VelocityShares Credit Suisse 3X Long Crude ETN (UWTIF)

[kamakiri]

MM&Speculator Shorts LARGEST EVER (down) moves W/E 11/8/16.

Not so surprising considering the betting going on around the elections that day. Seems like big shorts were betting on or looking for a Clinton win to really tank things.

Speculator gross short move (futures only): + 120,752 contracts (This is 120 MILLION BBL of added 'Paper supply')
Speculator net move (futures only): -76,860
Speculator gross short move (combined): + 163,335 contracts
Speculator net move (combined): -78,235

Meanwhile, the gross Spec Longs (futures only) reached and all time high position of 1,185,058. Mostly due to OR longs hitting a new peak at 541,160 gross.

MM gross short move (futures only): + 100,503 contracts
MM gross short move (combined): + 99,918 contracts
MM net (futures only): -80,517
MM net (combined): -74,711

The similarity of the MM short futures only vs combined numbers shows real confidence, IMO. OR is showing that it is well hedged for the downside to protect their bullish futures only position.

The data looks very 'opposite' of the data from the near peak data from 10/4. Decide for yourself where WTI goes next! Good luck!

For those not familiar with my posts, the data comes from the CFTC here:
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/futures/petroleum_lf.htm
http://www.cftc.gov/dea/options/petroleum_lof.htm

MM Longs&Net Speculator LARGEST EVER moves W/E 10/4/16.

MM gross long (futures only): + 48,779 contracts

Spec (MM+OR) gross combined (futures+options): +71,900

Big covering also from the MM net shorts at -48,842 contracts.

Huge moves, and as I mentioned before, GS and others could be ramping up LONG. Their latest note to ensure enough retail short BAG holders.

Regardless, a BULLISH SHIFT is readily apparent in the futures market.

Play wisely people!

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MM shorts continued flooding the market W/E 7/26/16.+39k gross contracts, and still +37.5k net. Mostly new shorts, and no other moves come close this week. Not even by a third. The move is very strong IMO and there are no signs of significant long side options to hedge. The market increase in open interest of +33,190 points to MM paper supply over any real barrels of crude.

OR has not been dragged over to the short side (yet). Continued covering their shorts -7,517 net short contracts. +19,297 net move. Not sure how much more they have to cover, and this has probably provided some incremental support lately.

NR Moved a little more net long. Again, clearly going the wrong way from price action.

Increased my hedging/protection level to over 3X again. I'm thinking MM shorts will push lower despite having Net positions near record highs, Gross shorts still have 100k+ contract headroom. Previous Gross high reported was 580,365 shorts(2/16/16), and currently 475,779. For reference, recent low gross shorts was 336,741 reported on 5/17.

Good luck, I see a bumpy ride ahead for all of us.

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CoT notes W/E 7/19/16:

MM Group: Went net short -18,443 for the week. Covered gross longs(-7,278) and added gross shorts(+11,165).

: Managed Money :
: Long : Short :Spreading :
289,395 153,309 283,332

Changes in Commitments from: July 12, 2016
5,657 24,100 -12,935

OR Group: Did roughly opposite, but half of MM move

: Other Reportables :
: Long : Short :Spreading :
236,233 82,738 224,700:

Changes in Commitments from: July 12, 2016
3,754 -9,475 -6,723:

/b]NR:Dumped shorts and are now net long +6,421.

: Nonreportable
: Long : Short
: 96,346 89,925
Changes in Commitments from: July 12, 2016
: 1,326 -6,538

Nearly doubled up on puts (and spreads) after reading the report Friday. Good luck to all this week.

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MM covered a little on the shorts and short side of spreads. OR longs got shaken out.

NR tipped slightly short.

Moves certainly explain why the close on 7/12 was just higher than 7/5. I would have liked to see more evidence of OR going more short and effectively holding the bag.

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CoT notes(brief) W/E 7/5/16:

Speculators Combined Futures+Options nearly flat net of -207. Open interest much higher so all new positions well hedged IMO. Spec Net Futures only slightly bearish move of -4,567. MM Net Futures short move of -7,246.

NR went net long. So obviously getting it wrong, as usual.

I'm expecting at least a relief bounce, no matter how speculators move from here. JMO.

