Saturday, October 15, 2016 6:58:22 PM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 10/14 2016 EOD
There was a PR about a New Russian Distributor Powers Fed Rail Station.
I remind that today was a Friday, quite commonly low-volume and flattish, which it was today, and the readings we see below ought to be heavily discounted because we might seeing just a normal "Friday Effect" and things might be completely different come Monday. I'm not saying it will be different though, just might be.
Although a tepid, or even negative, response to a positive PR is not uncommon for this stock, with today being Friday we can't, with with any degree of confidence, assess the response to the PR based on today's behavior.
Today's improvement may be interpreted as supporting yesterday's { My very first thought in the first few minutes of trade today was someone wanted to push price down to accumulate. ... } All very subjective and circumstantial, of course, and can't ever be concretely proven one way or the other. I would add in that in the past we have seen evidence, in trading behavior, of positive news being apparently leaked early. Is it possible today's PR was the impetus for what I saw and judged yesterday as someone wanting to accumulate?
No way to ever know and there are other possible causes detailed elsewhere. Given our history though this "leak" thesis has to be considered about as likely as any other.
Today had an open at what would be the low of a long flattish range and then did a dip to the intra-day low around 10:00. Then price came back up and made the first intra-day high of $1.36 at ~10:34 before going low/no-volume, interspersed with sporadic bursts of higher-volume minutes, flattish $1.34/5 through ~14:20. This was interrupted by a brief very low/no-volume $1.33/4 period 13:40 through ~14:00. An almost no-volume $1.35/6 period occurred 14:35-:56. Then the EOD volatility began with mostly $1.34/5 through ~15:43 was followed by as push up the a new intra-day high of $1.38 at 15:52. The last three minutes of the day had a drop back to $1.36/7 and would have finished the day there if not for 16:00's 400 shares at $1.35 as the MM's closing trade.
In all, checking the price-point movements, intra-day VWAPs and and ending VWAP below, a decent day that I believe supports my earlier suggestion the we had found a bottom.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-09:48 opened the day with a 1,004 buy for $1.34. Then came 9:33's ~2.3K $1.3380/34, 9:35's 700 $1.3346, 9:36's ~1.5K $1.3349, 9:39's b/a of 600:2.5K $1.33/4, 9:40's 100 $1.3350, 9:46's 300 $1.34, and the period ended on 9:48's 3K $1.3399/$1.34.
09:49-10:21, during 10 no-trades minutes saw 9:57's b/a 1.4K:1.3K $1.33/4. A drop occurred on 10:00's ~6.3K $1.3301->$1.32 and was followed by 10:01's 4.7K $1.33->$1.32 that began a low-volume re-trace up hitting $1.3399/$1.34 on 10:07's 1.5K. That was followed by very low/no-volume $$1.33/4. B/a at 10:17 was 6K:5.3K $1.33/4. Volume was interrupted by 10:18's 5.4K $1.34. The period ended on 10:21's 610 $1.34.
10:22-13:28 during the initial twelve no-trades minutes had b/a of 10.2K:1.7K $1.34/5. Then a step up occurred on 10:34's 4.6K $1.34->$1.3499->$1.35->$1.3590. That was followed by very low/no-volume $1.34/$1.35 beginning on 10:38-:39's 900 $1.3401->$1.35->$1.34. B/a at 10:50 was 12.1K:1.3K $1.34/5, 11:07 16.5K:2.3K $1.34/5. Volume was interrupted by 11:18-:19's ~6K $1.35->$1.3550->$1.35->$1.3420. B/a at 11:19 was 15.5K:1.7K $1.34/5, 11:32 15.3K:2K $1.34/5, 11:50 13.7K:3.2K $1.34/5. Volume and price were interrupted by 11:58-12:00's ~5.6K $1.3499->$1.35->$1.34->$1.35->$1.36->$1.35. B/a at 12:04 was 4.7K:2.1K $1.34/5, 12:33 3.9K:2.2K $1.34/5, 12:50 1.6K:2.8K $1.34/5, 13:02 1.7K:3.2K $1.34/5. Volume was interrupted by 13:04-:07's 4.2K $1.34/$1.3450. B/a at 13:08 was 17.2K:3K $1.33/4. The period ended on 13:28's 104 $1.34.
