AI
Friday, October 14, 2016 10:06:18 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 10/13 2016 EOD
Yesterday, while pondering the rising volume with zero movements, I ended with { ... is a sign of no ability to move up and more downside seems most likely. } Got that, but elsewhere I was more bullish, believing we were at or very near a bottom.
Today I think we have hit the bottom as everything is now more negative and the volume rose far enough to suggest we saw a flush. Add in that we have twice before recently seen $1.30 lows that began a leg up within a potential medium-term consolidation.
Tomorrow being a Friday, I anticipate a typical lethargic day though unless many others believe we are bottomed and see a good entry point.
My very first thought in the first few minutes of trade today was someone wanted to push price down to accumulate. We started low and immediately went lower, a stark contrast to the open low and go high or just open high and then go lower when I feel someone is trying to sell shares into strength and then shake out weak hands and do covering buys.
I had to wait to see if it was a good guess or not. It looked like it when we plummeted, on higher volume 9:46-:57, to hit $1.30. Price then slowly recovered, on mostly low/no-volume, to $1.33/5 by 10:32. Thereafter we settled into a mostly verylow/no-volume $1.33/4 through 15:12. Then 15:13 did a high-volume (~17.5K) $1.335->$1.3250 that spawned more falling price, finally bottoming on 15:21's ~4.9K $1.32->$1.31. Low/no-volume then brought as high as $1.34 by 15:37, sagged down to $1.33 by 15:50 and went into the close doing little volume $1.32/3. The day closed at $1.32.
So who benefited? We'll never know but the latest short-report suggests that it might be shorters. The Short Report 09/30/16 156,909 +10.78% increase, during a period when we traded $1.31-$1.43 (quite similar to the current range), might have made them feel a bit at risk because price did not tank from their activity, we had a couple decent PRs recently, and the trading volume has been low, increasing days to cover. If it was them, today gave them some attractive covering buy opportunities. Other days too, but maybe not all that attractive.
An alternate theory, related to shorting, could be that the lack of positive market response to a couple positive PRs emboldened them. If no strength at all appears on positive news, that may signal the type of weakness they love and cause them to short more. So this morning may have been that.
I guess it could have just been spooked retailers exiting positions they considered untenable.
A mix of mostly shorters and some retailers?
As always, we'll never know regardless of the number of theories considered.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-09:59 opened the day with a 335 sell for $1.36 and 22 more at $1.36, and immediately started down doing 9:31's ~4.8K $1.35, 9:32's ~7.1K $1.3510->$1.35->$1.34 and 9:33's ~5.1K $1.34/$1.3418, 9:34's 100 $1.34, 9:35's 300 $1.34, 9:36's b/a of 11K:3.1K $1.34/5, 9:36's 2.4K $1.34, 9:39's 600 $1.3490 (500)->$1.34, 9:40's b/a 11K:3.1K $1.34/5. Then came 9:46's ~22.3K (incl blk trades 8K $1.34 and 10.5K $1.3401) $1.35->$1.3401->$1.34, 9:47's 701 $1.34->$1.3401, 9:51's b/a 11K:2.6K $1.34/5, 9:52's 1.4K $1.3446->$1.34, 9:53's 1.5K $1.34, 9:54's 100 $1.34, 9:56's 9.1K $1.34->$1.33, 9:57's 25.1K $1.33->$1.31->$1.30->$1.32->$1.30, 9:58's 8K $1.30/1, and the period ended on 9:59's 200 $1.30
10:00-10:28 began very low/no-volume $1.3208/$1.33 on 10:01's 2K $1.3299. B/a at 10:02 was 1K:4.7K $1.31/3, 10:13 5.8K:5.8K $1.31/3. Range briefly moved to $1.31/2 on 10:21's 3.2K. B/a at 10:23 was 3.1K:7.2K $1.31/2. Range rebounded to $1.32/3 on 10:24's ~22K $1.3150/1.3198->$1.32->$.3258. B/a at 10:28 was 900:1.3K $1.33/4. The period ended on 10:28's 300 $1.33.
10:29-15:12, after three no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume (e.g 0 trades 11:16-:25, 11:31-:55) $1.33/4 on 10:32's 410 $1.3350->$1.3479->$1.3499 B/a at 10:40 was 1.2K:3.5K $1.33/4, 10:48 1K:3.8K $1.33/4, 11:11 2.2K:4.3K $1.33/4. Volume was interrupted by 11:15's 5.7K $1.33/9 (5K). B/a at 11:19 was 1.9K:4.6K $1.33/4, 11:48 2K:4.3K $1.33/4, 12:06 2.1K:3.3K $1.33/4, 12:35 2K:3.6K $1.33/4, 12:44 10.3K:2.3K $1.33/4. 12:55 began semi-frequent 100-share pecking the both bids and offers. B/a at 13:05 was 9/2K:3K $1.33/4. 13:08 commenced 100-share pecking the bids. B/a at 13:22 was 6.6K:3.1K $1.33/4, 13:49 7.1K:4.2K $1.33/4, 14:52 4.7K:3.3K $1.33/4. The period ended on 15:12's 900 $1.33/4.
