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Thursday, December 01, 2016 2:42:05 PM
Marquarie on Copper -
Hedge funds have divulged their strongest sentiment on copper for several years, with the sharp turnaround in views enough for Macquarie Wealth Management to back recent gains as sustainable.
In the wake of feedback collected through an annual gathering of industry participants at the Asia CESCO event in Shanghai last week, Macquarie said there was every reason to believe prices around $US5,500 a tonne could hold up.
In January, the price of the red metal slumped below $US4,500 and even last month was trading around $US4,600. However, a stunning rally that saw 14 consecutive positive sessions across October and November lifted it to an 18-month high of around $US5,800 before a pullback to recent levels of $US5,450.
Officially, Macquarie recently upgraded its forecast 13 per cent to $US5,350 a tonne, but the views gathered at CESCO has it tipping that risks are “skewed to the upside”.
“Recent wild price moves were naturally a hot topic, but having settled down, expectations were that the new range can be held and dips will be bought,” the note read.
“From here, the outlook from the hedge funds we spoke to ranged from neutral to cautiously bullish (with one currency-inspired exception), and we were struck by the fact that in several cases a multi-year bear strategy towards copper has ended this year and may be turning long. What a difference a year makes.”
http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/markets/copper-can-hold-on-to-recent-gains-says-macquarie-wealth-management/news-story/989172d55becb368709ccc1c4cf99071
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