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How Much Do ‘October Surprises’ Move The Polls?

By Harry Enten Oct 30, 2016 at 2:13 PM

[.. bits of, how do you think these October surprises rate with unrevealed substance of emails on Anthony Weiner's computer .. ]

President Lyndon Johnson announces a halt to the bombing of North Vietnam on Oct. 31, 1968, leading to peace talks.

News breaks on Nov. 2, 2000, that George W. Bush was arrested for drunk driving in 1976.

Osama Bin Laden releases a video tape on Oct. 29, 2004, talking about the U.S. election.

The stock market suffers large losses the week starting Oct. 6, 2008.

Hurricane Sandy hits the East Coast on Oct. 29, 2012.

The hostage crisis in Iran remains unresolved in the final weeks of the 1980 presidential election.

[.. with the effect of? ..]

Some of the October surprises listed above (the halt in bombing in North Vietnam and Bush’s DWl) appeared to have a modest
effect on the polls. Others, less so. All told, these surprises moved the polls — from the week before to the final week — about
1 or 2 percentage points, on average. None of the surprises on this list moved the polls by more than 2 points.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-much-do-october-surprises-move-the-polls/?ex_cid=2016-forecast

.. details for each inside ..