$MBVX trade thoughts...
1st, I added today between 3.95 and low 4's
For the experienced traders on this thread you can skip to the bottom on why I am long $MBVX.
I wanted to post about my thoughts on $MBVX and why I think the market is getting the story and opportunity wrong, but perhaps more importantly I wanted to discuss the importance of doing your own DD. $MBVX is a good example, yes I am down on the trade, yet I decided to add, Sheff decided to sell, both decisions make perfect sense. Here is why IMO
I did the initial DD, so I probably started out with more conviction in the trade then Sheff. Sheff has some level of trust in my DD, but also did his own as usual. Regardless his hand probably had less conviction then mine. I did the original DD and after Sheff sold I circled back a second time on my trade thesis, hence why I added. I have NO idea who is right. Sheff correctly followed the price action and I correctly followed my DD and trade conviction. Both of us are right in our own way regardless of how the trade works out. I think this is an important point for the less experience traders on the thread. Yes, in hindsight one of us will make or lose more money, and at this point my DD says I am right and price action says Sheff is right.
I think what I am trying to convey is it's critical one does his own DD and follows their own style. Maybe I have more of a downside risk tolerance? Maybe Sheff is better at taking losses and I have confirmation bias? Maybe I trade longer time horizons? Maybe I am making an investment decision vs a trade decision? Each one of these answers can lead you to different action. It's important one does their own DD and trades their own style. You should understand your time horizons and risk tolerances.
Ok enough with my trade education thoughts, here is why I still want to own the stock.
1) 22m market cap -pretty compelling if I am right on platform/data.
2) Company is due 5m on interim results or $1/sh in non dilute financing. I expect this to happen October or early Nov, but certainly before year end.
3) Two important upcoming catalyst, probably October. The update two weeks ago in my view reads positively for the more important updates on the horizon.
4) Pancreatic cancer, any improvement in a very challenging disease will get investor's and pharma's attention.
I think the market simply has it wrong, they released a little bit of data and my sense is the market thinks that was the data traders/investors were anticipating when it was not. Mr Market get's it wrong a lot by the way in bioland. In this case I am willing to ride out the near term selling. I would say I made the same argument for $SCYX back in June/July.
So my central investment thesis has not changed from my original post/dd. Hopefully the trade works out as I am still underwater with a cost basis of $4.85.
I am not sure this long dissertation on $MBVX is worth it, but I thought it a good example of two traders both staying true to their styles.
Happy trading and best of luck,
-BioHunter
@The_BioHunter
-BioHunter
Twitter: @TheBio_Hunter
