Tuesday, November 22, 2016 9:28:52 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 11/21 2016 EOD
Today offers no suggestion of near-term positive moves, unless one is contrarian and willing to jump in and cause it. There's evidence suggesting we may have had a visit from the shorters today and that raises the question "are they back now". If so, more downward movement to complete a reversion to the mean or Fibonacci or even a full re-trace ($0.75) would seem likely.
Let's hope it was a one-day shot as we came out of the recent manipulation higher (IMO) and some really astute shorter just saw a quick short (pun intended) shorting opportunity.
Summary of today's behavior: open high, fall, flat, fall, flat, ... until we just do flattish around 14:15.
There was one pre-market 450 sell for $0.92.
09:30-09:59 opened the day with a 1,472 buy for $0.94 and 2,957 more for $0.94. B/a at 9:32 was 15:700 $0.9340/$0.9398 (bid backed by presented 3.2K $0.93. Then came 9:34's 3.6K $0.9300/97, 10:36's b/a 1K:500 $0.9200/397, 9:36's 100 $0.9205, 9:40's 2K $0.9306/97->$0.9201, 9:41's 550 $0.9397/11, 9:43's 100 $0.9213, 9:44's 500 $0.9215/350, 9:46's 14.5K $0.9350/211/350/336/211/215/210/350, 9:47's 100 $0.9350, 9:51's b/a 300:1.3K $0.9214/350, 9:53's 100 $0.9214, 9:54's 100 $0.9214, 9:56's 600 $0.9210, 9:57's 1K $0.9210/11, 9:57's b/a 1.1K:400 $0.9210/1, 9:58's 1.9k $0.9210/1/0/09/07, and the period ended on 9:59's 1K $0.92.
9:59's b/a was 1000:1.6K $0.9150/201.
10:00-10:33, after three no-trades minutes began an extremely low/no-volume $0.9150/211 on 10:03's 1.7K $0.9150/66/67/69/57/68/83/96/83. B/a at 10:05 was 34.3K:2.9K $0.9180/340 (trying to set the short-term low with this EDGX bid?). $0.933 was hit at on 10:11's 302 and $9.9339 on 10:17's 200. B/a at 10:13 was 300:2.8K $0.9205/340 ( 34K EDGX bid gone, not masked). Range fell back on 10:21's 150 $0.9208. B/a at 10:23 was 100:300 $0.9205/$0.9338 and the extremely low/no-volume resumed at $0.9205/338. B/a at 10:30 was 1.3K:700 $0.9200/336. The period ended on 10:33's300 $0.9201/3.
10:34-11:13 had b/a at 10:34 of 1.3K:200 $0.9200/336. After two no-trades minutes trade began extremely low/no-volume, through 10:50, $0.9300/30 on 10:36's 100 $0.9330. 10:51-:52 did ~13.5K $0.9300/19/295/319/200/203/319->$0.9202/03/02/00. Thereafter it was again extremely low/no-volume, with sinking lows, to hit $0.9195/293. B/a at 11:04 was 400:3.4K $0.9197/293. The period ended on 11:13's 100 $0.9241.
11:14-12:38, after two no-trades minutes, began mostly extremely low/no-volume 9100/291 on 11:16's 3.6K $0.9190/87/85/82/30/38/12/00/31/00. B/a at 11:20 was 2.8K:400 $0.9100/28. Volume was interrupted by 11:35's 30.3K $0.9102/1/6/2/1/81/80/01/00/9680.
That narrowed the range to $0.91/2 with the same extremely low/no-volume behavior. B/a at 11:35 was 1.2K:800 $0.9180/291, 11:49 500:500 $0.9100/290, 12:19 400:300 $0.9100/290, 12:33 10K:300 $0.9180/290. The period ended on 12:38's 100 $0.92.
12:39-13:06, after seven no-trades minutes, began trying to make a small failed move up on 12:46's 250 $0.9235. B/a at 12:47 was 200:300 $0.9181/290. 12:50-:51 did 600 $0.9180/206, 12:56's b/a was 10K:1.5K $0.9180/275, hit 13:01's 2.3K $0.91/2, and ended the period on 13:06's 100 $0.9149.