13:29-13:51, began with eleven no-trades minutes that saw b/a at 13:33 of 17.3K:2.7K $1.33/4. Then began verylow/no-volume $1.33/$1.3350 on 13:40's ~2K $1.33/$1.3324. B/a at 13:47 was 33.1K $1.33/4. The period ended on 13:51's ~1.1K $1.33.
13:52-14:25, after seven no-trades minutes, began a medium-volume halting climb higher on 13:59's 500 $1.33/4. B/a at 14:04 was 34.7K:2.4K $1.33/4. Then it hit 14:09's 2.6K $1.34->$1.3450->$1.3489. B/a at 14:18 was 35.3K:1.8K $1.33/4. The period ended on 14:25's 200 $1.34->$1.36.
14:26-15:01, during nine no-trades minutes had b/a at 14:28 of 1.6K:900 $1.34/5. Then began very low/no-volume $1.34/6 on 14:35's 200 $1.36. B/a at 1:57 was 2.9K:4.4K $1.34/6, 15:07 2.1K:2.2K $1.34/5. The period ended on 15:01's 600 $1.3409->$1.36->$1.35.
15:02-15:42, after eight no-trades minutes, began dropping initially on medium-volume $1.34/5 (15:17 range widened to $1.3350/$1.35) on 15:09's 700 $1.34/$1.3414. Volume became very low/no-volume in just a couple minutes. B/a at 15:11 was 35K:2K $1.33/5. Volume ticked up to low/medium-volume at 15:17. Range narrowed to $1.33/4 at 15:19. B/a at 15:21 was 34K:1.2K $1.33/4, 15:29 800:4.3K $1.34/5. The period ended on 15:42's 1.1K $1.35->$1.3450.
15:43-16:00 began a rapid medium/higher-volume climb on 15:43-:44's 3.8K $1.35->$1.3550->$1.35, hit 15:48's 13.4K $1.36->$1.3650/$1.37->$1.36, 15:52's b/a of 2.2K:300 $1.36/7, and 15:52's 11.9K $1.37->$1.3750->$1.37. Trade then went low-volume sideways $1.36/7 until closing the period and day on 15:58's 1.1K $1.37->$1.3611->$1.37, 15:59 no trades, and 16:00's 400 $1.35.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there was 1 larger trade (1 4K+) totaling 4,000, 2.74% of day's volume, with a $1.3301 VWAP. Even considering trade volume of only ~56% of the 10-day average, the larger trades count and percentage of day's volume are extremely low. Adding in the PR for today and one might think the market was totally apathetic. Could be, could be, but see the "Friday Effect" comments above. Things might be different Monday or Tuesday but that's not something I would count on.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
On my minimal chart the important thing is we closed above the known $1.34 support (horizontal blue line) after yesterday penetrating and closing below. Today it was on falling volume though so no strength is suggested. However, see comments above about Fridays and even if it wasn't Friday encountering a known support/resistance often produces indecision as folks wait for a resolution, leading to lower volume. So the lower volume is not a negative indicator, it's just a "not positive" for today.
This combined with the move up from the $1.30 low after I had been suggesting "at or very near a bottom" the last couple days is a positive though. Since I peeked at my unconventional stuff I also know we had some other support today suggesting we've indeed left the bottom for now.
The last thing about this plays off yesterday's { The volume is relatively high enough that it could signal the typical bottoming flush occurred. But that's never a certain thing. } High volume yesterday and very low volume today does seem to suggest we had a flush, if one ignores the possibility that today's volume is nothing more than a "Friday Effect".
