Wednesday, November 16, 2016 9:42:21 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 11/15 2016 EOD
Nothing positive, and lots negative, suggested by today's behavior.
The most significant thing in today's action was the close below the minimal chart's very short-term rising triangle orange lines, lower right) resistance, failing to confirm yesterday's breakout. Interestingly, both the low and the close were inside the triangle apex, with thw low exactly, AFAICT, on the rising support. As could be expected, this occurred on falling volume, supporting both the indecision one would expect as short-term folks approach known support/resistance points and the selling by short-term traders (see buy percentages below) that would be expected as known resistance points and target percentage gains are encountered.
Looking at the intra-day breakdown below, it appears very much like shorters, or short term traders exiting to avoid greater losses, pushed things down.
This doesn't tell us which way the next move will be, but does increase the chance that it's below the rising support. A common behavior is also sideways out of the triangle, common during short-term consolidation.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-10:33 opened the day on 9:30's 6,714 sell for $0.97 & 7,006 more at $0.97. Then came 9:31's 1K $0.9601, 9:32's 400 $0.9799, 9:33's 200 $0.9799, 9:33's b/a 1.1K:1K $0.96/0.9798, 9:35's 100 $0.9624, 9:36's 500 $0.9783, 9:37's b/a 1.1K:1K $0.96/$0.9798, 9:41's 2.2K $0.97 (2.1K)/$0.9695, bots started rattling the offer but settled at 9:43's 2.1K:800 $0.9600/99, 9:45's 200 $0.97, 9:46's 1K $0.9682, 9:47's 1.4K $0.9600/16, 9:48's 200 $0.97, 9:49's 100 $0.97, 9:50's 4.4K $0.9610->$0.9595/90->$0.97 (200), 9:51's b/a 100:1K $0.9590/$0.9699, 9:53's 680 $0.9599/90/85/80/75/70 (yes indeed, an orderly progression of 100 shares each after the initial 176), 9:59's 1.2K $0.9500/10, 10:01's 3.1K $0.95->$0.9301/4->$0.95 (1.3K)->$0.9304, 10:04's b/a 200:300 $0.9302/$0.9499, 10:08's 4.5K $0.9489 (4K)/$0.9302/3, 10:09's 100 $0.9499, 10:12's 2K $0.9498/9, 10:14's 100 $0.9303, 10:15's 3.1K $0.9303/4->$0.99450, 10:21's 110 $0.9317, 10:22's 100 $0.9450, 10:23's b/a 700:400 $0.9303/$0.9450.
That began extremely low/no-volume $0.93/4. B/a at 10:33 was 1.4K:2.3K $0.9318/$0.94 and the period ended on 10:33's 3K $0.9322/$0.945.
10:34-11:19 began extremely low and mostly no-volume $0.9449/50 (essentially our resistance from 11/09, pegged at $0.9449) on 10:34's 200 $0.945. B/a at 11:10 was 800:1.1K $0.9448/50. The period ended on 11:19's 1.1K $0.9443/8.
11:20-11:36 began extremely low/no-volume $0.9312/99 on 11:20-:21's's 11K $0.94 (100)->$0.9399/95/17. B/a at 11:27 was 200:500 $0.9311/99, 11:41 300:1.7K $0.9311/91 (bots rattling the ask). The period ended on 11:36's 2.5K $0.9311/66.
The next period made me strongly suspect shorters were carefully covering, as a continuation of preparing for a reverse split down the road. I could be all wet, but the very low volume and minuscule price moves seem to be in line with that activity.
11:37-12:36, after seven no-trades minutes, began an extremely slow crawl higher from $0.9200/04 on 11:44-:45's 22.5K $0.9312/11/7/6/5/3/2/$0.93->$0.9295->$0.9388->$0.93->$0.92->$0.9203 and 11:46-:47's 1.2K $0.93/$0.9299 (1.1K). 11:53 moved range to $0.9206/10. B/a at 11:55 was 1.1K:100 $0.9200/10. 12:04 moved range to $0.9202/21. B/a at 12:07 was 500:300 $0.9202/49. 12:14 moved range to $0.9211/25. B/a at 12:22 was 300:400 $0.9211/44. Volume was interrupted by 12:23's 4.1K $0.9211/40. 12:31 moved range to $0.9233/9. B/a at 12:36 was 300:500 $0.9226/39. The period ended on 12:36's 1K $0.9233.
12:37-13:10 The price movement reversed course at 12:37 going from 12:37's 3.3K $0.9228/38 to 12:38's 3.7K $0.9221, 12:40's 8.4K $0.9200/27, 12:44's 900 $0.9212, 12:46's 4.5K $0.9200/36 and stabilized there doing very low/no-volume $0.9200/30. B/a at 12:53 was 10.1K:100 $0.9200/31. 12:56 moved range to $0.9200/05. B/a at 13:07 was 10K:500 $0.92/03. The period ended on 13:10's 110 $0.92.
