Wednesday, August 17, 2016 10:06:40 AM
Buy:sell, daily shorts & pps 08/16 2016 EOD
Near-term bullish.
Intra-day summary: flattish again on very low/no-volume with aperiodic high-volume minutes interrupting the day's tranquility.
There was one odd-lot 67 share $1.52 at 8:53:30 pre-market trade.
09:30-10:17 opened the day with a 4,576 buy for $1.52. 9:32-:38's no-trades had 9:32's b/a 1.2K:100 $1.51/2, 9:35's 1.4K:100 $1.51/2. Then came 9:39's ~1.2K $1.52, 9:40's b/a 1.2K:1.9K $1.51/2, 9:46's 4.1K:100 $1.51/2, 9:46's ~17.6K (incl ~13.9K $1.52 blk) $1.5199->$1.52->$1.5215, 9:47's 23.4K (incl 14.4K $1.54 blks) $1.5250->$1.52/50/$1.53->$1.5389->$1.54->$1.5250/53, 9:50-:51's 5K $1.53->$1.5250->$1.53, 9:54's ~7.7K $1.5250/$1.53, 9:55's 500 $1.5210, 9:56's 4.8K $1,53->$1.5350. Then began very low/no-volume $1.53/4, 9:57's b/a 2.3K:550 $1.53/4, 10:14's b/a 6.9K:2.5K $1.53/4, 10:16's 7.1K:2.7K $1.53/4. 10:17's 7.4K $1.53 ended the period and put b/a back to 3.5K:600 $1.52/3.
10:18-10:52 began very low/no-volume high $1.52xx/$1.53 on 10:18-:19's 616 $1.53. B/a at 10:23 was 3.5K:1.7K $1.52/3, 10:25 3K:6K $1.52/3. 10:36's ~15.1K $1.53->$1.5299->$1.53 interrupted volume. B/a at 10:37 was 4.3K:2.5K $1.52/3. 10:44 spread the range to low $1.52xx/$1.53. B/a at 10:50 was 2.6K:2.9K $1.52/3. 10:52's 500 $1.52 ended the period.
10:53-11:10, after eleven no-trades minutes during which b/a at 11:00 was 1.4K:3.3K $1.52/3, began very low/no-volume low $1.52xx/3 on 11:04-:06's ~40.7K (incl ~16.6K $1.53 blk trd) $1.53. B/a at 11:07 was 3.7K:1.5K $1.52/3. 11:10's 3.2K $1.52/3 ended the period and expanded range to $1.52/3 but subsequent trades were heavily biased towards $1.53
11:11-16:00 B/a at 11:11 was 13.4K:2.5K $1.52/3 and began very low/no-volume $1.52/3 (heavily biased towards $1.53) on 11:11's 600 $1.53. B/a at 11:17 was 13.5K:500 $1.52/3, 11:28 13.3K:3K $1.52/3, 11:38 13.9K:500 $1.52/3, 12:19 13.4K:1.9K $1.52/3, 12:34 15.5K:600 $1.52/3, 12:48 15.8K:700 $1.52/3, 13:08 15.6K:500 $1.52/3, 13:27 15.9K:500 $1.52/3, 13:41 15.8K:600 $1.52/3. Volume was interrupted by 13:44's 16.7K (no big blk) $1.5299/$1.53. B/a at 14:05 was 16.9K:500 $1.52/3, 14:20 16.9K:500 $1.52/3.
Volume was interrupted by 14:16-:22's 32.8K $1.53 as b/a remain unchanged. Do you believe in magic? Seeing all the trades all day long that don't change b/a will make you a believer ... or a jaded participant, take your pick.
B/a at 14:30 was 16.8K:800 $1.52/3. Volume was interrupted by 14:34-:39's 22.3K $1.53->$1.5350->$1.53->$1.52->$1.53. B/a didn't change, of course. B/a at 14:54 was 17.4K:2.1K $1.52/3, 15:19 17.2K:2.28K (a change!) $1.52/3, 15:40 2.2K:4.8K $1.53/4! YAY!
But just a couple minutes later volume was interrupted by 15:41-:43's 31K $1.5350->$1.53->$1.52->$1,53 and b/a at 15:45 was 15.8K:9.1K $1.52/3. :( 15:57 b/a was 15.7K:8.1K $1.52/3. The period and day ended on 15:59's 3.3K $1.53 and 16:00's 252 $1.53. That's unusual - close at the same price as recent trading. Maybe portends good things?
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 12 larger trades (>=5K & 6 4K+) totaling 94,545, 27.37% of day's volume, with a $1.5300 VWAP. These metrics look pretty normal for the day's volume. Note the VWAP was slightly above the day's VWAP of $1.5292, but not by much.
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
On my minimal chart we finally got above $1.52 and challenged $1.54, which I had been expecting a few days now. We failed to penetrate it but I still think we will do so. The new intra-day behavior seems to be moving it that way and I can't argue against it while my unconventional stuff is not useful since I don't know what, why, who is causing the strange intra-day behavior.
I guess it's possible it's the warrant holders doing their push to $2.55 but I was expecting to see a steady, if not strong, rise as offers were taken out. But that's not happening (yet?).
