Clinuvel Pharmaceuticals (CLVLY)

[ghmm]

I don't know PW well (not at all actually) but my sense is in agreement with yours with the interviews I've read/seen of him. That being said I really like royalties ! Here are a few reasons why I'd like a royalty based partnership:
1) A royalty is more valuable then a percent interest since there are no expenses.
2) If you get a good partner (actually in Clinuvels case a so-so partner with Regulatory/commercial experience) they would advance the program/commercialize at a faster rate so there is a time/value associated with that. The track record of Clinuvel is extremely slow on developing, regulatory and now commercialization.
3) Without a partner they are either going to go extremely slow with Vitiligo and/or dilute a fair amount. My guess with chronic treatment in a fairly large disease indication they will need to well controlled studies with perhaps a thousand (or more) patients and then some descent long term safety. If you take an estimate of 50k/yr per patient in trial that could be 100m+ for 2 years of development.

IMO, I don't get the sense they'll get a top tier partner they need a better formulation and don't have a lot of data on Vitiligo to get someone overly excited at this point. The singapore study was another example of terrible execution of the company.