Gonna remain hedged and will increase protection if prices do rise

.
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Kamakiri CoT Notes W/E 6/28/16:

MM Group: Mostly covered Long side of spreads. This is a passive net bearish move. Gross shorts up only +5,204, and gross longs down -23,161.

OR Group: Did the opposite of MM. Net bullish move of +14,009. Covered -10,796 gross shorts and added 3,213 gross longs.

Speculators (MM+OR): Net move -14,356 futures only, -26,964 combined.

NR (retail investors:) Flipped to slightly long for the week. +3,518 net.

Take note of the short run, but nothing for Bulls to panic about yet. Breaching high $45 support would indicate massive shorting from MM and/or OR group. Otherwise, increased MM shorts from this last week will be fuel for short covering to previous or new highs for 2016, IMO. Price actioned contained in wedge formation for now. Expecting a breakout before August contract expiration, even if short lived.

Happy 4th of July, and good luck trading this week!

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CoT (brief) It was MM that push the short selling. ~+33k more gross shorts and ~-6k longs. Net about -39.8k. Totally explains the drop to Tues.

OR did about opposite only +27k net, so not enough to counter MM. Net spec is therefore pretty small at -12,597.

NR went Net long ~ +10k, of course getting it wrong.

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It is the biggest gross increase in MM short contracts since w/e 11/17/15. And larger than the 7/7/15 increase.

The Net delta, however is not as large less than half of the July move and less than two-thirds of the November move.

The closest MM delta pattern similar to this week was w/e 3/17/15 which ended a six day run down BEFORE the run up last spring.

Anyway, it just means somebody is very serious about trying to make it go down. If solid support is found above high $47 or $48, then all these newly entered shorts become fuel for short covering.

It's not a panic signal, IMO, but it certainly caused me to bump up my hedges in the 14 minutes between reading the report and making that first post about it.

I'm *guessing* it means at least a run to test the $48 level. And maybe even a down week for next week.

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CAUTION BULLS:MM RELOADING! Gross futures UP +46k SHORT contracts.

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Vacation CoT notes w/e 5/31:

No signs of shorts reloading. Well, except for NR. MM+OR generally covered longs and shorts but increased spreads. MM almost no net move in futures only or combined. I'm sure more signs of who went short later this week will show on the next report.

Was pretty sure this was going to be a down week. No surprise there. Still looking toward July options and contract expirations to force another squeeze.

I'll update when I get back to my desk and can see the data in my charts. Had to take a break and get out of town for a bit.

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CoT notes W/E 5/24:

Still lots of Net Speculator Shorts to cover. Gross Speculator Shorts showing a small re-load for the week. I'm expecting the reload to continue for the next week or two of report weeks, but to have relatively little effect on WTI price. Current trends are showing shorting rounds to be gradually, but increasingly less effective, IMO. My read on the current data is profit taking on longs, increasing new spreads and letting the existing shorts ride.

Going forward, I think this is where it gets interesting again. $50 is a big psychological barrier, that many shorts believe to be a top. The same will be true as prices go higher. I'm expecting short re-loads in pockets across the board from NR, OR and a portion of MM. Somebody is going to short every new high.

And I think that will be the fuel that shoots WTI up at an even faster pace. I think that'll start showing up by the July option and contract expriation for the next big leg up.

Many are looking for a big retrace like $5 to $10+ order of magnitude before we have a chance to go significantly higher. Even fundamental bulls. I don't think it needs to. The door is already open all the way to test $62. Perhaps $75 shortly after that. Consolidation periods have been short and sweet, no need for that to change.

Crazy, right? I'm sure some thought so when I called all clear to test the $48 to $50s range.

Trading wise, I'd probably be happier with a relatively flat channel like last year May thru June. Somehow, I doubt it'll be that easy this year.

Good luck to all!

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Kamakiri CoT Notes W/E 5/17/16:

Like I noted Friday and predicted last week, there was a very large amount of short and spread covering for this report week. The contract and option expirations delivered as described, but there's an interesting little twist in this weeks data.

MM Group covered shorts and spreads. Net contracts +30,095. Reduced -34,940 gross shorts and just -4,845 longs. Roughly -20k more options spreads covered. Combined net only slightly higher than futures only at +30,475.