If it's not just a "Friday effect" it supports the bottom has been seen assessment and we should do begin doing something else for the near-term, like a leg up within a consolidation pattern. Based on recent history a $1.47ish target seems reasonable. However, the medium-term rising support/resistance (rising white line), currently ~$1.41 and rising about $0.01/week IIRC, is between the current range and that target. We could see at least a pause there as it has demonstrated decent support and resistance in the recent past, along with some pauses.
If we don't get a leg up starting I think the worst will be near-term sideways. After "near-term" expires, it's wide open as to what's next.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger band limits are now both falling and diverging slightly with a sinking mid-point.
The fast EMA (squiggly yellow line) has turned up and is about $0.024 below the descending slow EMA (squiggly blue line). If I'm right about having bottomed and we actually start a leg up, rather than a sideways, movement, we'll want to watch for it to cross again and see if it will hold more than just a couple days this time. If so we have a 70%, I'm informed, chance of an extended move up. That would put the $1.47 in reach.
Yesterday I said { Today is more normal in that we had another day of rising volume on a drop. This normally suggest strength in the down move. However, combining the two days I more inclined to think it means we actually have found the bottom.
N.B. This assessment might be more emotional than rational though! }
Ignoring the typos I made while rushing, today's behavior does seem to support the "... have found the bottom" conclusion.
On my one-year chart the 10, 20 and 50-day SMAs are falling and we have 10 < 20 < 50-day SMAs. The 200-day, which went almost flat (but still rising) yesterday, made another small up-tick as the close improved. As mentioned a few days back, if it holds here there will be a rise another day or two and then a few days of weakening before resuming the rise.
The 50-day SMA is now only $0.0373 above the 200-day SMA.
The oscillators I watch, yesterday all weakening, went mixed today with small improvements in all but MFI (untrusted by me) and full stochastic. The others, more significant in aggregate I think, are working upward towards neutral except that above neutral already is momentum. Williams %R left oversold. It's still early with only one day's change in the process but this does look promising.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.2884 and $1.4421 ($1.2899 and $1.4424 yesterday) are slightly diverging as the lower limit drops most rapidly, dragging the mid-point a hair lower.
All in, what I see here is congruent with my assessment over the last couple days that we have found the bottom. Current signs suggest a good chance that we do better than just go sideways, but it is early in the swing, so patience is appropriate for now.
Maybe my unconventional stuff can shed some more light but it has also been whipsawed recently.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions for the fourth consecutive day. This is an unusual situation and I have no explanation for it. The most likely cause I can think of is essentially MM "churn" as they alternately short, cover, end short-term long, dump, short again, cover, ... rinse and repeat. Another seemingly likely cause is suggested by the recent 10%+ increase in short interest I addressed over the last couple days. I won't repeat it all here but the possibility is they got spooked and are alternately shorting (minimally) to drive price down and cover. This would be supported if I were correct in yesterday's { My very first thought in the first few minutes of trade today was someone wanted to push price down to accumulate. }.
Just substitute "do covering buys" for "accumulate".
A thought just occurred - maybe my consideration should be "improved" instead of, or in conjunction with, directional correlation. The argument against that has to do with SEC rules relating to the mechanics of processing customers' sell orders by MMs. In normal scenarios increased sell orders from brokerage houses and/or their customers processed by MMs must be flagged as short sales. Moreover, any shares sold which have not yet settled and go external to the beneficial owners brokerage must also be flagged as short sales. All this makes it not only difficult to properly assess what is going on but may make use of "improved" as a consideration a futile effort.
Regardless, it's good to see short percentage very near being within the top of my desired range (needs re-check) and buy percentage struggling towards the mid-to-high 4x% range, where we commonly see some appreciation is possible even if it's not sustained appreciation.
N.B. Just occurred to me - I wonder if this vacillation of the two percentages might be a sign of a turn nearing, something I'll have to check to see if there's a pattern and/or correlation of some kind.
