Friday, October 21, 2016 9:19:05 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 10/20 2016 EOD
Looks like we are exiting my three-day window and downward pressure is abating. Near-term most likely behavior seems consolidation with a very mild upward bias. Tomorrow should be the first day we can really start to see metrics we can evaluate with some confidence.
There was a PR that didn't get much distribution, AFAICT, about DOE funding Argonne National Labs to test CPST w/H & Syn Fuels. This is a small item and has effect only over longer time-frames and I couldn't see much effect in the intra-day behavior.
There was less pecking of the bids today, especially in the morning. Much more seen were hits of the bids more-or-less matched with hits of the offers, suggesting MMs were not aggressively trying to move price in their favor (lower) with naked shorting. In spite of that I note the short percentage got quite high, likely partially a result of folks that piled in during the two preceding high-volume days exiting. Since their new long positions hadn't had time to settle, the shares they sold had to be flagged short.
I think another good portion were some shorters, likely also quite active the prior two days. Some making new short positions and some maybe just trying to push/hold price down to make covering buys. Looking at the Short Report 09/30/16 one sees substantial increase in the short interest the last two reports, encompassing September when price fell from the $1.7x to $1.3x. Prices the last couple days would offer a great opportunity to lock in profits with covering buys. A part of this process could/would include small short sales to see if price could be moved lower. Regardless of whether they could or not, covering buys should ensue.
Note the early action below where over 1/3rd of days volume in the first sixteen minutes drove price from the opening of $1.18 to $1.07. Then the buy percentage improved slightly over the next 2/3rds of the day's volume.
I think this behavior lends some credence to the shorter involvement scenario and allows me to guess that the downward pressure will not return immediately and we may get some sideways or even small upward action.
There were two pre-market trades, $1.17 x 100 each.
09:30-09:46 opened the day with a 21,570 buy for $1.18 & ~4.8K more $1.13->$1.18 (50). After a couple medium-volume $1.14/5 minutes, with b/a at 9:33 of 25.3K:400 $1.14/5 and 9:37 26.4K:4.9K $1.14/5, the usual early plummet began with 9:41's 33.8K $1.14->$1.12 which put b/a at 9:42 1.3K:2.5K $1.11/2, hit 9:44's 6.7K $1.12->$1.11->$1.12, and ended the period on 9:46's 26.6K $1.11->$1.10->$1.08->$1.07.
9:47-10:10 began a small medium/higher-volume recovery on 9:47's 3.9K $1.09->$1.08->$1.09, and hit 9:49's 13.5K $1.10->$1.11->$1.09. B/a at 9:50 was 600:1K $1.09/11, 9:55 2.5K:2.9K $1.10/1, 10:07 3.6K:4.2K $1.10/1. The period ended on 10:10's 300 $1.10.
10:11-11:52 began a very low/no-volume extended $1.09/10 on 10:11's 100 $1.09. B/a at 10:13 was 10.7K:4.2K $1.09/10, 10:26 500:2.8K $1.09/10, 10:50 700:7.8K $1.09/10, 11:03 600:5.8K $1.09/10, 11:15 7.2K:3.6K $1.09/10, 11:30 7.6K:6.7K $1.09/10, 11:43 8.6K:6.5K $1.09/10. The period ended on 11:52's 2K $1.09.
11:53-13:07, after one no-trades minute, began a very low/no-volume wider spread $1.08/10 on 11:54-:57's ~22.6K $1.09->$1.08->$1.09->$1.08->$1.09-$1.10. B/a at 11:56 was 1.8K:6.6K $1.08/9, 11:59 600:4.6K $1.09/10. After no trades 11:58-12:07, 12:08's 4.1K $1.09/10 led into 12:13-:14's 18.7K $1.09/$1.0950->$1.09/10. 12:22 began an extremely low/no-volume narrowed spread again, $1.09/10. B/a at 12:28 was 6.7K:3.9K $1.09/10, 12:52 7K:4.4K $1.09/10, 13:05 6.9K:4.3K $1.09/10. The period ended on 13:07's 200 $1.09.
13:08-14:26, after one no-trades minute, saw 13:09's 11K $1.10->$1.11->$1.09 begin an initially medium-volume $1.10/1 which tapered to very low/no-volume by 13:13. B/a at 13:20 was 4.9K:4.3K $1.10/1, 13:28 4.5K:4.3K $1.10/1. Price and volume were interrupted by 13:59-14:01's 28.7K $1.11->$1.10->$1.09/$1.10. B/a at 14:03 was 2K:3.1K $1.10/1. The period ended on 14:26's 100 $1.11.
