Amigo Mike,
When I'm looking at these "undiscovered" little companies. I'm more interested in what they have, rather than what they do. In terms of the what they have, I'm usually looking for patents or some sort of proprietary information. The next thing I'm looking for is validation of what they have. In the case of Zivo the Zoetis relationship is validation to me. Whether or not a a deal ever materializes, there was enough to ZIVO that Zoetis wanted to take a deeper look. Of course, Zoetis knows more about this industry than I do. The continued involvement of HEPI is also validation. Firms like that have the ability to much more in depth due diligence than I can possibly do.
My .30+, is more based on trading history and market cap, rather than on a fundamental valuation. As you know it is difficult to value a pre revenue company, because the only valuation metrics available are theoretical. In the case of ZIVO, they currently have a market cap of around 15 million, if you take into account the fact that the convertible notes will convert at some time that would bring the market cap up to around 25 million(very rough numbers) Given the fact that the market verticals zivo is in, I believe these valuations are still modest. If they are able to get a agreement in place with a partner of size, I believe at that point the market will begin to look at the company in terms of "buy out" value as opposed to an earnings based valuation. With the stock at .30 cents, that still represents a reasonable valuation to me, assuming a deal is in place. At .50 the valuation begins to get a little steep, at that point we'd have mkt cap of over $65 million and a post note conversion valuation of roughly $100 million. So, in my view, it would take a pretty special deal or multiple deals to justify a valuation at those levels.
Also, I look at the historical trading of the stock. I am not a chartist but I do believe looking at past trading does have some merit. With that said, I think we could see the stock go to the .20's in the short term as long as we get a little news. The move from .20 to .30, I think will be take a bit longer, it looks like there's a fair amount of supply to chew through between .20 and .30.
