Sunday, November 13, 2016 1:54:24 AM
Copper Bear Market Over. Here are some ideas.
2 Hrs of idea generation into this post with basically "high level scan DD" **Please reply with any thoughts/opinions on miners to buy** chart saying bear market now over in Dr. Copper.
Copper went up for 14 straight days before going down friday. As always the media is wrong and this was not because of Trump, but was a purely technical event as Copper broke its 2011 downtrend. If you look at daily chart Copper is super over bought so will retrace probably for the next couple weeks but the message appears to be the bear market is over. Here is a copper chart and some ideas for junior copper producers (Capstone - $C 281M MC; Copper Mountain $C 107M MC; Nevada Copper - $C 73M MC). Just for fun I threw in $US 19B MC Freeport which is the no brainer hold if copper does go higher over next year.
Copper Mountain - CUM.TO. Single asset 17 year mine-life 0.34% P&P LOM grade open pit in BC. $C 107M MC with $C 322M in low-interest debt. Have barely been surviving last year but just hit record throughput at 42k TP in Q3-2016. This is most leveraged play.
Capstone Mining. $C 281M or $USD 208M MC with $US 224M of Net Debt for $US 432M EV. Just did $US 50M in EBITDA in Q3-15 or $US 200M annualized for 2.16X EV/EBITDA. Have three mines - Pinto (Arizona), Cozamin (Mexico), and Minto (Yukon) so much less risker than CUM.TO above.
http://s2.q4cdn.com/231101920/files/doc_news/2016/oct/2016-Q3-Financial-Results-NR.pdf
Nevada Copper - best undeveloped asset of scale in North America. Fully permitted, private land, water, power, natural gas all close-by, Nevada, Solar Power deal in works with Berkshire Hathaway, likely to be sold in competitive auction in next couple years IMO. 0.41% open pit LOM grade. Chart has huge upside but also risk as they can't dilute equity en-route to construction with capex >$1B so need a buyout.
http://www.nevadacopper.com/i/pdf/NCU_CP.pdf
And finally...Freeport.
2 Hrs of idea generation into this post with basically "high level scan DD" **Please reply with any thoughts/opinions on miners to buy** chart saying bear market now over in Dr. Copper.
Copper went up for 14 straight days before going down friday. As always the media is wrong and this was not because of Trump, but was a purely technical event as Copper broke its 2011 downtrend. If you look at daily chart Copper is super over bought so will retrace probably for the next couple weeks but the message appears to be the bear market is over. Here is a copper chart and some ideas for junior copper producers (Capstone - $C 281M MC; Copper Mountain $C 107M MC; Nevada Copper - $C 73M MC). Just for fun I threw in $US 19B MC Freeport which is the no brainer hold if copper does go higher over next year.
Copper Mountain - CUM.TO. Single asset 17 year mine-life 0.34% P&P LOM grade open pit in BC. $C 107M MC with $C 322M in low-interest debt. Have barely been surviving last year but just hit record throughput at 42k TP in Q3-2016. This is most leveraged play.
Capstone Mining. $C 281M or $USD 208M MC with $US 224M of Net Debt for $US 432M EV. Just did $US 50M in EBITDA in Q3-15 or $US 200M annualized for 2.16X EV/EBITDA. Have three mines - Pinto (Arizona), Cozamin (Mexico), and Minto (Yukon) so much less risker than CUM.TO above.
http://s2.q4cdn.com/231101920/files/doc_news/2016/oct/2016-Q3-Financial-Results-NR.pdf
Nevada Copper - best undeveloped asset of scale in North America. Fully permitted, private land, water, power, natural gas all close-by, Nevada, Solar Power deal in works with Berkshire Hathaway, likely to be sold in competitive auction in next couple years IMO. 0.41% open pit LOM grade. Chart has huge upside but also risk as they can't dilute equity en-route to construction with capex >$1B so need a buyout.
http://www.nevadacopper.com/i/pdf/NCU_CP.pdf
And finally...Freeport.
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