Ariad Pharmaceuticals Inc fka ARIA

[Whosetosay]

To belabor this a bit, you make the case exactly for a conspiracy theory. Your definition:

...:a belief that a particular unexplained event was caused by such a group.

You actually say,"...YET there is so much about past and present trading patterns, interaction between hedge funds and other institutions, why $28M+ shorts are still there, etc, etc that we all DO NOT understand and fully appreciate." You describe the 'unexplained event' and the unidentified interacting players, i.e. institutions, hedge funds and shorts, all pretty much a covert, i.e. unknown group, acting either in concert or not. Just saying.

You might simply admit you believe in the possibility of conspiracies and be done with it.

As for shorts staying short, or going short as the pps rises, they short because they believe the stock will go down. It's that simple. I am a long and do not agree.

I don't know all the reasons why folks might think the pps will drop, and thereby short, though. The case for Ariad going down is likely the typical case for a cash-starved biotech, especially one at this moment. There are Ariad specific reasons, too. The reasons could be, but are not limited to:

for all biotechs:
1. They are extremely risky stocks, valued on binary FDA decisions.
2. Market has top-line resistance at the moment
3. We are near October (risk)
4. We are near Nov. 11 (risk)
5. The IBB still sucks

Ariad specific:
1. Far more elective, non-tax related, non-contractually required insider sells, than buys. In fact, even counting required buys by PP, the ratio is 5:1, a 1,000,000 share imbalance. As I recall (not sure), the last insider buy with 'fresh money', was SSchlesinger, for 15,000 shares or so, ~2 years ago. If so, the ratio is more like 99:1 on a couple of million shares.
2. No pp, no offers
3. Ponatinib surprises and label, flatlining revs due to partnerships, lack of other IND reg trials, aging patent
4. Ariad's history of enormous collapses
5. Historical distrust of Ariad management (still valid, but not as bad as it was, perhaps)
6. Ariad's horrific balance sheet
7. Ariad's horrific negative cash flow.
8. Ariad has made shorters hundreds of $MM

All that and those risks are undeniably 100% true. I trust that provides an answer to your question for me.

The longs including me see the one great positive as '113 and what it means to a buyout.