15:13-15:21 did a rapid higher-volume drop on 15:13's 17.7K $1.335->$1.33->$1.3250 and hit 15:21's 5.1K $1.32->$1.31 B/a at 15:19 was 950:3.2K $1.32/3.
15:22-16:00 began medium-volume, through 15:26 and then very low/no-volume, $1.32/3 on 15:22's 5K $1.32->$1.33->$1.32. Volume went very low/no-volume at 15:27. B/a at 15:33 was 2.6K:1.5K $1.32/3, 15:44 200:4.2K $1.33/4, 15:52 2.2K:1.2K $1.32/3, 15:57 2.1K:1.6K $1.32/3. The period and day ended on 15:59's 329 $1.33->$1.32 and 16:00's 814 sell for $1.32.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 8 larger trades (>=5K & 1 4K+) totaling 54,602, 24.95% of day's volume, with a $1.3365 VWAP. The count and percentage seems normal for the day's volume. Note below where the larger blocks came. 40% of day's volume and all but 10K of larger trades occurred in the first 30 minutes. This makes me lean towards shorters driving price down to cover, and maybe a few retailers exiting positions, as subsequent to the early day we had a long flat very low/no-volume rest of the day, exactly what I would expect with careful covering buys.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
On my minimal chart we closed below the well-known $1.34 strong support. If we close below again tomorrow the break down will be confirmed and we are at risk of seeing $1.25 again. The volume is relatively high enough that it could signal the typical bottoming flush occurred. But that's never a certain thing.
The Bollinger band limits are now diverging with a sinking mid-point.
Yesterday, while pondering the rising volume with zero movements, I ended with { ... is a sign of no ability to move up and more downside seems most likely. } Today is more normal in that we had another day of risng volume on a drop. This normally suggest strength in the down move. However, combining the two days I more inclined to think it means we actually have found the bottom.
N.B. This assessment might be more emotional than rational though!
We continue trading below the longer-term rising support (rising white line) and are now at risk of trading below $1.34 support, which will make it resistance.
We bottomed at the same point of 10/4-10/5, $1.30, after which we started a leg up within the potential developing medium-term consolidation.
On my one-year chart the 10-day SMA switched from rising to falling and has crossed below the falling 20-day SMAs. The 50-day continues to fall and the 200-day is almost flat now, due to the drop in the close.
The oscillators I watch switched from yesterday's mixed to all weakening today. Williams %R and full stochastic both entered oversold and all but MFI (untrusted by me) are below neutral.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.2899 and $1.4424 ($1.2962 and $1.4407 yesterday) and has a falling mid-point.
All in, only the combination of relatively high volume and two oscillators in oversold suggests any possibility of a bottom having been found. If that is the case, which I said yesterday I though we were at or very near, we should have at least a short consolidation period, also suggested yesterday, and possibly a small rise within a consolidation pattern.
I'll cautiously stick with my at or very near a bottom call modified to now I think we saw the bottom.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys reverted to bad behavior as they moved in opposite directions and both went into very bad territory. But know I notice that they have been oscillating between this and better readings the last few days. That looks like a new behavior pattern developing - we'll see.
The spread widened a bit but wouldn't be bad if it had not been developed with the decidedly nasty early intra-day behavior. Within a leg down it's not quite big enough to assure more downside, but it's big enough to suggest that's likely.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held at 16 negative and 8 positive for the second day. Change since 09/09 is -$0.1226, -8.44%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) broke the string of six consecutive improvements in eight days and are now -0.8203%, -0.6925%, -0.9581%, -1.4117%, -1.5840%, -1.6661%, -2.1769%, -2.3990%, -0.9457%, and 0.8728%.
All in, these suggest more downside but for the possible new pattern mentioned above.
Bill
Yesterday, while pondering the rising volume with zero movements, I ended with { ... is a sign of no ability to move up and more downside seems most likely. } Got that, but elsewhere I was more bullish, believing we were at or very near a bottom.
Today I think we have hit the bottom as everything is now more negative and the volume rose far enough to suggest we saw a flush. Add in that we have twice before recently seen $1.30 lows that began a leg up within a potential medium-term consolidation.
Tomorrow being a Friday, I anticipate a typical lethargic day though unless many others believe we are bottomed and see a good entry point.
My very first thought in the first few minutes of trade today was someone wanted to push price down to accumulate. We started low and immediately went lower, a stark contrast to the open low and go high or just open high and then go lower when I feel someone is trying to sell shares into strength and then shake out weak hands and do covering buys.
