AI
Tuesday, November 15, 2016 8:00:03 PM
11/15/16 Ultra-Short-Term Indicators:
Carl and I recently discussed the CVI and Participation Index climactic readings over the weekend. He noted that the positive climactic readings weren't that climactic in comparison to most previous readings for the year. I did agree and it's a primary reason I'm unable to fully get on board for a new bull market move in the longer term. These indicators are considered useful in hours and days, but they many times will coincide with a longer rally. At this point, I see these readings as indicative of a buying exhaustion. Normally I would look at the VIX as bullish right now, but to see readings not reach the upper band even on some very volatile and high advances. There are still undercurrents of concern.
Conclusion: A new bull market that cuts above all-time highs is occurring in many sectors and indexes, but the NDX and its large cap members are weighing down the technology sector. A comparison of the equal-weight technology ETF (RYT) and the technology SPDR (XLK) seems to prove that point. The Consumer Discretionary sector ETFs are also split on their ITTM signals. Keep an eye on the DP Market/Sector Summary in the DP Reports blog or simply read my DP Alert message daily for your concise review of the market as well as Gold, Dollar, Oil and Bonds.
Carl and I recently discussed the CVI and Participation Index climactic readings over the weekend. He noted that the positive climactic readings weren't that climactic in comparison to most previous readings for the year. I did agree and it's a primary reason I'm unable to fully get on board for a new bull market move in the longer term. These indicators are considered useful in hours and days, but they many times will coincide with a longer rally. At this point, I see these readings as indicative of a buying exhaustion. Normally I would look at the VIX as bullish right now, but to see readings not reach the upper band even on some very volatile and high advances. There are still undercurrents of concern.
Conclusion: A new bull market that cuts above all-time highs is occurring in many sectors and indexes, but the NDX and its large cap members are weighing down the technology sector. A comparison of the equal-weight technology ETF (RYT) and the technology SPDR (XLK) seems to prove that point. The Consumer Discretionary sector ETFs are also split on their ITTM signals. Keep an eye on the DP Market/Sector Summary in the DP Reports blog or simply read my DP Alert message daily for your concise review of the market as well as Gold, Dollar, Oil and Bonds.
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