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Re: n4807g post# 2487

Tuesday, 10/11/2016 5:13:54 PM

Tuesday, October 11, 2016 5:13:54 PM

Post# of 7747
I usually hedge new long positions with a short position of equal value in a parallel account with a different brokerage. That way if the stock goes up immediately (very rare although its never happened to me, most likely because my broker sends a naked short request up the chain) I break even. As they walk it down I gradually cover the new short position with a modest gain, transfer cash to the long account with half the amount I want to invest long, the other half to the short account, and repeat. It doesn't give me much leverage to be honest but the additional 30-40% market share it gets me probably makes the difference when I win, which is usually. I think I'm 13 for 17 in biotech over 25 years, and 9 of my last 9.

As for the cash position of cytr, they had about 70 million at the time they did place the last issue of warrants and shares numbering 28.5 million at 70c ea. It sold out pretty quickly. Looks like Sabby took 10 mil and 10 mil warrants. So they would be the naked short with the tin cup that begged for the offering most likely. Since that time they have likely spent about 15 million of it. They did borrow 35 million from Hercules capital as well, which was underwritten by Trump capital. Interestingly there is a task force under Governor Pence investigating technology companies that are bought out by foreign owned pharmas at artificially low prices. Investigations of a123 systems, ocata therapeutics, and other major breakthrough techs should prove interesting as these countries try to market these goods here, should they be elected (which the market is saying not likely, judging by the drastic decline since debate #2). So the jig could be shaking its last legs.

Nonetheless cytr is faced with a potential reverse split in 2017 if the STS or SCLC study do not bring with it an SA or AA from FDA this quarter. However, I doubt aldox will be denied, there is a lot of data mining that can be done per the SPA to get it approved for subtypes and subpopulations in the phase 3, which is likely to meet SPA mPFS requirements anyway once the data matures. Remember, ORR and DCR were 2x treatment of choice at 4 months, and ORR/DCR are not supposed to correlate with mPFS or OS until 9 months (Zer et al.).