Holy Smolly, my prediction of 33.5M is off, for the 2nd Q in a row, by only 0.1M. Am I good or what? Ok, I guess the answer is ‘what’ since some of the revenue increases and decreases are in different places than predicted but it still fun to hit the side of a barn. On the negative side, the expected decrease in Fusilev sales was more ‘significant’ than I was hoping for but on the positive side, Evomela has exceeded my expectations and looks to be gaining traction. Too bad management coped out of giving a CC by using some flimsy excuse for not having one. They should have manned up and dealt w the aftermath of the apaziquone adhoc (and eventual FDA) rejection. But I digress, if they had a CC, we could have got some color on whether Fusilev will lose any more significant sales and what kind of trajectory Evomela is on. I am going to assume for the next Q, that Fusilev sales will have stabilized and Evomela will continue to show significant growth. They didn’t mention Licensing income but you know it would come in around 3M and since Seeking Alpha is showing 33.4M total sales, I guess licensing came in at 3.2M. The last piece of interesting news is that they will be starting a EU P3 trial w 218 pts expected to start recruiting in Feb 2017. I assume they had the extra cash from discontinuing the apaziquone trial. If they were ever to get any interest in licensing SPI 2012 in the EU, I believe this trial was a necessity. Lastly, I have to point out that Analysts were predicting revenue of 28.43M, which is 17.5% less than actual revenue. Seems to me share price should be much higher than what’s it at now especially with Evomela sales continuing to grow.
Actual sales 2nd Q vs Predicted 2nd Q vs Predicted 3rd Q vs Actual 3rd Q
Fusilev $10.5M vs 10M vs 7.5M 4.9M
Folotyn $11.0M vs 13.3M vs 13.0M 11.3M
Beleodaq $3.7M vs 3.0M vs 3.0M 3.6M
Zevalin $2.8M vs 2.8M vs 2.8M 2.6M
Marqibo $2.1M vs $0.9 vs 1.2M 1.9M
Evomela $ 1.0 vs 2.0M vs 3.0M 5.9M
Licensing 3.1M vs vs ~2.0M vs 3.0M @3.2M
TOTAL 33.9M vs 34.0 vs 33.5M 33.4M
