Oil & Gas - Energy - Commodities - Resources (OILBRENT)

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Peek Into Crude Oil Future Through Futures

* October 15, 2016

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of October 11, 2016.

Crude oil: On Tuesday, Russia and Saudi Arabia, two leading producers, said they are ready to cooperate to limit output. At the end of September, Russia produced 11.1 million barrels per day, and Saudi Arabia 10.6 mb/d. Later that day, the CEO of state-controlled Rosneft said he was not ready to cap his production. Yet another mixed signal, even as oil has priced in a successful OPEC meeting later next month.

Technically, spot West Texas Intermediate crude slightly built on last week’s break out of the declining trend line drawn from May last year. Then it stalled at the June 9th high of $51.67/barrel, rising to $51.60 on Monday. Until that high gets taken out, crude remains range bound, with the August 3rd low of $39.19 on the bottom end. The path of least resistance near term is down.

In the week ended October 7, the EIA data was mixed.

Crude stocks increased 4.9 million barrels to 474 million barrels. But both gasoline and distillates inventory declined – by 1.9 million barrels to 225.5 million barrels and by 3.7 million barrels to 157 million barrels, respectively.

Crude production declined by 17,000 b/d to 8.45 mb/d – a nine-week low. But imports rose by 151,000 b/d to 7.86 mb/d.

Refinery utilization fell 2.8 percentage points to 85.5 percent, matching the low in mid-January last year.

Currently net long 381.3k, up 37.4k.



http://www.hedgopia.com/cot-peek-into-future-through-futures-65/

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