Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CLVLY)

[FarmaZutical]

Long timers all know who Florian Homm is. If you don't, Google him. He has a questionable reputation and history indeed, but he has always had a view on Clinuvel that corresponds with my expectations for the future.

I agree with pretty much everything he writes in this new article about Clinuvel originally written in German and here Google translated into English.

Enjoy.


By Florian Homm For years I have been receiving regular inquiries about Clinuvel, in English and in German. Since I can not possibly answer these mails, I comment on this company at longer intervals. Certainly, I feel very much connected to this company. Clinuvel is one of the most sensible companies I have seen as a financier in my long history. My 1st update came in my best-selling autograph (head-hunting, Rogue Financier, Munich publishing group), in which I recommended Clinuvel at a rate of 1.20 Australian Dollars (AUD) to my readers. The 2nd update came after the failure of the Clinuvel takeover by Retrophin. At that time the price had fallen from about 5.20 AUD to 2.40 AUD. Many investors were extremely insecure. And that is why I decided to express my positive opinion on this pharmaceutical / biotech value. You can find these posts today in the most important forums on Clinuvel in English. For some time now I have received a lot of inquiries. "What should I do after the strong course development," is the most common question? Instead of answering these questions one by one, I share my personal opinion on this title about the board week. What is important is that you should know that neither I nor my family have Clinuvel shares. My employer holds 25,000 shares. However, since the spring of 2014 he has not bought or traded any further shares. In principle, I urgently recommend all alternatives, to consider alternative opinions and to make their own opinion. What follows is my purely personal assessment. This can, of course, be wrong. I do not currently benefit from a positive course development. It is important to me that this promising company will prosper and reduce the suffering of several million people suffering from various skin diseases (EPP, vitiligo, skin cancer). I hope that these updates will be superfluous in the coming years. It would be desirable if a sound research on this company were made by credible, professional and conflict-free analysts (Research Coverage). I am very grateful that I could be involved in the positive development of this company and thank you for your attention. Important note Although the stock market capitalization of Clinuvel has now exceeded the mark of 300 million Australian dollars, this value should be subject to limits on purchases. The daily trading volume fluctuates very strongly and is spread over exchanges in Australia, Germany and America. Background I have been intimate with this internationally active pharmaceutical company for more than a dozen years. Originally, I discovered this company. As she tried to bring a skin darkening against sunglasses to the market. At that time, Clinuvel was still called EpiTan Limited and was run by promoters. The company was almost broke, and we were then at about 0.30 AUD, far below market value. Then the company was relatively brutally, but very effectively restructured. Almost all leading employees and more than half the board took their leave. The current CEO, Philippe Wolgen, was recruited and thus began the actual success story. Instead of continuing to deal with the untrustworthy sunglasses and tanning work, Wolgen began to explore serious medical applications for Clinuvel. The combination of Homm as a successful investor and success as a talented and meticulous pharmaceutical manager was honored by the stock market. The stock price of the stock increased by a factor of forty in a very short time to 12 AUD. In order to implement the vision of Wolgen, we were collecting about 80 million AUD for Clinuvel at other institutional investors. After I went into exile in autumn 2007, many investors lost interest in Clinuvel and the stock fell below 1.00 AUD. For a long time, the stock valuation was below the present value of the company. In November 2012 I returned from my exile and recommended the stock Clinuvel in my bestselling bounty hunting at a rate of 1.20 AUD with the remark that the company would either scientifically and financially succeed or that another pharmaceutical company Clinuvel friendly or hostile Would take over. Exactly the latter happened. After my involuntary vacation in Italy (15 months of delivery in Pisa and Florence), the company Retrophin launched a hostile takeover offer under the aegis of its highly controversial CEO Martin Shkreli. The share rose by 430% to 5.20 AUD. I had hardly been released from the Italian custody, and this overwhelming battle had already begun. During this time, for the very first time in my life, I advised a company as a so-called White Knight against Shkreli and his friends. I got a lot of praise, but I did not earn a Eurocent. The result is known. Shkreli failed miserably and Clinuvel continued her research. In November 2014, the approval of the critical Clinuvel drug (SCENESSE®) was passed by the European authorities against extreme light sensitivity. The most important milestone in the company's history was achieved. Update Annual Report 2016 The latest research report on Clinuvel dates back several years. In an environment without any professional research, the market takes a relatively long time. To understand important data and interpret the messages between the lines