Thursday, October 13, 2016 12:34:54 PM
SIM.V - I bought for first time in morning. Thoughts...
...they spun this PR really well. Q2-16 had 2.0M of sales while Q2-15 had 2.8M of sales so Q2-16 could have been artificially low due to timing.
I note the following:
Revenue 9 months YTD 2016: 4.7M (Q2 FS) + 3.6M (press release) = 8.3M
Revenue 9 months YTD 2015: 7.2M
YoY Increase is $1.1M or 15%. Market wants to see higher growth than that. Combination of this and low Q2-16 is probably reason for retracement - and also opportunity for new buyers!
2015 revenues were $9.9M. Based on my above observations they are tracking for roughly $11.4M of 2016 revenues (15% growth). I don't think it is fair to annualize the record Q3-16 revenues.
Basic MC @ 0.27 is 18.7M (69.2M shares). FD MC is 24.7M (91.4M shares). I triple checked that this morning in SEDAR.
Current Price to Sales based on 2016 revenues then is 1.6X Basic and 2.1X Fully Diluted. Pretty Cheap.
If they show over $4M in revenues in Q4 then market should start thinking $16M annualized and potential for $20M in 2017 in which case we shouldn't see these low prices again.
Additional point - last Private Placement was at 0.35 from June and became free trading on October 11th but I doubt anyone from that will sell. You can buy below last PP, but they'll likely need additional funding in next 6 months. Working Capital was $5.5M at June 30, 2016 post-PP but that only included 950k cash.
All amounts above in $CAD eh!
...they spun this PR really well. Q2-16 had 2.0M of sales while Q2-15 had 2.8M of sales so Q2-16 could have been artificially low due to timing.
I note the following:
Revenue 9 months YTD 2016: 4.7M (Q2 FS) + 3.6M (press release) = 8.3M
Revenue 9 months YTD 2015: 7.2M
YoY Increase is $1.1M or 15%. Market wants to see higher growth than that. Combination of this and low Q2-16 is probably reason for retracement - and also opportunity for new buyers!
2015 revenues were $9.9M. Based on my above observations they are tracking for roughly $11.4M of 2016 revenues (15% growth). I don't think it is fair to annualize the record Q3-16 revenues.
Basic MC @ 0.27 is 18.7M (69.2M shares). FD MC is 24.7M (91.4M shares). I triple checked that this morning in SEDAR.
Current Price to Sales based on 2016 revenues then is 1.6X Basic and 2.1X Fully Diluted. Pretty Cheap.
If they show over $4M in revenues in Q4 then market should start thinking $16M annualized and potential for $20M in 2017 in which case we shouldn't see these low prices again.
Additional point - last Private Placement was at 0.35 from June and became free trading on October 11th but I doubt anyone from that will sell. You can buy below last PP, but they'll likely need additional funding in next 6 months. Working Capital was $5.5M at June 30, 2016 post-PP but that only included 950k cash.
All amounts above in $CAD eh!
Join the InvestorsHub Community
Register for free to join our community of investors and share your ideas. You will also get access to streaming quotes, interactive charts, trades, portfolio, live options flow and more tools.
