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Martin Armstrong: Analysis for the Week of September 26, 2016

* September 24, 2016

Dow Jones Industrials Index Cash

We should see a trend change come September in Dow Jones Industrials so pay attention to events ahead. Last month produced a high at 1872261 and so far we are trading neutral within last month's trading range of 1872261 to 1824779. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline. As of the close of Fri. Sep. 23, 2016, the market is immediately in a bullish posture near-term with a distinct bullish undertone suggesting caution on the daily level trading above the December 2015 high. Dow Jones Industrials closed today at 1826145 and is trading up about 480.0% for the year from last year's closing of 1742503. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past day, following the high established Thu. Sep. 22, 2016.

On the weekly level, the last important high was established the week of August 15th at 1872261, which was up 7 weeks from the low made back during the week of June 27th. We have been generally trading up for the past week from the low of the week of September 12th, which has been a move of 2.49% percent. Interestingly, the Dow Jones Industrials has been in a bullish phase for the past 12 months since the low established back in August 2015.

Some caution is necessary since the last high 1835136 was important given we did obtain two sell signals from that event established during May 2015. Critical support still underlies this market at 1561754 and a break of that level on a monthly closing basis would warn of a further decline ahead becomes possible. Subsequently, the market made a low in August 2015 at 1537033 electing four buy signals from that event. This warns that the trend is robust moving forward. Logically, my long-term view outlook recognizes that the current directional movement since the low made back in August 2015 has been an extended Bullish trend in Dow Jones Industrials which remains in motion as long as we hold above 1739915 on a monthly closing basis.

Consequently, this has been a 1 year rally in motion since 2015.

On the subject of the immediate momentum is Bearish on the weekly level yet we did penetrate the week of September 12th's low. Some caution is warranted given the fact that last month closed lower. To date, the market has exceeded last year's high of 1835136. In order to maintain an upward advance, we need to close above last year's high at year end. On the weekly level, last month was an outside reversal to the upside which is implying we have a bullish bias currently. At this moment, this market is in a downward trend on all our indicators looking at the weekly level. Honing in on the direction of this trend, we have been moving down for the past 5 weeks. The last high on the weekly level was 1872261, which was created during the week of August 15th. The last weekly level low was 1706308, which formed during the week of June 27th. However, we still remain below key support and key resistance now stands at 1836882 above the market. On a broader perspective, this market remains in an uptrend posture on all our indicators looking at the monthly level. We see here the trend has been moving up for the past 12 months. The last monthly level low was 1537033, which formed during August 2015, 2015. The last high on the monthly level was 1872261, which was created during August.

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