13:11-13:44 began extremely low/no-volume $0.9026/50 on 13:14's ~37.8K $0.9200/1, 13:16's 556 $0.9100/99, 13:17's 1.8K $0.9000/49. B/a at 13:23 600:600 $0.9001/49, 13:37 700:200 $0.9001/47, 13:43 1K:200, $0.9040/51. The period ended on 13:44's 2.4K$0.9049/$0.9067.
13:45-15:55 began extremely low/no-volume climb up from $0.9058/$0.9170 on 13:45's 300 $0.9058. 13:57's 200 did $0.9114. B/a at 13:58 was 400:1.1K $0.9058/$0.9170. 14:24 did 350 $0.92, 14:26 220 $0.93. That put range to $0.92/3. B/a at 14:36 was 1.5K:100 $0.9100/$0.9300. The rise was interrupted by by 14:47's 800 $0.9104. B/a at 14:40 was 1.3K:1.1K $0.91/$0.9450, 15:07 1.9K:300 $0.91/$0.9387. Then it hit 14:55's 112 $0.9388 and 15:00's 202 $0.94. B/a at 15:50 was 1K:2.7K $0.9340/98. The period ended on 15:55's 100 $0.9399.
15:56-16:00 began the EOD volatility on 15:56's 1.3K $0.9200/1, did 15:57's 3.1K $0.9201->$0.9301/99, 15:58'S 1k $0.93, did 15:59's b/a 1K:300 $0.9040/$0.93, and ended the period and day on 15:59's 1.7k $0.9300->$0.9200->$0.9043->$0.9041->$0.9062->$0.9043 and 16:00's 125 sell for $0.9149, essentially our previously defined top short-term resistance.
There were no AH trades.
Including the opening trade (closing didn't qualify), there were 7 larger trades (>=5K & 2 4K+) totaling 42,457, 20.83% of day's volume, with a $0.9316 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there were 6 larger trades totaling 35,743, 17.53% of day's volume, with a $0.9244 VWAP. The count of larger trades is a bit low for the volume and the percentage is a bit low as well, likely due to either larger trades unrecognized because the MMs/brokers did them in smaller chunks or there were none.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
On my minimal chart, above I already mentioned the fail to confirm the breakout. The only other thing of note is the experimental 13-period Bollinger limits continue converging with a falling mid-point as both limits are falling but the upper limit at a higher rate than the lower limit falls.
On my one-year chart, the 10-day SMA continued to rise for the second day while the remaining SMAs continued falling. If we remain at this level, the 10-day will continue rising for at least 9-days, again the 20-day will fall eight more days, and the 50-day would continue falling another 34 days or so.
The oscillators I watch yesterday all improved and all but MFI (untrusted by me) and accumulation/distribution were above neutral. Williams %R and full stochastic were overbought.
Today only momentum and MFI (untrusted by me) improved. All others weakened and Williams %R and full stochastic exited overbought. Momentum, Williams %R and full stochastic are still above neutral. All others below.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.9871 and $0.7647 ($0.7542 and $1.0108 yesterday) are falling and converging. Note that the high today just about touched the upper limit. Will we "push" it up or withdraw? Recent history suggests a tactical retreat is most likely.
All in, strongly suggestive of near-term negative movement.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, normally a good thing, but today I suspect the short sales movement was due to a higher percentage of intra-broker trades since the MMs saw no attractive covering buy prices recently and are unlikely to be short-term long. Both percentages are well below desired ranges and suggest no near-term upside.
The spread widened a bit and was produced by the opposite of yesterday's - today caused by a substantial move lower intra-day and with little recovery.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings moved back up to 14 negatives and 10 positives from 13 and 11 respectively. Change since 10/12 is -$0.4379, -31.98%,and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -1.3956%, -1.4743%, -1.7433%, -1.8222%, -1.7635%, -1.8877%, -1.8884%, 1.9605%, -2.1754%, and -1.7898%.
All in, all negative suggestions for the near-term.
Bill
Nothing positive, and lots negative, suggested by today's behavior.
The most significant thing in today's action was the close below the minimal chart's very short-term rising triangle orange lines, lower right) resistance, failing to confirm yesterday's breakout. Interestingly, both the low and the close were inside the triangle apex, with thw low exactly, AFAICT, on the rising support. As could be expected, this occurred on falling volume, supporting both the indecision one would expect as short-term folks approach known support/resistance points and the selling by short-term traders (see buy percentages below) that would be expected as known resistance points and target percentage gains are encountered.
Looking at the intra-day breakdown below, it appears very much like shorters, or short term traders exiting to avoid greater losses, pushed things down.
