CV Sciences Inc (CVSI)

[Det_Robert_Thorne]

The March price goal assumed no more convertibles

Yes, in early March I thought that CVSI might go to $1.00 - $1.25 before the 10-K because I thought that people would like the fact that conversion had ended, but also that the ability of the price to hold at that level would depend upon CVSI (then with symbol, CANV) being profitable:

I think that the company kept issuing shares to the execs because the price kept falling and their prior options and grants were either worthless or down in value. These costs are more "paper" expenses than anything else, and might now be over, so I think that CANV could turn a profit in 4Q/15 and 1Q/16.

So for now, I think that the price could work back up to the $1 or so we saw before the conversion began, and then when the 10-K is filed, we'll learn how many shares the note conversion cost.

If CANV had a profitable 4Q/15 and the OS is less than 65M (meaning an increase of 30M shares from dilution), then $1 - $1.25 could hold.

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=121046969

The day before the 10-K was filed, with CVSI trading at about $0.60 I again laid out my rationalle for a $1 stock price:

I sent an email to the Transfer Agent a few weeks ago, and was told that the OS is now approximately 52M shares. At $0.61, that means a fully diluted market cap of about $32M. In the first nine months of 2015, CANV did $9.3M in revenue and took a $5.6M operating loss (most of that loss is shares and options given as compensation). For the fully year, CANV will probably show close to $12M in revenue and assuming no more comp expenses, the net loss should be lower than than reported for the first nine months.

The estimates of a $1 stock price would mean a Mcap of about $52M, while a $2 price would double that. If it looks like CANV can go profitable in 1Q/16, then something in that price range seems reasonable. [emphasis added]

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=121046969

Again, I thought we would see revenue growth, better-controlled expenses and no more convertible notes.

When the report was filed the next day (April 14), it showed only $11.5M in revenue and large operating expenses that created a $12.2M loss for the year, and calculations showed 4Q/15 as being far from profitable. The report also showed continuing executive compensation via shares, which I earlier thought might have ended for awhile.

I posted the following in a review of the results, which didn't mention a price goal:

The stock price may not take too kindly to this, but the report does seem to show a light at the end of the tunnel, and the OS as of today is about 51.5M shares.

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=121931451

I made one more post that day about inventory and non-GAAP EBITDA, but again, no price target for the stock:

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=121934181

I didn't post again until May 27, more than a week after the 1Q/16 report was filed, and I said that due to the new convertible note announced in the 10-Q, I had exited my position:

IOW, six months from now, on or about November 25, 2016, Iliad Research and Trading (the noteholder) will be able to begin to convert the note to shares at a rate of $275K/month at $0.50/share or less (depending upon the stock price).

I'm not a fan of convertible loans, and have exited my small longer-term hold position, but might situationally trade it in the future.

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.aspx?message_id=122946811

I haven't traded CVSI since, and after seeing the 2Q/16 results and lack of growth, looking at the upcoming dilution and knowing that there will be more executive share compensation in the third quarter, I'll only consider trading CVSI if they come out with some SIGNIFICANT news before the 3Q/16 report is out in November.

Once the note conversions begin after Thanksgiving, I wouldn't touch this until they clear the notes, but by then, they just might take on another convertible.