13:07-15:55, after six no-trades minutes, began a very low/no-volume dip lower on 13:13's 6.3K $0.9180/01/00/80/$0.9000, had 13:13's b/a at 900:2K $0.9100/80, 13:24's b/a 200:200 $0.9001/200. Wide very low/no-volume swings of $0.9002/$0.92 began at 13:27. B/a at 13:40 was 200:400 $0.9001/201. Highs began weakening at 13:50 but rebounded to $0.92 by 14:06. B/a at 13:59 was 200:600 $0.9101/$0.9200. Lows began rising at 14:14 and range was $0.91/2 by 14:23. B/a at 14:19 was 20:100 $0.91/$0.92 (bid was backed by presented 1K $0.9050), 14:34 6.9K:500 $0.9100/66 (bots began playing with the offer), 14:48 400:3.9K $0.9101/$0.9200. B/a at 15:08 was 1.1K:400 $0.9050/177, 15:24 1K:1K $0.9050/178, 15:50 2K:900 $0.9051/178. The period ended on 15:55's 1.2K $0.9178/9.
15:56-16:00, after one no-trades minute, began the EOD volatility on 15:58's200 $0.9338 and ended the period and day on 19:59's 3.9K $0.9300/$0.9179/$0.9300 and 16:00's 5.2K $0.9101.
There were no AH trades.
Including the closing trade (opening didn't qualify), there were 7 larger trades (>=5K) totaling 56,578, 29.05% of day's volume, with a $0.9177 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there were 6 larger trades totaling 51,404, 26.39% of day's volume, with a $0.9185 VWAP. The counts and percentage of day's volume seem reasonable for the trade volume and intra-day price and trade volume behavior (a little more normal than we've been seeing recently).
It fit perfectly with my call yesterday at the end of the minimal chart summary: { ... continues to lead me to "consolidation with a bearish bias", ... } and after the one-year chart discussion in my summary I repeated that and added { ... but now with more emphasis on the bearish potential. }
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
On my minimal chart recall yesterday I said adjustment to the short-term triangle (lower right orange lines) was warranted. After adjustment the close was back inside the triangle below the horizontal support/resistance and we closed above the rising leg support. The low yesterday was the last touch by the adjusted line.
Today we again closed below the horizontal resistance line and above the rising support. The intra-day low penetrated the support though. You can see from the movements above that we again had reducing volume, by a cat's whisker though. So volume is not yet suggesting strength in the move lower. It is suggesting indecision though and if/when a break occurs the volume is likely to surge. I'm still of a mind that the likely direction of a break is down because the longer trend is in that direction and we know (well, I think I know) that our recent rise was a manipulated rise up and unlikely to sustain.
Keep in mind that triangle is very-short-term.
If we close and confirm below that rising support the next support below becomes $0.75, using the low of the recent leg down, and $0.87/8 assuming a reversion to the mean from $0.75 up to $0.9799, the recent leg up and consolidation's high.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits both continue the recently begun rise but aren't moving sort of parallel now because the higher limit is rising faster than the upper limit. This keeps on raising the mid-point.
The fast and slow close-based EMAs both continued declining.
On my one-year chart, the 10-day SMA continued to rise for the sixth day while the remaining SMAs continued falling. If we remain at this level, the 10-day will just one more day, the 20-day will fall four more days, and the 50-day would continue falling another 34 days or so.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had improvement in RSI, MFI (untrusted by me), Williams %R, and accumulation/distribution (marginally). ADX-related was weaker or flat. Weakening was seen in everything else. All but RSI, accumulation/distribution and ADX-related were above neutral.
Today every oscillator weakened. Nothing is overbought, everything but MFI (untrusted by me) and Williams %R is below neutral, and nothing is oversold yet. This also fits with my thought of the consolidation having an increased bearish bias.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.7787 and $1.0018 ($0.7733 and $0.9958 yesterday) are still rising, but not converging thanks to the higher limit's faster rise.
All in, nothing in the above suggests a positive near-term behavior to me. The volume being more or less flat combined with the deterioration of the oscillators converts my thinking "indecision", but with a more bearish bias, to no indecision right now - just bearish bias. Adding in the intra-day behavior breakdown above reinforces that but for ...
I suspect that the manipulators may have just taken a break. Today's weakness may have been a "re-load" in preparation for another assault, but in all honesty that's just my TFH thinking. Regardless, don't be surprised if tomorrow shows a bit more strength accompanied by odd intra-day behavior again.