The spread narrowed slightly but would still be a bit wide if we were in a down trend, which I believe is no longer the case. Since this was produced with an intra-day mostly flattish behavior in which the high's magnitude above the flattish area was slightly greater than that of the low below that area (check VWAP vs. range) I think this shows a mild upward bias for the moment. Let's hope it continues for a bit.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings improved to 15 and 9 from 16 negative and 8 positive. Change since 09/12 is -$0.0932, -6.47% (big improvement from yesterday's -$0.1226, -8.44%), and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.6179%, -0.8203%, -0.6925%, -0.9581%, -1.4117%, -1.5840%, -1.6661%, -2.1769%, -2.3990%, and -0.9457%.
All in, while the two percentages moving opposite each other would be a negative, the relative "improvement" of each to nearer normal levels suggests the directional disparity is not the negative I would normally assess it to be. Adding in a reasonable spread when the down trend seems to be abating and VWAP showing some near-term improvement in trend, along with the averages of the 24-period movements, leads me to think that we have indeed found the near-term bottom and have at least a few days respite from the weakening.
As mentioned above though, I do believe this leads shortly to a leg up within the potential medium-term consolidation.
Bill
There was a PR about a New Russian Distributor Powers Fed Rail Station.
I remind that today was a Friday, quite commonly low-volume and flattish, which it was today, and the readings we see below ought to be heavily discounted because we might seeing just a normal "Friday Effect" and things might be completely different come Monday. I'm not saying it will be different though, just might be.
Although a tepid, or even negative, response to a positive PR is not uncommon for this stock, with today being Friday we can't, with with any degree of confidence, assess the response to the PR based on today's behavior.
Today's improvement may be interpreted as supporting yesterday's { My very first thought in the first few minutes of trade today was someone wanted to push price down to accumulate. ... } All very subjective and circumstantial, of course, and can't ever be concretely proven one way or the other. I would add in that in the past we have seen evidence, in trading behavior, of positive news being apparently leaked early. Is it possible today's PR was the impetus for what I saw and judged yesterday as someone wanting to accumulate?
No way to ever know and there are other possible causes detailed elsewhere. Given our history though this "leak" thesis has to be considered about as likely as any other.
Today had an open at what would be the low of a long flattish range and then did a dip to the intra-day low around 10:00. Then price came back up and made the first intra-day high of $1.36 at ~10:34 before going low/no-volume, interspersed with sporadic bursts of higher-volume minutes, flattish $1.34/5 through ~14:20. This was interrupted by a brief very low/no-volume $1.33/4 period 13:40 through ~14:00. An almost no-volume $1.35/6 period occurred 14:35-:56. Then the EOD volatility began with mostly $1.34/5 through ~15:43 was followed by as push up the a new intra-day high of $1.38 at 15:52. The last three minutes of the day had a drop back to $1.36/7 and would have finished the day there if not for 16:00's 400 shares at $1.35 as the MM's closing trade.
In all, checking the price-point movements, intra-day VWAPs and and ending VWAP below, a decent day that I believe supports my earlier suggestion the we had found a bottom.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-09:48 opened the day with a 1,004 buy for $1.34. Then came 9:33's ~2.3K $1.3380/34, 9:35's 700 $1.3346, 9:36's ~1.5K $1.3349, 9:39's b/a of 600:2.5K $1.33/4, 9:40's 100 $1.3350, 9:46's 300 $1.34, and the period ended on 9:48's 3K $1.3399/$1.34.
09:49-10:21, during 10 no-trades minutes saw 9:57's b/a 1.4K:1.3K $1.33/4. A drop occurred on 10:00's ~6.3K $1.3301->$1.32 and was followed by 10:01's 4.7K $1.33->$1.32 that began a low-volume re-trace up hitting $1.3399/$1.34 on 10:07's 1.5K. That was followed by very low/no-volume $$1.33/4. B/a at 10:17 was 6K:5.3K $1.33/4. Volume was interrupted by 10:18's 5.4K $1.34. The period ended on 10:21's 610 $1.34.