OR Group surged to new net highs (at least since 2015), and IMO were driving this leg of the rally. The increase in Net contract positions is a whopping +46.6%, or 46,714 contracts. Covered gross shorts by -34,989 and increased gross longs by 11,725 contracts. Combined net is a small fraction of Futures only net and shows a fair amount of downside option protection to the tune of 30k. Reduced combined spreads of -82k are more than half to total open interest contraction of the week of just over -160k. Very bullish moves across the board.

NR Group (Retail investors) as usual getting it wrong last week and ramped up the shorts 21,172 contracts and only bumped longs by 4,171.

Speculators - Well, this is where the ___ gets interesting. Last week, I said I wouldn't be surprised by record short covering. So no surprise there. But lately, that gross short covering has normally been coming with a smaller long covering for the net positive. This week, the Gross Longs are also up. And even that didn't get my attention at only +6,880 contracts. But when all of it is stacked together, it becomes the biggest Net Speculator move so far at +76,809 contracts and topping a new high Net Speculator position of +368,769!

Until there's any indication otherwise, I think WTI continues the steady march higher along with the typical volatility as it sets new highs for the year.

Good luck this week!

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CoT shows massive spread/short covering as I outlined last week. Just the initial look for now.

Certainly explains the recent peaks, as predicted.

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Kamakiri CoT Notes W/E 5/10/16:

MM group reduced gross shorts and longs (futures only) for the week. -11,672 shorts and -32,698 longs. Looks like profit taking to me, as prices were up from $43.65 to $44.66 in the June contract, despite the net bearish move of -21,026.

OR group also looks like profit taking, and reduced both shorts and long futures for the week. -16,038 shorts and -21,596 longs. Small net bearish move of -5,558 for the week. Hedging with spreads, slightly stronger on the short side.

NR just barely net short. -339 net. Long futures +3,049 and Shorts +51.

Speculators (MM+OR) still have a lot of gross shorts available for covering. While there is only about 63k contracts from the 2015 lows, I feel that 718,170 short contracts is still a huge amount of short covering fuel and I predict new lows for 2016 forthcoming. Last year, the biggest spec short covering week was -73k for the W/E 5/19/14. This year there have already been HUGE short covering weeks of -83k+ contracts in both W/E 3/22/16 and 4/19/16. Notice how ALL of these are in the week of option and contract expiration as it is for this coming week. More than 90k shorts covered wouldn't surprise me for this week.

I think we got the flushout I called for last week. I think we see new highs between $48 and $52 this week, and it's going to be a wild, volatile ride.

Good luck to all!

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Kamakiri CoT Notes W/E 5/3/16:

Data this report week is a little low on 'resolution' W/E 4/26 ended at $44.04 and 5/3 ended at $43.65. And net this does show up in the report as a Bearish tilt.

MM shorts showing a small futures re-load +9,111 contract and small reduction in gross longs of -1,599 contracts. With the two big up days and two larger down days ending in little change, we can be pretty sure that the positions last Friday had more short covering, but followed this Monday and Tues with significant shorting. Considering the 3 days after this report were small up days, it seems there is still near-term downside risk from MM activity.

OR group moves were less Net bearish than MM, but had greater futures position increases for the week. +17,715 shorts and +12,704 longs. OR combined positions show little net change, but +36,304 spreads indicate both sides heavily hedged. Which is not unusual for the group, IMO. Activity is Bearish, but lacking conviction.

NR still net short, but less so than last week. Still a bullish indicator.

Still lots of fuel for short covering available whether from a gross or net standpoint.

On a macro scale, I think this is consolidation for going higher. The strength of the activity makes me think a significant flushout may be in order to make that happen.

Good luck everybody!

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Kamakiri CoT Notes W/E 4/26/16:
Rolling forward much like I predicted. Speculator Net combined (futures+options) positions hit new highs.

Still a fair amount of MM shorts remaining to cover. 5 more weeks worth when compared to last year. And of course, that could be shorter or longer depending on the rate of coverage. Reduction of the MM spreads is still the biggest source of profit taking/short covering for the week.

OR Futures were net short, but combined (incl. options) was a stronger net long. So new shorts are well hedged against a price move up.

NR went more short. Always a bullish sign, IMO.

Lots of shorts remaining to cover before prices peak. MM Gross shorts. OR Net shorts. NR shorts.

Good luck trading this week!

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Kamakiri CoT Notes W/E 4/19/16:

Short/draft version since I skipped last week due to fake Freeze anticipation...

