A.I.M. Users Bulletin Board

[SFSecurity]

Hi Adam, Taking your advice I went to TDAmeritrade's commission free list and was a bit shocked at what I saw. Of the 101 ETFs 5 were up today, one did not change and ALL the rest were down. All the Vanguard, etc., so it may well be that your comment about the market being waiting to crash is accurate.

Looking at the various charts at http://www.seasonalcharts.com it would seem that we might get a bit more up until October and then ~20+% down slope. Here is a 37 year history of the DOW: http://www.seasonalcharts.com/volatilitaet_aktienindices_dj.html

Poking around at his other historical charts on the US election cycle there appears to be a low point in February next year. This is based on 100+ years of election cycle history.

And then there is the data at NBER where the bull markets have lasted an average of 65 months since 1960 and we are at ~90 months now. Even looking at the last three bull markets the average is 95 months so I'd guess upcoming times might be a lot like a roller coaster - a slow grind up and then a fast, wild and woolly ride down, screaming all the way until we hit bottom.

It looks like starting a TLT position might well be a starting point, perhaps 80% cash, 20% ETF to allow for buys on the downside. Others might be HYG, HYND or JNK.

JNK may be the best bet as it is paying ~6% with HYG right behingd it at ~5.5%.

Well, I have a few days to mull thus over.

Thanks,

Allen