10:22-13:28 during the initial twelve no-trades minutes had b/a of 10.2K:1.7K $1.34/5. Then a step up occurred on 10:34's 4.6K $1.34->$1.3499->$1.35->$1.3590. That was followed by very low/no-volume $1.34/$1.35 beginning on 10:38-:39's 900 $1.3401->$1.35->$1.34. B/a at 10:50 was 12.1K:1.3K $1.34/5, 11:07 16.5K:2.3K $1.34/5. Volume was interrupted by 11:18-:19's ~6K $1.35->$1.3550->$1.35->$1.3420. B/a at 11:19 was 15.5K:1.7K $1.34/5, 11:32 15.3K:2K $1.34/5, 11:50 13.7K:3.2K $1.34/5. Volume and price were interrupted by 11:58-12:00's ~5.6K $1.3499->$1.35->$1.34->$1.35->$1.36->$1.35. B/a at 12:04 was 4.7K:2.1K $1.34/5, 12:33 3.9K:2.2K $1.34/5, 12:50 1.6K:2.8K $1.34/5, 13:02 1.7K:3.2K $1.34/5. Volume was interrupted by 13:04-:07's 4.2K $1.34/$1.3450. B/a at 13:08 was 17.2K:3K $1.33/4. The period ended on 13:28's 104 $1.34.
13:29-13:51, began with eleven no-trades minutes that saw b/a at 13:33 of 17.3K:2.7K $1.33/4. Then began verylow/no-volume $1.33/$1.3350 on 13:40's ~2K $1.33/$1.3324. B/a at 13:47 was 33.1K $1.33/4. The period ended on 13:51's ~1.1K $1.33.
13:52-14:25, after seven no-trades minutes, began a medium-volume halting climb higher on 13:59's 500 $1.33/4. B/a at 14:04 was 34.7K:2.4K $1.33/4. Then it hit 14:09's 2.6K $1.34->$1.3450->$1.3489. B/a at 14:18 was 35.3K:1.8K $1.33/4. The period ended on 14:25's 200 $1.34->$1.36.
14:26-15:01, during nine no-trades minutes had b/a at 14:28 of 1.6K:900 $1.34/5. Then began very low/no-volume $1.34/6 on 14:35's 200 $1.36. B/a at 1:57 was 2.9K:4.4K $1.34/6, 15:07 2.1K:2.2K $1.34/5. The period ended on 15:01's 600 $1.3409->$1.36->$1.35.
15:02-15:42, after eight no-trades minutes, began dropping initially on medium-volume $1.34/5 (15:17 range widened to $1.3350/$1.35) on 15:09's 700 $1.34/$1.3414. Volume became very low/no-volume in just a couple minutes. B/a at 15:11 was 35K:2K $1.33/5. Volume ticked up to low/medium-volume at 15:17. Range narrowed to $1.33/4 at 15:19. B/a at 15:21 was 34K:1.2K $1.33/4, 15:29 800:4.3K $1.34/5. The period ended on 15:42's 1.1K $1.35->$1.3450.
15:43-16:00 began a rapid medium/higher-volume climb on 15:43-:44's 3.8K $1.35->$1.3550->$1.35, hit 15:48's 13.4K $1.36->$1.3650/$1.37->$1.36, 15:52's b/a of 2.2K:300 $1.36/7, and 15:52's 11.9K $1.37->$1.3750->$1.37. Trade then went low-volume sideways $1.36/7 until closing the period and day on 15:58's 1.1K $1.37->$1.3611->$1.37, 15:59 no trades, and 16:00's 400 $1.35.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there was 1 larger trade (1 4K+) totaling 4,000, 2.74% of day's volume, with a $1.3301 VWAP. Even considering trade volume of only ~56% of the 10-day average, the larger trades count and percentage of day's volume are extremely low. Adding in the PR for today and one might think the market was totally apathetic. Could be, could be, but see the "Friday Effect" comments above. Things might be different Monday or Tuesday but that's not something I would count on.