correctly. Organic sales rose by an impressive 97% to AUD 6.42 million, while losses were reduced by 70% from 10.4 to 3.2 million AUD. Very smartly, we see the Clinuvel company strategy to implement a uniform price in Europe for the EPP treatment with SCENESSE®. The 30 per cent rise in prices in recent days does not adequately compensate for this good development. The solvency of Clinuvel also improved significantly. Cash rose from 0.6 million to 13.8 million AUD, or 30%. We are particularly aware of what CEO Philippe Wolgen has indirectly communicated in his CEO's Outlook. The Clinuvel CEO expressed confidence in the approval by FDA in the US of SCENESSE® in the EPP area. He also spoke positively about the developments and outlook of SCENESSE® in the treatment of vitiligo. Anyone who knows something better about Philippe Wolgen will know how to take that cautious optimism. Wolgen has always been a very reserved CEO. The Wolgen premise is still "underpromise and overdeliver" (little promise and much more deliver). It is precisely for this reason that we find the subtle expressions of Philippe Wolgen so direction-oriented. The Opportunity Although Clinuvel is now an index on the Sydney Stock Exchange, there is still no research on this title. Neither in Australia, Europe or the USA. The share also trades on various German exchanges and on the Nasdaq. The exchange turnover leaves something to be desired, but the shareholder is absolutely first class. Among other things, Fidelity, the Rockefellers, Philippe Wolgen as well as other brilliant investors in the share register can be found. SCENESSE® has several applications. Not only for extreme light sensitivity (EPP, also called vampire or Hannelore cabbage disease in the Volksmund), but also in the treatment of vitiligo (white spot disease). I would not like to mention other applications here in more detail, but in at least two other areas, I consider a long-term valuation potential of not less than US $ 1 billion realistic. We see the maximum valuation potential of vitiligo at almost fantastic 5 billion US dollars or more. But before we bring our motivation to this insane assessment, we would like to evaluate Clinuvel on the basis of EPP. Currently there are approximately 47 million Clinuvel shares. At a current exchange rate of 6.32 AUD, a stock market valuation of around AUD 300 million is generated. This corresponds to a valuation of around 205 million euros or less than 200 million dollars. According to various estimates, there are between 4,000 and 10,000 people who suffer extremely from EPP and other similar light-sensitivity disorders. The treatment costs are considerable. Although it suggests that Clinuvel's EPP treatment could cost over US $ 70,000 a year, we have estimated a much lower value of US $ 50,000 in our calculations. In addition, the approval of the American health authority (FDA) is still pending. We calculate the probability of SCENESSE® approval for the USA at over 80%. We categorically categorize the market as a whole with a maximum of 4,000 patients. Overall, we are confident that at least 2,000 patients will be treated with SCENESSE® by mid-2018. This results in a very conservative sales potential of US $ 100 million. In the case of a commodity use which is very small, a profit potential of US $ 80 million would be conceivable (US $ 60 million after tax). This would correspond to a P / E ratio of less than 3 for 2018 in the current stock market valuation. A company such as Clinuvel, however, should be valued at a P / E ratio of 20 to 30, giving a profit potential of 6 to 10 at the current price. The following link provides you with the Clinuvel stock chart and other useful company information: http://www.clinuvel.com/en/investors/investing-in-clinuvel/share-price However, the combination therapy for vitiligo is much more significant for Clinuvel. There are 50 million vitiligo patients worldwide. Every year there are at least 1.2 million Vitiligo treatments. The previous vitiligo treatment results from clinical phase 2 are promising. I advise every prospective buyer to deal more intensively with this topic. Especially by visiting the Clinuvel website. It is quite conceivable that the Clinuvel vitiligo combination therapy will be the "standard of choice" in treatments of vitiligo patients. With a 50% market penetration and a low treatment price of only 5,000 US dollars per treatment, a turnover potential of 3 billion US dollars is generated. This calculation is not based on insane assumptions, but has been confirmed by the world's leading dermatologists. We do not want to and will not start from any net profits, but a turnover rate of 3 times for a large pharmaceutical company would by no means be offset. This results in a potential valuation of US $ 9 billion against a current stock market value of less than US $ 200 million. The estimated cost of an extensive Vitiligo Phase 3 trial is approximately $ 60 million. Risks In general, the exchange risk applies. Since we consider the overall market to be very risky (see also my book Endspiel, Munich publishing group), a pearl like Clinuvel should not be spared in a stock market crash. In our view, the greatest short-term risks are that the FDA does not approve SCENESSE® as a treatment for EPP. We see this risk at a maximum of 15%. Vitiligo can not be automatically approved by an author. Here we see the chances at 50%. In addition, Clinuvel has to raise its treasure chest for this project. This could lead to a clear dilution of the number of shares. With today's share price, the number of shares would increase by about 20 to 25% in order to finance the upcoming