Huge MM short and spread covering. -49.8M bbl worth of (gross)shorts, -37.7M bbl worth of spreads on the futures only report. Futures+options showing bigger under the spread column -59.25M bbl worth.

So massive/overweight market manipulation positions have been taken off the table. A lot of 'Fuel' for short covering used.

Still a fair amount of net shorts outstanding for OR group. Could be 41k to 55k+ net short contracts to cover there. From a gross stand point easily 20k to maybe 30k.

Looks like Doha turned out to be the perfect distraction to cover! WTI price was down a dollar between this and the 4/12 report.

Good luck to us all!

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Kamakiri CoT Notes W/E 4/5/16:
MM shorts increased last week and caused the dip through Tuesday. Combined with closing of Long positions and Spreads caused a bearish MM net movement of -32,672 futures positions. Combined Net Futures+Options for MM are slightly less Bearish at -26,243, indicating heavier new Call option positions.

Conversely, OR mounted or continued a very Bullish charge for the week. Gross long positions increased +29,455, and a fairly strong Net +17,275.

The good news for oil Bulls is that the added short position 'fuel' for short covering was re-loaded to a level that is close to the peak levels from Mar/Apr '15. Positions in both MM and OR are very close to that time period and can certainly spur a new rally that rivals last year's +$20 move...off of the 4/5 low of $36. We've seen part of that action from short covering in the latter part of last week.

After quickly going through the report, I immediately increased my hedges with a fairly tight strangle position that kicks in about +/-$1 move on WTI. But I also added a huge speculative out of the money call position that really kicks in at about mid $41 and will go 10x or about 1,000% if WTI tests $42 soon.

Technicals also lean Bullish IMO, as last week closed out as a very bullish engulfing formation.

Still holding a core of UWTI and keeping the rest of the swing shares that I didn't sell last week.

Please also remember that UWTI is currently 40% weighted in the Jun '16 contract CLM16.

Good luck everyone!

CoT quick notesW/E 3/29:MM,not OR increasing shorts.MM selling spreads/longs (profit taking).

Bumped up my put protection 3X in case this is the new trend MM is going to force big next week.

Good luck guys.

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Kamakiri CoT notes WE 3/22/16:

MM short covering ramped up for the week. Massive numbers for late in the rally. MM spreads contracted for the second week suggesting small profit taking.

OR flipped to slight bullish sentiment. Net long with signs of light covering and spread profit taking.

Analyzed together, MM+OR still very bullish despite profit taking. Still a lot of 'fuel' for short covering to continue the rally.

Keeping the near term rally end from last week, but extending the long side 2 weeks. Estimating another 3 to 8 weeks for the rally.

Good luck to all.

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Kamakiri CoT notes WE 3/15:

Massive MM short covering continues both futures only and combined continuing 4-5 week trend.
MM longs increased with current trend to new ALL TIME highs.

Extending my rally estimate from 2 to 4 weeks up to 4 to 7 and may last well into summer.

OR still Bearish sentiment, but tapering.Signs of turning bullish soon. OR longs selling rally, holding shorts level.

Net Speculator (MM+OR) still continuing Bullish trend and position exceeds peak for Oct (10/13, IIRC). About mid-way up compared to last Mar/Apr rally.

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The Real Freeze Target?

Speculator Shorts. I've said from the first meeting that the Freeze was a farce and red herring. I still think that's not far from the truth, but now I think of it as more of a threat.

Why the Big Money shorts? Well, who was most directly affected by Freeze talk? Wasn't the US producers, IMO. Freeze talk would only help them and they're still reeling from the pain in the $40s. Plus, weren't they the the supposed original OPEC target? It was just the Shorts who were forced into reaction from the Freeze. And react they did. Single handed they staged a sharp short covering rally fueled in excess of 154 million barrels worth of contracts between mid-February and March.

From what I can tell, Speculator Shorts had little to do with the initial collapse of oil prices. But they certainly had a hand in driving it down to $26. Twice. At least it correlates to the CFTC CoTdata that I track. I'm certain that they weren't OPEC's target when they decided to maintain production in November '14...but they are now.

So why would I call it a threat? Well, I think it proves that they can influence prices with words. And not even the word 'cut'. Imagine what would happen if they said that in a press release. I think Big shorts got the hint of what might happen if they even try for $26 again. Or maybe the other 814 million short barrels get covered.

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