Note the VWAPs. For the day it was $1.3470, +1.23% over yesterday's $1.3307. You can see that result could only be produced by the last two periods' 37% of the day's volume with a rising VWAP. See comments above about yesterday's feeling someone was pushing lower to accumulate. Maybe that's why today had such small larger trades numbers?Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:48 8889 $1.3346 $1.3400 $11,897.52 $1.3385 6.08% 74.23%
10:21 22361 $1.3200 $1.3400 $29,814.26 $1.3333 15.30% 57.42% Incl 10:00 $1.3301 4,000
13:28 38921 $1.3400 $1.3600 $52,389.45 $1.3460 26.63% 44.12%
13:51 3210 $1.3300 $1.3350 $4,271.85 $1.3308 2.20% 42.19%
14:25 13400 $1.3300 $1.3600 $17,957.39 $1.3401 9.17% 48.07%
15:01 4560 $1.3400 $1.3600 $6,124.78 $1.3432 3.12% 46.36%
15:42 14140 $1.3350 $1.3500 $18,981.83 $1.3424 9.68% 49.04%
16:00 39578 $1.3500 $1.3750 $53,964.36 $1.3635 27.08% 41.71%
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
The good higher low, high and close are somewhat offset by the lower volume but we do need to keep a "Friday Effect" possible cause of the lower volume in mind.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -1.47% 1.54% 1.10% 2.27% -33.22%
Prior -2.86% -3.70% -2.86% -2.94% 15.90%
On my minimal chart the important thing is we closed above the known $1.34 support (horizontal blue line) after yesterday penetrating and closing below. Today it was on falling volume though so no strength is suggested. However, see comments above about Fridays and even if it wasn't Friday encountering a known support/resistance often produces indecision as folks wait for a resolution, leading to lower volume. So the lower volume is not a negative indicator, it's just a "not positive" for today.
This combined with the move up from the $1.30 low after I had been suggesting "at or very near a bottom" the last couple days is a positive though. Since I peeked at my unconventional stuff I also know we had some other support today suggesting we've indeed left the bottom for now.
The last thing about this plays off yesterday's { The volume is relatively high enough that it could signal the typical bottoming flush occurred. But that's never a certain thing. } High volume yesterday and very low volume today does seem to suggest we had a flush, if one ignores the possibility that today's volume is nothing more than a "Friday Effect".
If it's not just a "Friday effect" it supports the bottom has been seen assessment and we should do begin doing something else for the near-term, like a leg up within a consolidation pattern. Based on recent history a $1.47ish target seems reasonable. However, the medium-term rising support/resistance (rising white line), currently ~$1.41 and rising about $0.01/week IIRC, is between the current range and that target. We could see at least a pause there as it has demonstrated decent support and resistance in the recent past, along with some pauses.
If we don't get a leg up starting I think the worst will be near-term sideways. After "near-term" expires, it's wide open as to what's next.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger band limits are now both falling and diverging slightly with a sinking mid-point.
The fast EMA (squiggly yellow line) has turned up and is about $0.024 below the descending slow EMA (squiggly blue line). If I'm right about having bottomed and we actually start a leg up, rather than a sideways, movement, we'll want to watch for it to cross again and see if it will hold more than just a couple days this time. If so we have a 70%, I'm informed, chance of an extended move up. That would put the $1.47 in reach.
Yesterday I said { Today is more normal in that we had another day of rising volume on a drop. This normally suggest strength in the down move. However, combining the two days I more inclined to think it means we actually have found the bottom.
N.B. This assessment might be more emotional than rational though! }
Ignoring the typos I made while rushing, today's behavior does seem to support the "... have found the bottom" conclusion.