Ignoring my TFH, I would say that's not likely though. The visual pattern is looking to me like it's finally rolling over and likely to do a reversion to the mean, at least, a Fibonacci re-trace, or a full retrace to the $0.75 level. I think this latter scenario to be least likely for the moment.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved opposite directions and in a big way. This looks very negative. Short percentage is well above my desired range (needs re-check) and may indicate real shorters were in our market today, which would be more in line with what the recent short interest reports were indicating than the prior three days' reading within the desired range.
The buy percentage collapsed to barely above 1/2 of the prior reading, possibly another indication of shorters being present. If they are back for an extended period we'll see a large decline in share price as these carrion-eaters begin again ripping at the flesh of the not dead yet company. Rising volume would also be seen I think.
The spread narrowed to an almost normal range for consolidation. Unfortunately it was produced by an intra-day extended decline from the early high to the low and, therefore, may not be as positive a move as we would like to believe. Considering the possibility of the shorters being in the market I think I'll hold off trying to asses this for today.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held, for the fifth day, at 14 negatives and 10 positives. Change since 10/18 is -$0.2669, -22.52%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.9605%, -1.4049%, -1.3868%, -1.4232%, -1.3956%, -1.4743%, -1.7433%, -1.8222%, -1.7635%, and -1.8877%.
All in, the change in the rolling averages of daily VWAP changes trying to form a positive trend is the only positive here. It's got a way to go before we can suggest that's the case and nothing else from today's readings, excluding the spread, makes me think a near-term positive behavior is likely..
Bill
Today offers no suggestion of near-term positive moves, unless one is contrarian and willing to jump in and cause it. There's evidence suggesting we may have had a visit from the shorters today and that raises the question "are they back now". If so, more downward movement to complete a reversion to the mean or Fibonacci or even a full re-trace ($0.75) would seem likely.
Let's hope it was a one-day shot as we came out of the recent manipulation higher (IMO) and some really astute shorter just saw a quick short (pun intended) shorting opportunity.
Summary of today's behavior: open high, fall, flat, fall, flat, ... until we just do flattish around 14:15.
There was one pre-market 450 sell for $0.92.
09:30-09:59 opened the day with a 1,472 buy for $0.94 and 2,957 more for $0.94. B/a at 9:32 was 15:700 $0.9340/$0.9398 (bid backed by presented 3.2K $0.93. Then came 9:34's 3.6K $0.9300/97, 10:36's b/a 1K:500 $0.9200/397, 9:36's 100 $0.9205, 9:40's 2K $0.9306/97->$0.9201, 9:41's 550 $0.9397/11, 9:43's 100 $0.9213, 9:44's 500 $0.9215/350, 9:46's 14.5K $0.9350/211/350/336/211/215/210/350, 9:47's 100 $0.9350, 9:51's b/a 300:1.3K $0.9214/350, 9:53's 100 $0.9214, 9:54's 100 $0.9214, 9:56's 600 $0.9210, 9:57's 1K $0.9210/11, 9:57's b/a 1.1K:400 $0.9210/1, 9:58's 1.9k $0.9210/1/0/09/07, and the period ended on 9:59's 1K $0.92.
9:59's b/a was 1000:1.6K $0.9150/201.
10:00-10:33, after three no-trades minutes began an extremely low/no-volume $0.9150/211 on 10:03's 1.7K $0.9150/66/67/69/57/68/83/96/83. B/a at 10:05 was 34.3K:2.9K $0.9180/340 (trying to set the short-term low with this EDGX bid?). $0.933 was hit at on 10:11's 302 and $9.9339 on 10:17's 200. B/a at 10:13 was 300:2.8K $0.9205/340 ( 34K EDGX bid gone, not masked). Range fell back on 10:21's 150 $0.9208. B/a at 10:23 was 100:300 $0.9205/$0.9338 and the extremely low/no-volume resumed at $0.9205/338. B/a at 10:30 was 1.3K:700 $0.9200/336. The period ended on 10:33's300 $0.9201/3.
10:34-11:13 had b/a at 10:34 of 1.3K:200 $0.9200/336. After two no-trades minutes trade began extremely low/no-volume, through 10:50, $0.9300/30 on 10:36's 100 $0.9330. 10:51-:52 did ~13.5K $0.9300/19/295/319/200/203/319->$0.9202/03/02/00. Thereafter it was again extremely low/no-volume, with sinking lows, to hit $0.9195/293. B/a at 11:04 was 400:3.4K $0.9197/293. The period ended on 11:13's 100 $0.9241.