14:27-16:00, after three no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.09/10 on 14:30's 7.4K $1.10->$1.1950->$1.10->$1.950->$1.09. Price was interrupted by 14:30-:38 verylow/no-volume $1.09/10. B/a at 14:38 was 9K:2K $1.09/$1.11, 14:50 500:2.7K $1.10/1, 14:57 1.1K:4.1K $1.10/1, 15:05 1.7K:3.2K $1.10/1, 15:10 4.4K:2.8K $1.10/1, 15:18 4.6K:4.1K $1.11/1, 15:30 4.5K:4.2K $1.10/1, 15:38 4.3K:3.8K $1.10/1, 15:45 5.4K:7.3K $1.10/1, 15:52 2.3K:7.6K $1.10/1, 15:58 3K:2.9K $1.10/1. The period and day ended on 15:59's ~3.2K $1.10/1->$1.10->$1.09->$1.11 and 16:00's 504 sell for $1.09, two cents down from yesterday's close.
There were no AH trades.
Including the opening trade (closing didn't qualify), there were 10 larger trades (>=5K & 1 4K+) totaling 116,901, 28.74% of day's volume, with a $1.1330 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there were 9 larger trades totaling 95,331, 23.44% of day's volume, with a $1.1224 VWAP. The count of larger trades seems in the normal range for the day's volume and the percentage of day's volume seems normal too. Being the third day of my "three-day catalyst window" this seems good as it means things are behaving as expected.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
On my minimal chart, yesterday I said { Having said that, I do believe we overshot, considering the $1.20 new shares price and $1.34 A warrant prices, and think the market will migrate to around those levels over time. If I'm right about that we should see some strength, off and on, after we get out of the three-day window. } Today was the third day and the higher open and low on reducing volume suggests the expected behavior is beginning. The reducing intra-day price range suggests we are beginning to enter a short consolidation period, which would be the first step exiting the big downward move before any appreciation starts in earnest.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits are still diverging and the mid-point is falling.
On my one-year chart the 10, 20, 50 and 200-day SMAs are all descending and the 50-day is only $0.0173 above the 200-day. If our price range stays where it's at we should get a "Death Cross" tomorrow. Having said that, we might get a slightly higher range tomorrow as we exit my three-day window. All the SMAs should continue to drop barring a substantial near-term rise.
The oscillators I watch, which yesterday went mixed with improvement in some of the more important oscillators, including Williams %R exiting oversold but MFI (untrusted by me) entering oversold, today continued mixed but with all but momentum and full stochastic weakening. RSI, full stochastic and MFI remain oversold and all others are below neutral.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.0679 and $1.5398 ($1.1212 and $1.5134 yesterday) continue diverging and moving the mid-point lower.
All in, only the narrowing spread, higher low and reducing volume seem positive for now and that's only because it's acting as expected as we exit my three-day window and apparently begin to do a short-term consolidation before starting some kind of move.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction and this would be good but for the excessive rise in the short percentage, which is above my desired range (needs re-check), and the buy percentage still way too low to expect much appreciation. See my comments above about these two metrics and shorters though.
The spread narrowed substantially but is still way to wide and was produced by a very large early plunge. This one still suggests more near-term weakness. However, if my thinking about the shorters is correct and they've finished their activity for now we could see a further narrowing with a very small upward bias as we exit my three-day window.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings improved to 14 and 10 negatives and positives, respectively, after having held steady for three days at 15 negative and 9 positive moves. Change since 09/16 is -$0.2914, -20.77%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.8923%, -1.0866%, -0.6859%, -0.2351%, -0.6179%, -0.8203%, -0.6925%, -0.9581%, -1.4117%, and -1.5840%.
All in, we're getting the earliest signs that downward pressure is abating but nothing yet suggests near-term big or extended positive movement.
Bill
Looks like we are exiting my three-day window and downward pressure is abating. Near-term most likely behavior seems consolidation with a very mild upward bias. Tomorrow should be the first day we can really start to see metrics we can evaluate with some confidence.
There was a PR that didn't get much distribution, AFAICT, about DOE funding Argonne National Labs to test CPST w/H & Syn Fuels. This is a small item and has effect only over longer time-frames and I couldn't see much effect in the intra-day behavior.
There was less pecking of the bids today, especially in the morning. Much more seen were hits of the bids more-or-less matched with hits of the offers, suggesting MMs were not aggressively trying to move price in their favor (lower) with naked shorting. In spite of that I note the short percentage got quite high, likely partially a result of folks that piled in during the two preceding high-volume days exiting. Since their new long positions hadn't had time to settle, the shares they sold had to be flagged short.
