Wednesday, December 21, 2016 5:07:37 PM
Guess what happens on 01/20/2017....Trump's inauguration. I read an article this morning saying that shortly after Trump takes office the PM markets could turn higher because of policies he'll be looking to implement. Here are a few of the reasons the article gave.
1) The Republican Party has been historically associated with significant U.S.dollar downtrends. Trump has said he wants a lower dollar and if he wants to be competitive with the rest of the world he will have to get the dollar lower. A higher dollar makes us less competitive.
2) If rates continue to rise and Trump increases gov. debt, while cutting taxes the U.S.gov.'s credit rating could get downgraded again, adding more downward pressure on the dollar.
3) Inflation is good for gold and when interest rates rise that will incentivize the banks to make loans to the private sector and move even more money out of the U.S. bond market. This should cause inflation to rise faster than might be expected. That will stimulate PM prices rapidly if inflation gets out of control.
4) We're technically approaching 14 year dollar highs and in the PM market we've corrected significantly from those Summer highs.
That trade is due to flip in the not too distant future.
I'm not even taking into account all the potential land-mines we could see blow up in the rest of the world economies/banks.
In short, if Trump gets what he says he wants to stimulate the economy and Yellen can still hike rates at a slow pace then that should be a very conducive environment for PM's to appreciate in value. We'll see how it plays out.
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