This doesn't tell us which way the next move will be, but does increase the chance that it's below the rising support. A common behavior is also sideways out of the triangle, common during short-term consolidation.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-10:33 opened the day on 9:30's 6,714 sell for $0.97 & 7,006 more at $0.97. Then came 9:31's 1K $0.9601, 9:32's 400 $0.9799, 9:33's 200 $0.9799, 9:33's b/a 1.1K:1K $0.96/0.9798, 9:35's 100 $0.9624, 9:36's 500 $0.9783, 9:37's b/a 1.1K:1K $0.96/$0.9798, 9:41's 2.2K $0.97 (2.1K)/$0.9695, bots started rattling the offer but settled at 9:43's 2.1K:800 $0.9600/99, 9:45's 200 $0.97, 9:46's 1K $0.9682, 9:47's 1.4K $0.9600/16, 9:48's 200 $0.97, 9:49's 100 $0.97, 9:50's 4.4K $0.9610->$0.9595/90->$0.97 (200), 9:51's b/a 100:1K $0.9590/$0.9699, 9:53's 680 $0.9599/90/85/80/75/70 (yes indeed, an orderly progression of 100 shares each after the initial 176), 9:59's 1.2K $0.9500/10, 10:01's 3.1K $0.95->$0.9301/4->$0.95 (1.3K)->$0.9304, 10:04's b/a 200:300 $0.9302/$0.9499, 10:08's 4.5K $0.9489 (4K)/$0.9302/3, 10:09's 100 $0.9499, 10:12's 2K $0.9498/9, 10:14's 100 $0.9303, 10:15's 3.1K $0.9303/4->$0.99450, 10:21's 110 $0.9317, 10:22's 100 $0.9450, 10:23's b/a 700:400 $0.9303/$0.9450.
That began extremely low/no-volume $0.93/4. B/a at 10:33 was 1.4K:2.3K $0.9318/$0.94 and the period ended on 10:33's 3K $0.9322/$0.945.
10:34-11:19 began extremely low and mostly no-volume $0.9449/50 (essentially our resistance from 11/09, pegged at $0.9449) on 10:34's 200 $0.945. B/a at 11:10 was 800:1.1K $0.9448/50. The period ended on 11:19's 1.1K $0.9443/8.
11:20-11:36 began extremely low/no-volume $0.9312/99 on 11:20-:21's's 11K $0.94 (100)->$0.9399/95/17. B/a at 11:27 was 200:500 $0.9311/99, 11:41 300:1.7K $0.9311/91 (bots rattling the ask). The period ended on 11:36's 2.5K $0.9311/66.
The next period made me strongly suspect shorters were carefully covering, as a continuation of preparing for a reverse split down the road. I could be all wet, but the very low volume and minuscule price moves seem to be in line with that activity.
11:37-12:36, after seven no-trades minutes, began an extremely slow crawl higher from $0.9200/04 on 11:44-:45's 22.5K $0.9312/11/7/6/5/3/2/$0.93->$0.9295->$0.9388->$0.93->$0.92->$0.9203 and 11:46-:47's 1.2K $0.93/$0.9299 (1.1K). 11:53 moved range to $0.9206/10. B/a at 11:55 was 1.1K:100 $0.9200/10. 12:04 moved range to $0.9202/21. B/a at 12:07 was 500:300 $0.9202/49. 12:14 moved range to $0.9211/25. B/a at 12:22 was 300:400 $0.9211/44. Volume was interrupted by 12:23's 4.1K $0.9211/40. 12:31 moved range to $0.9233/9. B/a at 12:36 was 300:500 $0.9226/39. The period ended on 12:36's 1K $0.9233.
12:37-13:10 The price movement reversed course at 12:37 going from 12:37's 3.3K $0.9228/38 to 12:38's 3.7K $0.9221, 12:40's 8.4K $0.9200/27, 12:44's 900 $0.9212, 12:46's 4.5K $0.9200/36 and stabilized there doing very low/no-volume $0.9200/30. B/a at 12:53 was 10.1K:100 $0.9200/31. 12:56 moved range to $0.9200/05. B/a at 13:07 was 10K:500 $0.92/03. The period ended on 13:10's 110 $0.92.
13:11-13:44 began extremely low/no-volume $0.9026/50 on 13:14's ~37.8K $0.9200/1, 13:16's 556 $0.9100/99, 13:17's 1.8K $0.9000/49. B/a at 13:23 600:600 $0.9001/49, 13:37 700:200 $0.9001/47, 13:43 1K:200, $0.9040/51. The period ended on 13:44's 2.4K$0.9049/$0.9067.