I think another good portion were some shorters, likely also quite active the prior two days. Some making new short positions and some maybe just trying to push/hold price down to make covering buys. Looking at the Short Report 09/30/16 one sees substantial increase in the short interest the last two reports, encompassing September when price fell from the $1.7x to $1.3x. Prices the last couple days would offer a great opportunity to lock in profits with covering buys. A part of this process could/would include small short sales to see if price could be moved lower. Regardless of whether they could or not, covering buys should ensue.
Note the early action below where over 1/3rd of days volume in the first sixteen minutes drove price from the opening of $1.18 to $1.07. Then the buy percentage improved slightly over the next 2/3rds of the day's volume.
I think this behavior lends some credence to the shorter involvement scenario and allows me to guess that the downward pressure will not return immediately and we may get some sideways or even small upward action.
There were two pre-market trades, $1.17 x 100 each.
09:30-09:46 opened the day with a 21,570 buy for $1.18 & ~4.8K more $1.13->$1.18 (50). After a couple medium-volume $1.14/5 minutes, with b/a at 9:33 of 25.3K:400 $1.14/5 and 9:37 26.4K:4.9K $1.14/5, the usual early plummet began with 9:41's 33.8K $1.14->$1.12 which put b/a at 9:42 1.3K:2.5K $1.11/2, hit 9:44's 6.7K $1.12->$1.11->$1.12, and ended the period on 9:46's 26.6K $1.11->$1.10->$1.08->$1.07.
9:47-10:10 began a small medium/higher-volume recovery on 9:47's 3.9K $1.09->$1.08->$1.09, and hit 9:49's 13.5K $1.10->$1.11->$1.09. B/a at 9:50 was 600:1K $1.09/11, 9:55 2.5K:2.9K $1.10/1, 10:07 3.6K:4.2K $1.10/1. The period ended on 10:10's 300 $1.10.
10:11-11:52 began a very low/no-volume extended $1.09/10 on 10:11's 100 $1.09. B/a at 10:13 was 10.7K:4.2K $1.09/10, 10:26 500:2.8K $1.09/10, 10:50 700:7.8K $1.09/10, 11:03 600:5.8K $1.09/10, 11:15 7.2K:3.6K $1.09/10, 11:30 7.6K:6.7K $1.09/10, 11:43 8.6K:6.5K $1.09/10. The period ended on 11:52's 2K $1.09.
11:53-13:07, after one no-trades minute, began a very low/no-volume wider spread $1.08/10 on 11:54-:57's ~22.6K $1.09->$1.08->$1.09->$1.08->$1.09-$1.10. B/a at 11:56 was 1.8K:6.6K $1.08/9, 11:59 600:4.6K $1.09/10. After no trades 11:58-12:07, 12:08's 4.1K $1.09/10 led into 12:13-:14's 18.7K $1.09/$1.0950->$1.09/10. 12:22 began an extremely low/no-volume narrowed spread again, $1.09/10. B/a at 12:28 was 6.7K:3.9K $1.09/10, 12:52 7K:4.4K $1.09/10, 13:05 6.9K:4.3K $1.09/10. The period ended on 13:07's 200 $1.09.
13:08-14:26, after one no-trades minute, saw 13:09's 11K $1.10->$1.11->$1.09 begin an initially medium-volume $1.10/1 which tapered to very low/no-volume by 13:13. B/a at 13:20 was 4.9K:4.3K $1.10/1, 13:28 4.5K:4.3K $1.10/1. Price and volume were interrupted by 13:59-14:01's 28.7K $1.11->$1.10->$1.09/$1.10. B/a at 14:03 was 2K:3.1K $1.10/1. The period ended on 14:26's 100 $1.11.
14:27-16:00, after three no-trades minutes, began very low/no-volume $1.09/10 on 14:30's 7.4K $1.10->$1.1950->$1.10->$1.950->$1.09. Price was interrupted by 14:30-:38 verylow/no-volume $1.09/10. B/a at 14:38 was 9K:2K $1.09/$1.11, 14:50 500:2.7K $1.10/1, 14:57 1.1K:4.1K $1.10/1, 15:05 1.7K:3.2K $1.10/1, 15:10 4.4K:2.8K $1.10/1, 15:18 4.6K:4.1K $1.11/1, 15:30 4.5K:4.2K $1.10/1, 15:38 4.3K:3.8K $1.10/1, 15:45 5.4K:7.3K $1.10/1, 15:52 2.3K:7.6K $1.10/1, 15:58 3K:2.9K $1.10/1. The period and day ended on 15:59's ~3.2K $1.10/1->$1.10->$1.09->$1.11 and 16:00's 504 sell for $1.09, two cents down from yesterday's close.
