Long timers also know Uho and that I respect him a lot. This is a recent post from GG:
The high number of $9 billion for Clinuvel market capitalization divided by 47,000,000 shares would be $192.00 Per share just based on Homm's vitiligo assertions.
I actually do not see the sales potential of Vitiligo near this nor am I of full confidence of Scenesse being a therapy for ALL vitiligo patients. And that as a treatment it has various areas and gradients of therapeutic success in Vitiligo. Phase III will be telling a lot.
His estimate of $70 million for a vitiligo phase III is a reminder that FDA will require somewhere between 500 and 10,000 Vitiligo patients.
I have more confidence in the below for photo protection and free radicals first and secondarily DNA repair and thirdly inferences of gene expressions and pathways to prevent and stop from growing and or kill in each of these cancers or disorders leading to cancers.
Melanoma $5 billion
Squamous, basal and other skin cancer $5 billion
Xerdoma Pigmentosis Xp, Progeria $500 million
Solar urticaria, polymorphis light eruption, actinic keratosis, psoriasis and a myriad of skin disorders $5 billion
Without more evidence and trials to determine if unknown signals, or unknown pathways or counter cascades that may interfere with a Sceness drugs mechanics of actions inferred with what appears to be the endothelial and epithelium cells that are biologically similar to keratinocytes I have high confidence that in a majority of patients in a majority of those patients with most cancers (there are about 106 types of cancer) that Scenesse will prevent and likely stop and then likely apoptosis (kill) cancerous cells in
Oral, esophagus, stomach cancers. $2 billion
Intestinal, colon cancer. $2 billion
Lung cancer. $5 billion
The immune system cancers and blood cancers are more complex and less is understood, but the involvement of melanocortins in eukaryotes is ancient and there are substantial links inferring a complex affect with less understanding of side effects from melanocyte stimulating hormone that is likely very therapeutic.
All blood, lymphatic and immune disorders inclusive of cancers in these cells. $10 billion
I have strong confidence of high likelihood of Scenesse therapies in the eye based on well based studies, abstracts and pathways. As well as the melanocytes stimulating hormone natural occurrences in the eye.
Macular degenerative retinal disorders and eye homeostasis and diabetic complications affecting the eye. $5 billion
I have strong confidence Scenesse will affect the collagen and fibrous disorders, there is something positive here, but it is not clear of many peripheral pathways and intervening pathways interrelated, as is usual for all drugs. To much and to little is both bad as in cystic fibrosis but the melanocytes stimulating hormone appears to be the homeostasis goldilockes here as well. $5 billion
Bone, teeth, tendons, joints, synovial fluid, discs, cartilage and the osteoclasts, osteocytes, osteoclasts and importantly the effects on osteoblasts is building solid evidences that a Scenesse will have positive leanings of therapeutics. But it must be a perfect homeostasis balance with so much left to be understood of parathyroid signaling, calcium balance and all related osteopathic disorders and arthritic inflammation affects and long term counter effects. I think it is going to take a lot of time with studies but is leading to indications of positive therapies. As with all drugs and what is indicated here with melanocyte stimulating hormone or a Scenesse is how the age of a patient, the state of how many stem cells are left, state of the organ if it can not replenish it cells if signaling by a Scenesse, and can a Scenesse proliferate more stem cells in a older human. As most areas of bone and joint disorders are in the aged.
For teeth, the French did the melanocytes stimulating hormone tooth study on rodents because of the in common pathways. But I give no value for Scenesse in teeth as it is too liitle with too far to go. Though the recent study in msh relative to periodontal and tooth ligaments is very positive and pathway logical.
If it plays out with homeostasis long term value $20 billion market to alleviate bone, arthritic, spinal and joint disorders.
Tooth regeneration $5 billion
Evidence is there and building on the anti-inflammatory and neuronal damage remediation in strokes as well as chronic inflammation and immune cell reactive imbalances in all neurodegenerative disorders as particular I have cited abstracts relative to the major ones as in multiple sclerosis, Amyolateral sclerosis, Huntingtons, Parkinson's. There is evidence that several of the theories of Alzheimer's that melanocyte stimulating hormone will stop formation of amyloid plaques and or accentuate the mitochondrial protein flush out of neurons. $10 billion to $20 billion.
The numerous indications implying of melanocortins stopping or hindering development of inflammation and sclerotic hardening in arteries and capillaries as well as stopping or hindering development of immune cell response and plaques is astonishing and would be a most profound therapy worth $20 billion
The effects are there in other organs receptive to melanocortin stimulation as well as many endocrine cells that are gathering more evidence particularly in eating and fat and energy and the pancreas and kidneys and brain. To soon to make a guess.
In its most simple aspect that Scenesse counters free radicals oxidation AND instigates Deoxyribonucleicacid repairs in just what is indicated so far in just some skin cells and leaving out the other cells where the evidence has not accumulated enough is going to be world changing not just in human health but profound. If it does not have a long term unknown as of now and no pathway implication side effect. If such Achilles heel does not present out, then Scenesse is already now a proverbial Fountain of youth drug.
Scenesse is proving to protect the cell from damage, and if damaged to accentuate repair of the damage, and if damaged to senescence the cell, and if cancerous to apoptosis away the entire cell. Being that this is what's happening to a human at any moment while alive and the damage is cumulative anyway, then Scenesse will let ones cells live longer, and its cellular job and organ live and stay healthy longer. Evidence is strong that Scenesse will maintain ones youth and appearance much longer and extend ones life with more healthy years. A good problem to have for Clinuvel is that if one is on one therapy for Scenesse they do not candidate themselves later on for heart or stroke or cancers and a younger person taking Scenesse would not be in the usual epidemiology statistics as of present trends if in theory for heart or stroke. I think with stem cell research and now Crispr-Cas9 and these technologies evolving will make one live in theory indefinitely, but a implant as a Scenesse would still be a valuable signaling. Without a stem cell or Crisprcas-9 evolution (which is lookin very certain) or better developments in telomere repair or replace or enhancements I do not know if there could be a better way then melanocortin therapy to interfere in a good way with ageing.
Numerous studies have attempted to find THE GENE that can extend life. So far it's looking like there is no one gene. And it may be 150 or so genes that have been candidates because of differences in older verses younger or in twins studies. And these 150 candidate genes even in there interactions are not leading to a key to understand aging. Too many transcription factors and gene shutdowns complicate as one gets older. It maybe more of expressing pathways that can be more helpful candidates for life extension with health lasting longer.
The leading theories of ageing with evidentiary studies point that telomeres Shortening and oxidation leads to ageing.......and Scenesse is positively involved. A breakthru in telomerase initiation in cells would be a positive if controllable. But that's also the protein that makes cancer cells live forever and not die, until of course they kill the human by taking out organ functioning.
So as the potentials of Scenesse melanocortin therapeutics morph from basised in fact theory's to realities in the years ahead I think I can easily agree with Florian Homms $9 billion assessment of Clinuvel future market cap. His assesmt that Clinuvel is a takeover target I agree, but I am wondering what I do not see in that the ASX regulations could let a hostile to Clinuvel happen. And any attempt that gets close to 90% would by the fact raise the stock price tremendously to where very few stockholders would be upsetting. Oh I left out one more potential therapy for Scenesse worth $2 billion ...................a cosmetic tan.