11:14-12:38, after two no-trades minutes, began mostly extremely low/no-volume 9100/291 on 11:16's 3.6K $0.9190/87/85/82/30/38/12/00/31/00. B/a at 11:20 was 2.8K:400 $0.9100/28. Volume was interrupted by 11:35's 30.3K $0.9102/1/6/2/1/81/80/01/00/9680.
That narrowed the range to $0.91/2 with the same extremely low/no-volume behavior. B/a at 11:35 was 1.2K:800 $0.9180/291, 11:49 500:500 $0.9100/290, 12:19 400:300 $0.9100/290, 12:33 10K:300 $0.9180/290. The period ended on 12:38's 100 $0.92.
12:39-13:06, after seven no-trades minutes, began trying to make a small failed move up on 12:46's 250 $0.9235. B/a at 12:47 was 200:300 $0.9181/290. 12:50-:51 did 600 $0.9180/206, 12:56's b/a was 10K:1.5K $0.9180/275, hit 13:01's 2.3K $0.91/2, and ended the period on 13:06's 100 $0.9149.
13:07-15:55, after six no-trades minutes, began a very low/no-volume dip lower on 13:13's 6.3K $0.9180/01/00/80/$0.9000, had 13:13's b/a at 900:2K $0.9100/80, 13:24's b/a 200:200 $0.9001/200. Wide very low/no-volume swings of $0.9002/$0.92 began at 13:27. B/a at 13:40 was 200:400 $0.9001/201. Highs began weakening at 13:50 but rebounded to $0.92 by 14:06. B/a at 13:59 was 200:600 $0.9101/$0.9200. Lows began rising at 14:14 and range was $0.91/2 by 14:23. B/a at 14:19 was 20:100 $0.91/$0.92 (bid was backed by presented 1K $0.9050), 14:34 6.9K:500 $0.9100/66 (bots began playing with the offer), 14:48 400:3.9K $0.9101/$0.9200. B/a at 15:08 was 1.1K:400 $0.9050/177, 15:24 1K:1K $0.9050/178, 15:50 2K:900 $0.9051/178. The period ended on 15:55's 1.2K $0.9178/9.
15:56-16:00, after one no-trades minute, began the EOD volatility on 15:58's200 $0.9338 and ended the period and day on 19:59's 3.9K $0.9300/$0.9179/$0.9300 and 16:00's 5.2K $0.9101.
There were no AH trades.
Including the closing trade (opening didn't qualify), there were 7 larger trades (>=5K) totaling 56,578, 29.05% of day's volume, with a $0.9177 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there were 6 larger trades totaling 51,404, 26.39% of day's volume, with a $0.9185 VWAP. The counts and percentage of day's volume seem reasonable for the trade volume and intra-day price and trade volume behavior (a little more normal than we've been seeing recently).
It fit perfectly with my call yesterday at the end of the minimal chart summary: { ... continues to lead me to "consolidation with a bearish bias", ... } and after the one-year chart discussion in my summary I repeated that and added { ... but now with more emphasis on the bearish potential. }
Note the VWAP trajectory, how it matches the buy percentage trajectory and where the volume comes and over what time span. This always makes me wonder if the shorters got worried we might make a dollar and started tip-toeing in. They certainly didn't pile in - if/when they do we'll know it without a doubt.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:59 31631 $0.9200 $0.9400 $29,457.15 $0.9313 16.24% 56.56% Incl 09:46 $0.9336 9,700
10:33 3800 $0.9150 $0.9339 $3,500.71 $0.9212 1.95% 56.26%
11:13 18640 $0.9180 $0.9330 $17,222.50 $0.9240 9.57% 48.82%
12:38 42177 $0.9100 $0.9291 $38,662.92 $0.9167 21.66% 30.14% Incl 11:35 $0.9181 5,000 $0.9180 14,500
13:06 14531 $0.9100 $0.9290 $13,327.61 $0.9172 7.46% 33.93%
15:55 71970 $0.9000 $0.9201 $65,661.61 $0.9123 36.95% 32.72% Incl 13:13 $0.9180 5,000 14:55 $0.9101 5,800
15:07 $0.9110 11,404
16:00 9284 $0.9101 $0.9338 $8,528.29 $0.9186 4.77% 33.11% Incl 16:00 $0.9101 5,174
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
What a difference a day makes!__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -1.88% -0.11% -1.96% -2.49% -0.22%
Prior 5.27% 0.11% -2.16% 2.22% -51.39%
On my minimal chart recall yesterday I said adjustment to the short-term triangle (lower right orange lines) was warranted. After adjustment the close was back inside the triangle below the horizontal support/resistance and we closed above the rising leg support. The low yesterday was the last touch by the adjusted line.
