Oil & Gas - Energy - Commodities - Resources (OILBRENT)

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Peek Into Crude Oil Future Through Futures

* October 8, 2016

The following are futures positions of non-commercials as of October 4, 2016.

Crude oil: Spot West Texas Intermediate crude managed to break out of the declining trend line drawn from May last year. The June 9th high of $51.67/barrel has now taken on greater significance. Until that high gets taken out, crude remains range bound, with the August 3rd low of $39.19 on the bottom end.

This week, the EIA data helped trader sentiment as well.

In the week ended September 30, U.S. crude stocks fell by three million barrels to 499.7 million barrels – the lowest since January 22 this year.

Distillate stocks dropped, too, by 2.4 million barrels to 160.7 million barrels.

Crude imports fell by 125,000 barrels per day to 7.7 million b/d.

Ditto with crude production, which declined by 30,000 b/d to 8.47 mb/d. Production peaked at 9.61 mb/d in the June 5th week last year.

Refinery utilization, however, fell from 90.1 to 88.3 percent – a 23-week low.

And gasoline stocks rose by 222,000 barrels to 227.4 million barrels.

Spot WTI remains overbought on the daily chart. It has been trading along a rising trend line from February lows, so the recent breakout could prove to be important, should it manage to take out the June 9th high. On the other hand, price likely retreats near term. The February trend line gets tested around $45.

Currently net long 343.9k, up 34.5k.



http://www.hedgopia.com/cot-peek-into-future-through-futures-64/

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