Just Politics

[BullNBear52]

The Calculus in Six Crucial Senate Races
By JENNIFER STEINHAUEROCT. 22, 2016

A look at the political math in six states where tight races could determine control of the Senate:

NORTH CAROLINA

Gay rights battle + Incumbent slow to respond to challenger = Tougher race for Republican

Senator Richard Burr, a Republican, was thought to be a safe bet for re-election against Deborah Ross, his Democratic challenger, who is a former state representative and head of the state’s chapter of the American Civil Liberties Union. But North Carolina has been roiled by a fight over bathroom rights for transgender people that has affected almost every campaign. The national Republican Party has swooped in to try to save Mr. Burr’s bid.

_____

PENNSYLVANIA

Suburban women + Clinton strength + Minority votes = Democratic edge

Katie McGinty, a Democrat, is trying to become Pennsylvania’s first female senator with a bid to unseat Senator Patrick J. Toomey, a Republican who has managed to keep a moderate image around the state because of a (failed) gun safety bill that bore his name. Hillary Clinton’s coattails — and Donald J. Trump’s anvil — have made a difference here.

_____

NEW HAMPSHIRE

Debate misstep on Trump + Strong challenger = Imperiled G.O.P. incumbent

Senator Kelly Ayotte, a Republican, is suffering from an uncomfortable association with Mr. Trump, most notably when she had to release a statement walking back her suggestion during a debate that Mr. Trump was a role model for children. Gov. Maggie Hassan, her Democratic challenger, is getting major assistance from national party figures like Vice President Joseph R. Biden Jr. and Senator Bernie Sanders in what is widely viewed as the closest Senate race in the country.

_____

MISSOURI

Young war veteran + Breakthrough ad + Anti-establishment sentiment = Possible upset of the cycle

Senator Roy D. Blunt was on no lists of endangered incumbents. Then his Democratic challenger, Jason Kander, an Afghanistan veteran who is Missouri’s secretary of state, conjured up an ad in which he assembled an assault rifle blindfolded while speaking of gun rights. It was a clever way to both fend off attacks over gun control and underscore Mr. Blunt’s Vietnam deferments in a very pro-military state. Mr. Blunt’s decades of service in Washington are also out of style this year.

_____

INDIANA

Revolving door + Trumplandia = It’s tough to come home again

Evan Bayh, a Democrat, is trying to reclaim his Senate seat but is finding that his time as a Washington insider is a serious liability. Representative Todd Young, with the help of millions of dollars in outside money, is painting a dark picture of Mr. Bayh as a greedy lobbyist who abandoned his voters, and Mr. Bayh’s double-digit lead has shrunk significantly. Indiana is Trump country, and Mr. Bayh, who was once a very popular governor, is going to need Republican voters who remember him fondly to split their tickets.

_____

NEVADA

Ground game war + An uncertain Hispanic vote + Reid’s obsession = Who knows?

For a while, it did not seem that Catherine Cortez Masto, a Democrat who is a former state attorney general, would catch up to Representative Joe Heck, a Republican who seemed a good fit for his state and this cycle. But Mr. Heck, by turning away from Mr. Trump after the presidential candidate was heard bragging about sexual assault in a 2005 recording, began to lose some of his base support, living every Republican candidate’s nightmare. The Hispanic vote, important here, is hard to poll. But Ms. Cortez Masto is now narrowly ahead in the race, a battle for the seat of Senator Harry Reid in which the retiring Democratic leader has unleashed his political machine in support of her.

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/10/23/us/politics/the-calculus-in-six-crucial-senate-races.html?ref=politics