It depends. If you hit say 14 plus months in overall survival, you could hit 100 dollars a share or 2.5 billion market cap. My reasoning here is that this would prove the mechanism of action of VB-111 for solid tumors; why would it only work in rGBM? Second, multiple approaches including checkpoint modulators, vaccines, chemo ect... have all failed to move the needle on the 9 months overall survival for rGBM. Third, I think(and I could be wrong on this)that this could produce a media storm that might also move the share price. Forth, the float is still pretty marginal and will probably still be by next year.
There is a biotech ICPT Interecept pharma that blasted from 20-30 to 480 briefly a few years back on positive trial news where a trial surprised on the positive side. The stock then quickly moved back down to earth... now trading in the 100's.
Should this happen next year, you could compare VBLT to JUNO or KITE. Yes, these companies have shown some stunning results, but are they scalable? neurotoxicity? and have a market cap today of between 2-4 billion. If VBLT shows 14 months plus overall survival versus 8-9 months in the control arm, FDA approval would be almost a sure thing as you can get in biotech.
One final rationale... yes VBLT could license VB-111 to a big pharma for 20 % plus royalties, but wouldn't a buyout in that scenario might lead to a 100 dollar -- 2.5 billion dollar price tag(or close to it?).
Thoughts?