vitiligo studies. Also, you can not assume without risk that Clinuvel will be able to translate the estimated annual turnover for the EPP treatment of 50,000 US dollars per patient across a broad corridor. It is also not certain whether this price level can be maintained. The biggest risk at Clinuvel is a takeover, which allows a quick profit, but the investor takes the chance to multiply his investment in the medium term. This is why Wolgen has been working feverishly on a shareholder structure since the retrophi- nate attack, which, through the participation of loyal and very knowledgeable shareholders, enables him to ward off a further takeover attempt. Several small capital increases have enabled Wolgen to mobilize highly professional and reliable shareholders who share his vision of Clinuvel as a future multi-billion dollar pharmaceutical company. This could mean that Wolgen is not interested in professional research coverage and close collaboration with investment banks. These defensive defensive measures partly explain the insufficient investor and public relations activities. It is questionable whether he can once again fight off a hostile takeover. With a takeover rate of 12 to 15 AUD, even strong hands could become weak. From our point of view and my experience as a long-term corporate raider, a high share price and a fair company assessment are the best defense against grasshoppers and corporate spies. On the other hand, Wolgen, without the slightest doubt, is a first-class manager and remarkably good chess player. Why should he not first consolidate his shareholder base at very low valuations, and only then, in accordance with very good company announcements, would the Clinuvel story be made public through various Wall Street banks? In all fairness, one has to admit that he leads his company transparently. The website is quite informative. Clinuvel is a trademarked title. Larger investors are advised to contact the company if they wish to acquire blocks. Since leaving the company as a Clinuvel investor, the company has always made it possible for very wealthy private investors and institutional investors to participate in smaller capital increases in millions. Conclusion Despite considerable risks, we do not know any other biotech or pharmaceutical investment, which could potentially increase tenfold over the next 3 to 5 years. Even more rare are promising pharmaceutical and biotech companies of this kind who already have an attractive, approved product and significantly increase their product sales every year. This means that the risk is limited, at least from a fundamental point of view. The undervaluation of the Clinuvel share, which is still absurd from our point of view, is based solely on a shortcoming of first-class investment research, non-existent IR activities and, consequently, a very low level of awareness of the company in the investor community. Nomura already rated the stock at 12 AUD per share about 9 years ago. At that time, there was neither an approved product nor sales, nor any credible vitiligo studies and data. Today you will find a positive entrepreneurial milestone after the other on the Clinuvel website. Clinuvel can hardly prevent the investment community from drawing attention to the company. An FDA decision on EPP will be issued no later than the next 10 months (as of October 2016). With other positive Vitiligo messages is to be expected in the same time window. Ultimately, we believe it is likely that a well-known and respected investment bank will publish research on Clinuvel over the next 12 months. I strongly urge you to read the 2016 Annual Report of Clinuvel meticulously. More importantly, what is between the lines. For me as a successor to the Wolgen, the cautious optimism of the CEO is a clearly positive announcement. Wolgen is known as an archconservative CEO and auditor. This is the reason why the price of the share has been following positive developments for almost a decade. Despite the recent price rise, there is no change in our medium-term positive assessment. Rather, we are inclined to raise our already unusual medium-term price target of 35 AUD. We will definitely stay on the ball and will closely monitor upcoming developments. Michael Uhlemann, the owner of "The Second Opinion" holds 25,000 shares in Clinuvel. These shares were acquired over several years. Last year in spring 2014. PS: Risk-averse investors may consider hedging a Clinuvel position with an inverse biotech ETF (for example, the ProShares Ultrashort Nasdaq Biotechnology ETF (BIS)), or by short-term positions on equity indices or overpriced individual values. Persistent investors can try to buy the stock in setbacks. The stock is quite volatile. In all investment decisions, we advise inexperienced investors to invest in their knowledge and to seek professional advice. Your Florian Homm www.florianhomm.org www.diezweitemeinung.eu Price: AUD 6.32 in October 2016 Stock market capitalization approx .: AUD 300 million Long-term target price: 35 AUD Long-term incentive (simple): 538% Risk (simple): 50% CUV Website: www.clinuvel.com Stock Exchanges Australia: Sydney Stock Exchange, Price AUD 6.50 Germany: Munich, Frankfurt, Berlin, Hamburg, Stuttgart USA: NASDAQ www.vorstandswoche.de Securities: Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (Sponsor ADR), Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals

Will this share multiply again ?: Guest contribution by Florian Homm Wallstreet-online.de - Full article at:
http://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachricht/9003834-aktie-nochmals-vervielfachen-gastbeitrag-florian-homm