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Re: x1power post# 3483

Tuesday, 11/22/2016 1:49:04 PM

Tuesday, November 22, 2016 1:49:04 PM

Post# of 3679
X1power,

FSLR is clearly near its 52 week low and certainly has the potential to sell off even more. The short interest (when last posted) showed a position of 14.5 million shares short as of October 31st. It is likely to be even higher at the moment. http://www.nasdaq.com/symbol/fslr/short-interest

In regards to FSLR's competitive position on an international basis there is very little that Trump can do to impact that. There is a world market price for solar panels in $/kwhr (delivered) and they are going to have to be competitive in order to earn the kinds of margins they would like to achieve. I do not believe that low cost 30% efficiency cells are going to be available "soon" as you describe. Cost per watt or per kwhr is the most important metric to focus on.

Without being an insider it is hard to know the real risk / challenge associated with the series 6 transition. The drop in ASP's and excess industry capacity additions along with the ITC extension created a tough year for 2017 any way you looked at it. I think FSLR is making the best of a bad situation and using existing facilities is a reasonable way to take out capital costs for the series 6 transition ($0.30/watt of capacity vs earlier estimates of $.40/watt of capacity). It is a bet the company project so I would imagine that everyone is very focused on making this a success. If it is a success and FSLR can actually deliver modules in 2018 with a cost/watt of ~21-22 cents they will be in a golden spot. They should have their medium voltage DC architecture available commercially by then as well so BOS costs will be even better.


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