13:45-15:55 began extremely low/no-volume climb up from $0.9058/$0.9170 on 13:45's 300 $0.9058. 13:57's 200 did $0.9114. B/a at 13:58 was 400:1.1K $0.9058/$0.9170. 14:24 did 350 $0.92, 14:26 220 $0.93. That put range to $0.92/3. B/a at 14:36 was 1.5K:100 $0.9100/$0.9300. The rise was interrupted by by 14:47's 800 $0.9104. B/a at 14:40 was 1.3K:1.1K $0.91/$0.9450, 15:07 1.9K:300 $0.91/$0.9387. Then it hit 14:55's 112 $0.9388 and 15:00's 202 $0.94. B/a at 15:50 was 1K:2.7K $0.9340/98. The period ended on 15:55's 100 $0.9399.
15:56-16:00 began the EOD volatility on 15:56's 1.3K $0.9200/1, did 15:57's 3.1K $0.9201->$0.9301/99, 15:58'S 1k $0.93, did 15:59's b/a 1K:300 $0.9040/$0.93, and ended the period and day on 15:59's 1.7k $0.9300->$0.9200->$0.9043->$0.9041->$0.9062->$0.9043 and 16:00's 125 sell for $0.9149, essentially our previously defined top short-term resistance.
There were no AH trades.
Including the opening trade (closing didn't qualify), there were 7 larger trades (>=5K & 2 4K+) totaling 42,457, 20.83% of day's volume, with a $0.9316 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there were 6 larger trades totaling 35,743, 17.53% of day's volume, with a $0.9244 VWAP. The count of larger trades is a bit low for the volume and the percentage is a bit low as well, likely due to either larger trades unrecognized because the MMs/brokers did them in smaller chunks or there were none.
Look at the weakness all day long in VWAP and buy percentage movements. Unusually, the worst VWAP, about 60% of days volume, was accompanied by the worst buy percentages. Usually, the higher VWAPs see the highest selling as folks take profit or shorters set up to take profit. This time it looks very much like shorters, or short term traders exiting to avoid greater losses, pushed things down.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:33 46200 $0.9301 $0.9799 $44,199.97 $0.9567 22.66% 43.30% Incl 09:30 $0.9700 6,714
11:19 7311 $0.9443 $0.9450 $6,908.00 $0.9449 3.59% 48.58%
12:36 50029 $0.9200 $0.9400 $46,464.93 $0.9288 24.54% 36.33% Incl 11:21 $0.9317 7,900 11:44 $0.9300 4,700
13:10 27114 $0.9200 $0.9238 $24,997.79 $0.9220 13.30% 38.10% Incl 12:40 $0.9227 7,000
13:44 45761 $0.9000 $0.9201 $41,929.23 $0.9163 22.45% 39.31% Incl 13:14 $0.9200 5,867 5,867 13:15 4,409
15:55 18093 $0.9058 $0.9400 $16,683.97 $0.9221 8.87% 42.23%
16:00 7225 $0.9041 $0.9399 $6,690.32 $0.9260 3.54% 42.01%
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
What a nasty u-turn we made today. As usual, only the falling volume makes one hope there's little more downside left, but I suspect that's not the case.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 2.65% -1.10% -0.01% -5.68% -46.80%
Prior 7.14% 5.74% 6.52% 6.59% 61.23%
On my minimal chart, above I already mentioned the fail to confirm the breakout. The only other thing of note is the experimental 13-period Bollinger limits continue converging with a falling mid-point as both limits are falling but the upper limit at a higher rate than the lower limit falls.
On my one-year chart, the 10-day SMA continued to rise for the second day while the remaining SMAs continued falling. If we remain at this level, the 10-day will continue rising for at least 9-days, again the 20-day will fall eight more days, and the 50-day would continue falling another 34 days or so.
The oscillators I watch yesterday all improved and all but MFI (untrusted by me) and accumulation/distribution were above neutral. Williams %R and full stochastic were overbought.
Today only momentum and MFI (untrusted by me) improved. All others weakened and Williams %R and full stochastic exited overbought. Momentum, Williams %R and full stochastic are still above neutral. All others below.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $0.9871 and $0.7647 ($0.7542 and $1.0108 yesterday) are falling and converging. Note that the high today just about touched the upper limit. Will we "push" it up or withdraw? Recent history suggests a tactical retreat is most likely.
All in, strongly suggestive of near-term negative movement.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, normally a good thing, but today I suspect the short sales movement was due to a higher percentage of intra-broker trades since the MMs saw no attractive covering buy prices recently and are unlikely to be short-term long. Both percentages are well below desired ranges and suggest no near-term upside.
The spread widened a bit and was produced by the opposite of yesterday's - today caused by a substantial move lower intra-day and with little recovery.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings moved back up to 14 negatives and 10 positives from 13 and 11 respectively. Change since 10/12 is -$0.4379, -31.98%,and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -1.3956%, -1.4743%, -1.7433%, -1.8222%, -1.7635%, -1.8877%, -1.8884%, 1.9605%, -2.1754%, and -1.7898%.
All in, all negative suggestions for the near-term.
Bill
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