Here are some eye popping numbers for y'all to play with. No matter how you slice and dice, the potential here is very large.
Assumptions:
-From GE, need 1000 printers over 10 years, and this will only be 5% of the global demand for printers.
-GE's comment is for aerospace applications.
-Medical demand is 1/2 of the aerospace demand.
-Automotive is equal to the aerospace demand (there are lots of cars built in a year).
-Down-Well applications will be 1/4 of the aerospace demand.
-Over the 10 year period all of these printers come on line in a linear fashion. That means each year 5500 printers come on line in total.
-SGLB only wins 1/2 of the IPQA business globally.
-From the S1 data, SGLB gets $150,000 per PR3D unit sold.
-From Cola, SGLB gets 22% of initial sales dollars as recurring revenue per year.
-SGLB Outstanding shares expands to 10 million shares.
-SGLB shares trade at a price/sales ratio of 3.5 (similar to 3D print companies traded on the big board exchanges).
In the first year of the 10 years SGLB has sales for 1/2 of the 5500 printers coming on line = 2750 printers @ $150K per printer = $412,500,000.
At 10 million shares outstanding this equates to a share price of $144.37.
In the second year the number of printers remains the same and brings in the same $412,500,000 in sales. But now we have the recurring revenue from year one coming in at .22 x $412,500,000 = $ 90,750,000. Total revenue is $503,250,000 and the resulting share price is $176.14.
In year three the same thing applies but now we have recurring revenue for two years of sales. It is clear that revenue goes over $1 billion.
Hack it up however you'd like, the numbers are big because the scope of the industry is big, the potential is large for SGLB, and the outstanding share count is small.
All the best,
Silversmith
