Velocityshares Daily 2X Vix Medium Term (TVIZ)

[gldtimer]

Recession Started in Mid-2014

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/markit-flash-us-factory-pmi-softens-in-august-2016-08-23?link=MW_latest_news

...note the manufacturing chart. Bonds have of course rallied, and stocks/junk have clung to sovereign bonds (think barnacles) cheering bad news as good.

All this has caused pos vol players screaming fits along with a much lighter wallet.

So when will sovereign bonds final cut the cord and free themselves from the unwelcomed hitchhikers. Well it lies in the employment reports...specifically the 12 month moving average of the four month SA initial claims.

Once claims pop and exceed the moving average then stocks and junk will be booted out of the house kicked to the curb.

This is very similar to Gundlaches chart #2.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-05-06/jeff-gundlach-s-favorite-recession-indicators-say-everything-s-fine-for-now