300:100 $0.7601/74. The period ended on 15:08's 100 $0.7681 and 15:08's 1.7K $0.7681/5.
15:09-16:00 began an extremely low/no-volume, wide-range $0.7604/$0.7690 (with lows sagging to $0.7601/00) on 15:09's 300 $0.7627. B/a at 15:20 was 200:4.9K $0.7601/90, 15:32 200:4.6K $0.7609/90, 15:47 300:4.9K $0.7601/90. The period and day ended on 15:59 950 $0.7622/00/90/30 and 16:00's 815 $0.7760 buy.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening trade, there were 5 larger trades totaling 34,917, 22.96% of day's volume, with a $0.7575 VWAP. Considering the trade volume is less than half the 10-day average I guess the count is reasonable. The percentage of trade volume is right in the normal range. A small change from recent - the VWAP is below the day's $0.7602. Looking at where they are clustered and the buy percentages it makes sense. My guess is a good part of these were taken by the MMs and sold into the market later, explaining why price was again sort of pushed up during the day, just as has been seen so many days recently.
Not much to say - buy percentages reflect what we see in the VWAP movements - a tad over a penny range in the VWAPs. Note the comment above related to the larger trades though.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:55 9809 $0.7650 $0.7675 $7,509.20 $0.7655 6.45% 16.38%
10:27 38675 $0.7500 $0.7601 $29,246.12 $0.7562 25.43% 24.48% Incl 09:57 $0.7600 5,587
11:50 48315 $0.7521 $0.7600 $36,524.17 $0.7560 31.77% 36.03% Incl 11:14 $0.7530 10,000 11:24 $0.7531 10,000
12:57 25024 $0.7655 $0.7800 $19,232.13 $0.7685 16.45% 40.58% Incl 12:57 $0.7655 4,000 5,330
13:37 2486 $0.7565 $0.7629 $1,892.23 $0.7612 1.63% 41.15%
14:41 6161 $0.7625 $0.7690 $4,725.05 $0.7669 4.05% 42.04%
15:08 11914 $0.7520 $0.7685 $9,062.87 $0.7607 7.83% 42.72%
16:00 7388 $0.7600 $0.7760 $5,659.14 $0.7660 4.86% 43.50%
N.B. Note in the following that the improvement in the low is because I use the low of $0.74 seen AH yesterday and today's low was $0.75. If I used the "official" low of $0.76 yesterday the movement would be -1.32%.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
Well, that's a nice change! Everything but the high is improved (but see note above). Combined with the rising volume it's almost enough to cause a foolish enthusiasm to emerge in the "animal spirits".__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 0.66% 1.35% -0.08% 1.09% 14.73%
Prior -2.56% -2.05% -1.19% 0.92% -55.63%
On my minimal chart we again had a lower high (marginally and the fourth consecutive day), the low broke the three-day $0.76 (ignoring yesterday's AH $0.74) and went on to touch my anticipated $0.75, and the close was higher. The higher close, meaning "an up day", was on higher volume, suggesting some strength to the upside. But that's just the usual "flack", I think, put up to hide what's really going on. Look at the intra-day breakdown above and note what and when the various highs, lows, VWAPs and buy percentages were and where the strongest volume came in.
IMO the close was just the normal MM set up to attempt to suck more money out of the hapless market participants, if any are left, and/or other MMs. Their bots do battle you know.
The fast EMA finally stopped it descent, but still is well below the falling slow EMA, and actually moved up 1/10ths of a penny thanks to the higher close today ($0.7676->$0.776). The gap up to the slow EMA is still huge though - $0.7740 vs. $0.8345.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits continue diverging ever faster as the lower limit is still quite near vertical while the upper limit is just now starting to form a parabolic drop. That one will collapse quite rapidly if we stay in our current range. Look for a very low mid-point to arise before we see any relief appear I think.
The important thing about the low is that it touched anticipated support, did not penetrate it, and after first being encountered at 9:59 resulted in an initial small rise to do a flattish $0.752x/$0.76 through ~11:55 before doing the almost-no-volume shoot up to the $0.78 day's high at 11:58. So there was some modicum of support at that level but the extremely or very low volume for the rest of the day does not reinforce that thought of support. I'm guessing it was more likely just some shorts being covered, either by MMs, day traders or shorters.
On my one-year chart all the SMAs continue to decline.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had all but momentum and MFI (untrusted by me) weakened more. Those two exceptions improved slightly. Everything that has an oversold line was very deeply into that area. Williams % R was -108.9987 and full stochastic was -3.1029.
Today improvement occurred in RSI (barely above oversold), momentum (still below neutral), Williams %R (still oversold but up to -0.88xx), and full stochastic (still oversold at 8). MFI (untrusted by me) weakened and is in oversold at 0. ADX-related is flat.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.7031 and $1.0007 ($0.7069 and $1.0193 yesterday), are falling but switched to converging as the upper limit falls more rapidly. The question, of course, is will price move towards the mid-point, today roughly $0.85, or will the mid-point move toward where price is currently. Being we just hit the $0.75 untested potential support I not yet willing to guess which scenario is more likely.
All in, seeing some oscillator improvement would suggest a more positive outlook than I've had recently. But I'm not going to be swayed by that yet because this was our first drop to the previously untested potential support and we had rising volume in the price range that was low (see intra-day breakdown above) - 57%+ was in the $0.75xx VWAP area the first couple hours of the day with ~35% subsequently in the $0.76xx VWAP range for the last ~2/3rds of the day. I'm suspecting that MMs bought in the low part of the day and sold later and so aren't left in a short-term long position. If the MMs are in a market-neutral position they will have no reason to hold price higher, but will follow whatever market sentiment is to make their money.
There is a possibility, I guess, that some folks in the market are still believers and/or contrarian and bought at these low prices. If so, how many of them are left to buy? I think it can't be many and any rise should see stiff resistance as I think potential sellers, day traders, shorters and MMs, should far outnumber the buyers.
But that is only a guess.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, normal, but buy percentage movement was small enough to be considered flat. The short percentage was small enough to suggest that either we had some MMs in a short-term long position, which would explain the price recovery upward as they moved to market to take profits, or there were a high percentage on inter/intra-broker trades, which are less likely to generate short sales flags. Looking at the intra-day price movements over the last few days I would guess MMs had a fair number of attractive buying prices, which could support the short-term long thesis.
The spread contracted again but is still wide enough to suggest more downside is available near-term. Combined with the day's VWAP drop of 1% it even seems more likely.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held steady for the fifth day at 16 negatives and 8 positives. Change since 11/18 is -$0.1640, -17.75%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.7936%, -0.8037%, -0.7222%, -0.7346%, -0.6354%, -0.0814%, -0.0607%, 0.3441%, 0.5853%, and 0.6555%.
All in, nothing here is strongly suggesting near-term positive movement is likely and a couple items - spread and buy percentage - suggest near-term negative as most likely.
Bill
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