I had to wait to see if it was a good guess or not. It looked like it when we plummeted, on higher volume 9:46-:57, to hit $1.30. Price then slowly recovered, on mostly low/no-volume, to $1.33/5 by 10:32. Thereafter we settled into a mostly verylow/no-volume $1.33/4 through 15:12. Then 15:13 did a high-volume (~17.5K) $1.335->$1.3250 that spawned more falling price, finally bottoming on 15:21's ~4.9K $1.32->$1.31. Low/no-volume then brought as high as $1.34 by 15:37, sagged down to $1.33 by 15:50 and went into the close doing little volume $1.32/3. The day closed at $1.32.
So who benefited? We'll never know but the latest short-report suggests that it might be shorters. The Short Report 09/30/16 156,909 +10.78% increase, during a period when we traded $1.31-$1.43 (quite similar to the current range), might have made them feel a bit at risk because price did not tank from their activity, we had a couple decent PRs recently, and the trading volume has been low, increasing days to cover. If it was them, today gave them some attractive covering buy opportunities. Other days too, but maybe not all that attractive.
An alternate theory, related to shorting, could be that the lack of positive market response to a couple positive PRs emboldened them. If no strength at all appears on positive news, that may signal the type of weakness they love and cause them to short more. So this morning may have been that.
I guess it could have just been spooked retailers exiting positions they considered untenable.
A mix of mostly shorters and some retailers?
As always, we'll never know regardless of the number of theories considered.
There were no pre-market trades.
09:30-09:59 opened the day with a 335 sell for $1.36 and 22 more at $1.36, and immediately started down doing 9:31's ~4.8K $1.35, 9:32's ~7.1K $1.3510->$1.35->$1.34 and 9:33's ~5.1K $1.34/$1.3418, 9:34's 100 $1.34, 9:35's 300 $1.34, 9:36's b/a of 11K:3.1K $1.34/5, 9:36's 2.4K $1.34, 9:39's 600 $1.3490 (500)->$1.34, 9:40's b/a 11K:3.1K $1.34/5. Then came 9:46's ~22.3K (incl blk trades 8K $1.34 and 10.5K $1.3401) $1.35->$1.3401->$1.34, 9:47's 701 $1.34->$1.3401, 9:51's b/a 11K:2.6K $1.34/5, 9:52's 1.4K $1.3446->$1.34, 9:53's 1.5K $1.34, 9:54's 100 $1.34, 9:56's 9.1K $1.34->$1.33, 9:57's 25.1K $1.33->$1.31->$1.30->$1.32->$1.30, 9:58's 8K $1.30/1, and the period ended on 9:59's 200 $1.30
10:00-10:28 began very low/no-volume $1.3208/$1.33 on 10:01's 2K $1.3299. B/a at 10:02 was 1K:4.7K $1.31/3, 10:13 5.8K:5.8K $1.31/3. Range briefly moved to $1.31/2 on 10:21's 3.2K. B/a at 10:23 was 3.1K:7.2K $1.31/2. Range rebounded to $1.32/3 on 10:24's ~22K $1.3150/1.3198->$1.32->$.3258. B/a at 10:28 was 900:1.3K $1.33/4. The period ended on 10:28's 300 $1.33.
10:29-15:12, after three no-trades minutes, began extremely low/no-volume (e.g 0 trades 11:16-:25, 11:31-:55) $1.33/4 on 10:32's 410 $1.3350->$1.3479->$1.3499 B/a at 10:40 was 1.2K:3.5K $1.33/4, 10:48 1K:3.8K $1.33/4, 11:11 2.2K:4.3K $1.33/4. Volume was interrupted by 11:15's 5.7K $1.33/9 (5K). B/a at 11:19 was 1.9K:4.6K $1.33/4, 11:48 2K:4.3K $1.33/4, 12:06 2.1K:3.3K $1.33/4, 12:35 2K:3.6K $1.33/4, 12:44 10.3K:2.3K $1.33/4. 12:55 began semi-frequent 100-share pecking the both bids and offers. B/a at 13:05 was 9/2K:3K $1.33/4. 13:08 commenced 100-share pecking the bids. B/a at 13:22 was 6.6K:3.1K $1.33/4, 13:49 7.1K:4.2K $1.33/4, 14:52 4.7K:3.3K $1.33/4. The period ended on 15:12's 900 $1.33/4.
15:13-15:21 did a rapid higher-volume drop on 15:13's 17.7K $1.335->$1.33->$1.3250 and hit 15:21's 5.1K $1.32->$1.31 B/a at 15:19 was 950:3.2K $1.32/3.
