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Sunday, September 25, 2016 10:20:09 AM
Amateur Investors: Weekend Analysis
* September 24, 2016
I know I'm sounding like a broken record but the most likely pattern developing from the February low is a Wedge type affair. Meanwhile the VIX has reversed quickly back to the downside the past two weeks and dropped below the 12 level this week. In order for a top to occur the VIX will probably have to retest the low made in early August which was at 11 (point A).
Meanwhile, although it looks like Wave iv bottomed just over a week ago near 2120 and Wave v is evolving with new highs to follow shortly, one possible alternative scenario is that a more complex Wave iv is occurring.
In this scenario the previous low near 2120 would be retested which is now along the upward trend line before Wave v occurs. If this is going to happen then some additional selling would continue early next week.
Finally here is an interesting chart from Bloomberg which shows 2016 GDP Growth Expectations versus the S&P 500. Notice there has been a steady downward trend since the Summer of 2015 in GDP Growth Expectations (red line). The S&P 500 caught up with the GDP Growth Expectations last December and January (point B). However since then things have really gotten out of phase. Thus one of two things is going to happen eventually. Either GDP Growth is going to turn around and begin to rise substantially or the S&P 500 is going to have a decent correction.
http://www.amateur-investors.com/AII_Weekend_AnalysisSep_24_16.htm
• DiscoverGold
Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries.
* September 24, 2016
I know I'm sounding like a broken record but the most likely pattern developing from the February low is a Wedge type affair. Meanwhile the VIX has reversed quickly back to the downside the past two weeks and dropped below the 12 level this week. In order for a top to occur the VIX will probably have to retest the low made in early August which was at 11 (point A).
Meanwhile, although it looks like Wave iv bottomed just over a week ago near 2120 and Wave v is evolving with new highs to follow shortly, one possible alternative scenario is that a more complex Wave iv is occurring.
In this scenario the previous low near 2120 would be retested which is now along the upward trend line before Wave v occurs. If this is going to happen then some additional selling would continue early next week.
Finally here is an interesting chart from Bloomberg which shows 2016 GDP Growth Expectations versus the S&P 500. Notice there has been a steady downward trend since the Summer of 2015 in GDP Growth Expectations (red line). The S&P 500 caught up with the GDP Growth Expectations last December and January (point B). However since then things have really gotten out of phase. Thus one of two things is going to happen eventually. Either GDP Growth is going to turn around and begin to rise substantially or the S&P 500 is going to have a decent correction.
http://www.amateur-investors.com/AII_Weekend_AnalysisSep_24_16.htm
• DiscoverGold
Click on "In reply to", for Authors past commentaries.
Information posted to this board is not meant to suggest any specific action, but to point out the technical signs that can help our readers make their own specific decisions. Your Due Dilegence is a must!
• DiscoverGold
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