On my one-year chart the 10, 20 and 50-day SMAs are falling and we have 10 < 20 < 50-day SMAs. The 200-day, which went almost flat (but still rising) yesterday, made another small up-tick as the close improved. As mentioned a few days back, if it holds here there will be a rise another day or two and then a few days of weakening before resuming the rise.
The 50-day SMA is now only $0.0373 above the 200-day SMA.
The oscillators I watch, yesterday all weakening, went mixed today with small improvements in all but MFI (untrusted by me) and full stochastic. The others, more significant in aggregate I think, are working upward towards neutral except that above neutral already is momentum. Williams %R left oversold. It's still early with only one day's change in the process but this does look promising.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.2884 and $1.4421 ($1.2899 and $1.4424 yesterday) are slightly diverging as the lower limit drops most rapidly, dragging the mid-point a hair lower.
All in, what I see here is congruent with my assessment over the last couple days that we have found the bottom. Current signs suggest a good chance that we do better than just go sideways, but it is early in the swing, so patience is appropriate for now.
Maybe my unconventional stuff can shed some more light but it has also been whipsawed recently.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in opposite directions for the fourth consecutive day. This is an unusual situation and I have no explanation for it. The most likely cause I can think of is essentially MM "churn" as they alternately short, cover, end short-term long, dump, short again, cover, ... rinse and repeat. Another seemingly likely cause is suggested by the recent 10%+ increase in short interest I addressed over the last couple days. I won't repeat it all here but the possibility is they got spooked and are alternately shorting (minimally) to drive price down and cover. This would be supported if I were correct in yesterday's { My very first thought in the first few minutes of trade today was someone wanted to push price down to accumulate. }.
Just substitute "do covering buys" for "accumulate".
A thought just occurred - maybe my consideration should be "improved" instead of, or in conjunction with, directional correlation. The argument against that has to do with SEC rules relating to the mechanics of processing customers' sell orders by MMs. In normal scenarios increased sell orders from brokerage houses and/or their customers processed by MMs must be flagged as short sales. Moreover, any shares sold which have not yet settled and go external to the beneficial owners brokerage must also be flagged as short sales. All this makes it not only difficult to properly assess what is going on but may make use of "improved" as a consideration a futile effort.
Regardless, it's good to see short percentage very near being within the top of my desired range (needs re-check) and buy percentage struggling towards the mid-to-high 4x% range, where we commonly see some appreciation is possible even if it's not sustained appreciation.
N.B. Just occurred to me - I wonder if this vacillation of the two percentages might be a sign of a turn nearing, something I'll have to check to see if there's a pattern and/or correlation of some kind.
The spread narrowed slightly but would still be a bit wide if we were in a down trend, which I believe is no longer the case. Since this was produced with an intra-day mostly flattish behavior in which the high's magnitude above the flattish area was slightly greater than that of the low below that area (check VWAP vs. range) I think this shows a mild upward bias for the moment. Let's hope it continues for a bit.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings improved to 15 and 9 from 16 negative and 8 positive. Change since 09/12 is -$0.0932, -6.47% (big improvement from yesterday's -$0.1226, -8.44%), and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are now -0.6179%, -0.8203%, -0.6925%, -0.9581%, -1.4117%, -1.5840%, -1.6661%, -2.1769%, -2.3990%, and -0.9457%.
All in, while the two percentages moving opposite each other would be a negative, the relative "improvement" of each to nearer normal levels suggests the directional disparity is not the negative I would normally assess it to be. Adding in a reasonable spread when the down trend seems to be abating and VWAP showing some near-term improvement in trend, along with the averages of the 24-period movements, leads me to think that we have indeed found the near-term bottom and have at least a few days respite from the weakening.
As mentioned above though, I do believe this leads shortly to a leg up within the potential medium-term consolidation.
Bill
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