15:22-16:00 began medium-volume, through 15:26 and then very low/no-volume, $1.32/3 on 15:22's 5K $1.32->$1.33->$1.32. Volume went very low/no-volume at 15:27. B/a at 15:33 was 2.6K:1.5K $1.32/3, 15:44 200:4.2K $1.33/4, 15:52 2.2K:1.2K $1.32/3, 15:57 2.1K:1.6K $1.32/3. The period and day ended on 15:59's 329 $1.33->$1.32 and 16:00's 814 sell for $1.32.
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 8 larger trades (>=5K & 1 4K+) totaling 54,602, 24.95% of day's volume, with a $1.3365 VWAP. The count and percentage seems normal for the day's volume. Note below where the larger blocks came. 40% of day's volume and all but 10K of larger trades occurred in the first 30 minutes. This makes me lean towards shorters driving price down to cover, and maybe a few retailers exiting positions, as subsequent to the early day we had a long flat very low/no-volume rest of the day, exactly what I would expect with careful covering buys.
The intra-day buy percentages returned to the near-abysmal readings we saw just a couple days back. The question becomes will we again recover from them as before. Since we are again testing the well-known $1.34 support, it's important that we see buy percentage recover if that support is to hold.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
09:59 88798 $1.3000 $1.3600 $118,478.76 $1.3343 40.57% 18.81% Incl 09:31 $1.3500 4,800 09:46 $1.3400 8,000
09:46 $1.3401 10,500 09:56 $1.3400 5,102
09:57 $1.3300 7,000 9,200
10:28 35751 $1.3100 $1.3300 $47,230.34 $1.3211 16.34% 33.78% Incl 10:24 $1.3258 5,000
15:12 50520 $1.3300 $1.3499 $67,426.49 $1.3346 23.08% 31.93% Incl 11:15 $1.3390 5,000
15:21 23815 $1.3100 $1.3350 $31,597.95 $1.3268 10.88% 30.89%
16:00 17414 $1.3199 $1.3400 $23,093.89 $1.3262 7.96% 31.87%
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
Today's down readings combined with the second day of increasing volume (yesterday I was unsure what it meant in light of 0 movement elsewhere), would normally make me think rising strength in a downward move. But combined with yesterday's assessment of at/near a bottom this rising volume seems more of the typical "flush" seen at the bottom.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today -2.86% -3.70% -2.86% -2.94% 15.90%
Prior 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.73% 29.22%
On my minimal chart we closed below the well-known $1.34 strong support. If we close below again tomorrow the break down will be confirmed and we are at risk of seeing $1.25 again. The volume is relatively high enough that it could signal the typical bottoming flush occurred. But that's never a certain thing.
The Bollinger band limits are now diverging with a sinking mid-point.
Yesterday, while pondering the rising volume with zero movements, I ended with { ... is a sign of no ability to move up and more downside seems most likely. } Today is more normal in that we had another day of risng volume on a drop. This normally suggest strength in the down move. However, combining the two days I more inclined to think it means we actually have found the bottom.
N.B. This assessment might be more emotional than rational though!
We continue trading below the longer-term rising support (rising white line) and are now at risk of trading below $1.34 support, which will make it resistance.
We bottomed at the same point of 10/4-10/5, $1.30, after which we started a leg up within the potential developing medium-term consolidation.
On my one-year chart the 10-day SMA switched from rising to falling and has crossed below the falling 20-day SMAs. The 50-day continues to fall and the 200-day is almost flat now, due to the drop in the close.
The oscillators I watch switched from yesterday's mixed to all weakening today. Williams %R and full stochastic both entered oversold and all but MFI (untrusted by me) are below neutral.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.2899 and $1.4424 ($1.2962 and $1.4407 yesterday) and has a falling mid-point.
All in, only the combination of relatively high volume and two oscillators in oversold suggests any possibility of a bottom having been found. If that is the case, which I said yesterday I though we were at or very near, we should have at least a short consolidation period, also suggested yesterday, and possibly a small rise within a consolidation pattern.
I'll cautiously stick with my at or very near a bottom call modified to now I think we saw the bottom.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys reverted to bad behavior as they moved in opposite directions and both went into very bad territory. But know I notice that they have been oscillating between this and better readings the last few days. That looks like a new behavior pattern developing - we'll see.
The spread widened a bit but wouldn't be bad if it had not been developed with the decidedly nasty early intra-day behavior. Within a leg down it's not quite big enough to assure more downside, but it's big enough to suggest that's likely.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings held at 16 negative and 8 positive for the second day. Change since 09/09 is -$0.1226, -8.44%, and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) broke the string of six consecutive improvements in eight days and are now -0.8203%, -0.6925%, -0.9581%, -1.4117%, -1.5840%, -1.6661%, -2.1769%, -2.3990%, -0.9457%, and 0.8728%.
All in, these suggest more downside but for the possible new pattern mentioned above.
Bill
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