Monday, September 19, 2016 10:11:33 PM
http://www.economiccalendar.com/2016/09/19/natural-gas-prices-rally-stalls-at-key-resistance/
I posted the text below if you can't reach the link:
By Tracy Morganthall
Natural gas futures ended today’s session with a pullback from key resistance, closing the day off 0.47% with a settlement at $2.934. Following last week’s advance, the majority of which took place at the beginning of the week, overbought conditions became a factor, as indicated by the elevated level of the Stochastic, a price momentum indicator.
The recent consolidation may merely be a reaction to this overextended condition combined with the test of key overhead supply. Resuming the advance over the near term in the presence of the overbought condition would be a sign of internal strength, increasing the potential for a breakout above the July 1st high.
A sustained breakout above the July high would confirm that price action in recent months has represented a consolidation phase in an uptrend dating to the March low. A breakout above the July 1st high would also bring another key resistance level, at $3.105, into play. This represents the May rally peak, as shown on the weekly chart. A sustained move above this peak would be a bullish development for the longer term outlook for natural gas futures.
First support on a move to the downside is at the September 15th low at $2.834, which represents a test of the September 9th intraday high. A decline below this level would bring the rising trendline dating to the 2016 bottom, also shown on the weekly chart, into play. Holding this trendline, near $2.770, would keep the broader bullish bias in natural gas intact.
According the latest Commitment of Traders Report released by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission on September 16th, with data as of the September 13th close, large speculators are net short 77,135 natural gas contracts. Thus, a further advance in natural gas, with a breakout above the July high, could result in the liquidation of short holdings, adding further fuel to the advance in natural gas futures
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