Infinera Corp (INFN)

[ValueInvestor15]

Buy Infinera INFN stock right now?

Overview
- Stock's down almost 50% YoY - hasn't been trading this low since Aug, 2014.
- Recent decline due to Management's weak Q3 earnings guidance on 7/28 - citing weakening demand in North America and Europe
- Following guidance, stock was downgraded by J.P. Morgan, Nomura, B. Riley & Co. and Raymond James.

INFN is at its bottom
- Weak growth is a timing issue (new product launch is late by 6 months) not a structural problem with the business.
- Q3 will be the low point for revenue. Q4 will be marginally better and the growth starts to pick up in Q1 '17
- Prior to headwinds, revenue had grown +20% the last 3 fiscal years and broke into +10% EBITDA margins this last year.
- Infinera is pushing their (proprietary) technology into new markets that are huge (metro aggregation), or young markets that are growing rapidly (60%+ GAGR) and are forecast to do so for several years (small form factor data centre interconnect).
- Significant insider buying in the open market validates upside.

Valuation
- INFN ltm and fwd EBITDA multiples are trading below its peer group: chart
- The stock current market valuation implies 0% growth (not even inflation)
- Using a highly conservative growth forecast (nowhere near historical levels) - the stock still should be trading closer to $11 based on a future cash flows. My DCF analysis: link

Due to reasons mentioned above, seems like a great entry point that could easily achieve 20-40% gains.
Love to hear what everyone thinks...