There were no AH trades.
Including the opening trade (closing didn't qualify), there were 10 larger trades (>=5K & 1 4K+) totaling 116,901, 28.74% of day's volume, with a $1.1330 VWAP. Excluding the opening trade, there were 9 larger trades totaling 95,331, 23.44% of day's volume, with a $1.1224 VWAP. The count of larger trades seems in the normal range for the day's volume and the percentage of day's volume seems normal too. Being the third day of my "three-day catalyst window" this seems good as it means things are behaving as expected.
See comments above about volume distribution, shorters and buy percentage.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:46 137897 $1.0700 $1.1800 $157,202.93 $1.1400 33.90% 31.40% Incl 09:30 $1.1800 21,570 09:33 $1.1400 12,800
09:34 $1.1458 7,400 09:39 $1.1456 5,000
09:41 $1.1400 25,000 09:46 $1.1100 4,634
09:46 $1.1100 15,000 5,597
10:10 30996 $1.0750 $1.1100 $34,129.59 $1.1011 7.62% 33.86%
11:52 62934 $1.0900 $1.1000 $68,807.63 $1.0933 15.47% 33.18% Incl 10:22 $1.0900 9,900
13:07 67699 $1.0800 $1.1000 $73,991.64 $1.0930 16.65% 39.16%
14:26 61007 $1.0900 $1.1100 $67,007.32 $1.0984 15.00% 38.26% Incl 13:59 $1.0900 10,000
16:00 43059 $1.0900 $1.1100 $47,477.33 $1.1026 10.59% 38.56%
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
Being the thrid day of my "three-day catalyst window", I think this behavior is in line with expected behavior. A lower close combined with much lower volume suggests the downward strength is abating, as expected.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 7.27% 7.00% -0.84% -1.80% -83.53%
Prior -14.06% -8.26% -7.75% 0.91% 19.27%
On my minimal chart, yesterday I said { Having said that, I do believe we overshot, considering the $1.20 new shares price and $1.34 A warrant prices, and think the market will migrate to around those levels over time. If I'm right about that we should see some strength, off and on, after we get out of the three-day window. } Today was the third day and the higher open and low on reducing volume suggests the expected behavior is beginning. The reducing intra-day price range suggests we are beginning to enter a short consolidation period, which would be the first step exiting the big downward move before any appreciation starts in earnest.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits are still diverging and the mid-point is falling.
On my one-year chart the 10, 20, 50 and 200-day SMAs are all descending and the 50-day is only $0.0173 above the 200-day. If our price range stays where it's at we should get a "Death Cross" tomorrow. Having said that, we might get a slightly higher range tomorrow as we exit my three-day window. All the SMAs should continue to drop barring a substantial near-term rise.
The oscillators I watch, which yesterday went mixed with improvement in some of the more important oscillators, including Williams %R exiting oversold but MFI (untrusted by me) entering oversold, today continued mixed but with all but momentum and full stochastic weakening. RSI, full stochastic and MFI remain oversold and all others are below neutral.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.0679 and $1.5398 ($1.1212 and $1.5134 yesterday) continue diverging and moving the mid-point lower.
All in, only the narrowing spread, higher low and reducing volume seem positive for now and that's only because it's acting as expected as we exit my three-day window and apparently begin to do a short-term consolidation before starting some kind of move.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction and this would be good but for the excessive rise in the short percentage, which is above my desired range (needs re-check), and the buy percentage still way too low to expect much appreciation. See my comments above about these two metrics and shorters though.
The spread narrowed substantially but is still way to wide and was produced by a very large early plunge. This one still suggests more near-term weakness. However, if my thinking about the shorters is correct and they've finished their activity for now we could see a further narrowing with a very small upward bias as we exit my three-day window.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings improved to 14 and 10 negatives and positives, respectively, after having held steady for three days at 15 negative and 9 positive moves. Change since 09/16 is -$0.2914, -20.77%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.8923%, -1.0866%, -0.6859%, -0.2351%, -0.6179%, -0.8203%, -0.6925%, -0.9581%, -1.4117%, and -1.5840%.
All in, we're getting the earliest signs that downward pressure is abating but nothing yet suggests near-term big or extended positive movement.
Bill
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