Not at all. I didn't neglect any of this.
First off, let me start by pointing out that TeamTOC's claims that the company had enough cash to repay the loan due yesterday at the start of Q3 are absolutely false! There is no way they could have paid this loan in full if requested yesterday, UNLESS they have raised additional cash by other means not disclosed (another loan this quarter, forward sale undisclosed, or disposition of an asset they wouldn't have mentioned, etc.)
Indeed, the company had 26.7 million of total cash and bullion inventory at the start of Q3 (see statement for yourself). That includes 8.75 million of RESTRICTED CASH that is sequestered on a separate account to be used only for the last coupon payment on the senior bonds on March 1st 2017. The company cannot touch that cash (Baiyin and Gramercy put management on a leash there and made sure the bonds interest payments would be made in full until maturity when closing the January deal).
So total accessible cash resources for BAA at start of Q3 were only ~18 million, way short of the 22.5 required for payment of the loan principal. And it is a certainty that the company had even less cash on hand yesterday (given its negative free cash flow situation), most likely 5 million or so less after October and November (the company in Q3 went from 32 million total cash resources to 26.7, including one coupon payment of 8.75 million, but also closing of a 10 million loan from Baiyin, so even excluding the interest payment which won't happen in Q4, they lost ~6.5 million over Q3 on their operations and activities in general). Now Q4 gold prices have been lower, so this is worse (however it is possible that improvements in Twangiza prod compared to Q3 would mitigate this a bit and limit the damage).
In any case, Banro was absolutely insolvent yesterday, should payment have been demanded in full (again excluding an undisclosed cash raise). It is likely they would have needed approximately 8-10 additional million to make that payment, and that would be with 0 left to ensure their operations after payment. So worrying was completely legitimate.
Regarding the senior 2017 bonds, however, it is true that no credit event related to those will happen before March 1st, as the last coupon payment is already covered and will happen at March 1st together with principal due, so they do have until then to renegotiate those in theory. But I find it extremely unlikely that refinancing was not a condition stipulated for extension of yesterday's loan. Now, nothing happened, so that's a relief I suppose, at least temporary. Maybe Baiyin and Gramercy decided to extend the loan to multi-years anyway, or maybe Baiyin decided to pay back Gramercy's half if they wanted out to save the day, or maybe (likely) they have agreed on a short term extension of the deadline while negotiations on a large deal that will cover everything including the senior debt are ongoing. Whether those negotiations will yield a reasonable deal, I don't know. Sounds like the IR is pretty upbeat ("bright future", yeah right, almost sounds like a commercial, but to his defense, that's what some of you seem to expect of him as you want him to promote the stock to potential buyers :) Maybe he's doing just that.
Anyway, sounds like a large deal of some kind is most likely on its way (or at least being discussed with Baiyin and co), however, I don't see how it could avoid an significant extension of streaming deals, or something of that nature.
I did make one mistake though in my post whenI quickly assessed how much cash BA burned throughout the first 3 quarters. I forgot the 10 million Dore Gold loan, so the balance is worse actually. They didn't burn 40 million, but 50!