Today we again closed below the horizontal resistance line and above the rising support. The intra-day low penetrated the support though. You can see from the movements above that we again had reducing volume, by a cat's whisker though. So volume is not yet suggesting strength in the move lower. It is suggesting indecision though and if/when a break occurs the volume is likely to surge. I'm still of a mind that the likely direction of a break is down because the longer trend is in that direction and we know (well, I think I know) that our recent rise was a manipulated rise up and unlikely to sustain.
Keep in mind that triangle is very-short-term.
If we close and confirm below that rising support the next support below becomes $0.75, using the low of the recent leg down, and $0.87/8 assuming a reversion to the mean from $0.75 up to $0.9799, the recent leg up and consolidation's high.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits both continue the recently begun rise but aren't moving sort of parallel now because the higher limit is rising faster than the upper limit. This keeps on raising the mid-point.
The fast and slow close-based EMAs both continued declining.
On my one-year chart, the 10-day SMA continued to rise for the sixth day while the remaining SMAs continued falling. If we remain at this level, the 10-day will just one more day, the 20-day will fall four more days, and the 50-day would continue falling another 34 days or so.
Yesterday the oscillators I watch had improvement in RSI, MFI (untrusted by me), Williams %R, and accumulation/distribution (marginally). ADX-related was weaker or flat. Weakening was seen in everything else. All but RSI, accumulation/distribution and ADX-related were above neutral.
Today every oscillator weakened. Nothing is overbought, everything but MFI (untrusted by me) and Williams %R is below neutral, and nothing is oversold yet. This also fits with my thought of the consolidation having an increased bearish bias.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.7787 and $1.0018 ($0.7733 and $0.9958 yesterday) are still rising, but not converging thanks to the higher limit's faster rise.
All in, nothing in the above suggests a positive near-term behavior to me. The volume being more or less flat combined with the deterioration of the oscillators converts my thinking "indecision", but with a more bearish bias, to no indecision right now - just bearish bias. Adding in the intra-day behavior breakdown above reinforces that but for ...
I suspect that the manipulators may have just taken a break. Today's weakness may have been a "re-load" in preparation for another assault, but in all honesty that's just my TFH thinking. Regardless, don't be surprised if tomorrow shows a bit more strength accompanied by odd intra-day behavior again.
Ignoring my TFH, I would say that's not likely though. The visual pattern is looking to me like it's finally rolling over and likely to do a reversion to the mean, at least, a Fibonacci re-trace, or a full retrace to the $0.75 level. I think this latter scenario to be least likely for the moment.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved opposite directions and in a big way. This looks very negative. Short percentage is well above my desired range (needs re-check) and may indicate real shorters were in our market today, which would be more in line with what the recent short interest reports were indicating than the prior three days' reading within the desired range.
The buy percentage collapsed to barely above 1/2 of the prior reading, possibly another indication of shorters being present. If they are back for an extended period we'll see a large decline in share price as these carrion-eaters begin again ripping at the flesh of the not dead yet company. Rising volume would also be seen I think.
The spread narrowed to an almost normal range for consolidation. Unfortunately it was produced by an intra-day extended decline from the early high to the low and, therefore, may not be as positive a move as we would like to believe. Considering the possibility of the shorters being in the market I think I'll hold off trying to asses this for today.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held, for the fifth day, at 14 negatives and 10 positives. Change since 10/18 is -$0.2669, -22.52%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.9605%, -1.4049%, -1.3868%, -1.4232%, -1.3956%, -1.4743%, -1.7433%, -1.8222%, -1.7635%, and -1.8877%.
All in, the change in the rolling averages of daily VWAP changes trying to form a positive trend is the only positive here. It's got a way to go before we can suggest that's the case and nothing else from today's readings, excluding the spread, makes me think a near-term positive behavior is likely..
Bill
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