Anyway, higher open, low, high and close along with challenging $1.54 again on strong rising volume suggests we'll get through $1.54 tomorrow. Then all we need is confirmation the following day.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger band limits went absolutely flat and parallel. We are trading near the upper range and if this continues we should see the limits begin to diverge. I would expect we'll "push" the upper limit.
Using just this stuff, more near-term up-side seems likely. I stick with yesterday's { What all that means to me is we should soon exit short-term consolidation to the up side. }
On my one-year chart a bit back I noted we needed to hit $1.53 to see our SMA's continue doing "the right thing". We got that and both the 10 and 20-day SMAs are risng again while the 50-day is flat, as predicted. The 50-day will begin to rise again in a day or two if we hold steady but I'm expecting us to rise.
The oscillators I watch, which yesterday were mixed but decidedly biased to the up-side, all improved today. Everything but accumulation/distribution is above neutral. Full stochastic entered overbought.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.4426 and $1.5635 ($1.4426 and $1.5635 yesterday) areabsolutely flat and parallel. Our trade range is in the upper area and I believe we'll be "pushing it if we break out of this odd intra-day flat behavior.
All in, near-term bullish.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, the first sign of some normalcy in a while, and the buy pwercentage has been above what's needed, I think, for sustained appreciation for five days now. Only the intra-day flat behavior, I think, caused a delayed start of the rise. The question now is will the trend continue and can we break the intra-day flat behavior. Yes to the trend in buy percentge is needed. A break of the flat might go the wrong way, but now sign of it since we have rising VWAPs on rising and strong volume developing.
The spread still suggests consolidation because it's so narrow as a result of the intra-day flatness.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings improved from 9 negatives and 15 positives to 8 negatives and 16 positives. Change since 07/13 is $0.1541, 11.20% and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are 0.4590%, 0.3934%, 0.4850%, 0.4435%, 0.4761%, 0.4766%, 0.2227%, 0.4407%, 0.3111%, and 0.5993%.
All in, the movement of short and buy percentage together, regardless of short being still too low, suggests we're seeing behavior that makes the indications somewhat useful again. So I do have some confidence in the buy percentage now, although it should weaken some now, and see the continued VWAP behavior as a positive now.
All in, near-term bullish here with some awareness that the buy percentage should weaken a bit and a "blip" lower is possible.
Bill
Near-term bullish.
Intra-day summary: flattish again on very low/no-volume with aperiodic high-volume minutes interrupting the day's tranquility.
There was one odd-lot 67 share $1.52 at 8:53:30 pre-market trade.
09:30-10:17 opened the day with a 4,576 buy for $1.52. 9:32-:38's no-trades had 9:32's b/a 1.2K:100 $1.51/2, 9:35's 1.4K:100 $1.51/2. Then came 9:39's ~1.2K $1.52, 9:40's b/a 1.2K:1.9K $1.51/2, 9:46's 4.1K:100 $1.51/2, 9:46's ~17.6K (incl ~13.9K $1.52 blk) $1.5199->$1.52->$1.5215, 9:47's 23.4K (incl 14.4K $1.54 blks) $1.5250->$1.52/50/$1.53->$1.5389->$1.54->$1.5250/53, 9:50-:51's 5K $1.53->$1.5250->$1.53, 9:54's ~7.7K $1.5250/$1.53, 9:55's 500 $1.5210, 9:56's 4.8K $1,53->$1.5350. Then began very low/no-volume $1.53/4, 9:57's b/a 2.3K:550 $1.53/4, 10:14's b/a 6.9K:2.5K $1.53/4, 10:16's 7.1K:2.7K $1.53/4. 10:17's 7.4K $1.53 ended the period and put b/a back to 3.5K:600 $1.52/3.
10:18-10:52 began very low/no-volume high $1.52xx/$1.53 on 10:18-:19's 616 $1.53. B/a at 10:23 was 3.5K:1.7K $1.52/3, 10:25 3K:6K $1.52/3. 10:36's ~15.1K $1.53->$1.5299->$1.53 interrupted volume. B/a at 10:37 was 4.3K:2.5K $1.52/3. 10:44 spread the range to low $1.52xx/$1.53. B/a at 10:50 was 2.6K:2.9K $1.52/3. 10:52's 500 $1.52 ended the period.
10:53-11:10, after eleven no-trades minutes during which b/a at 11:00 was 1.4K:3.3K $1.52/3, began very low/no-volume low $1.52xx/3 on 11:04-:06's ~40.7K (incl ~16.6K $1.53 blk trd) $1.53. B/a at 11:07 was 3.7K:1.5K $1.52/3. 11:10's 3.2K $1.52/3 ended the period and expanded range to $1.52/3 but subsequent trades were heavily biased towards $1.53
11:11-16:00 B/a at 11:11 was 13.4K:2.5K $1.52/3 and began very low/no-volume $1.52/3 (heavily biased towards $1.53) on 11:11's 600 $1.53. B/a at 11:17 was 13.5K:500 $1.52/3, 11:28 13.3K:3K $1.52/3, 11:38 13.9K:500 $1.52/3, 12:19 13.4K:1.9K $1.52/3, 12:34 15.5K:600 $1.52/3, 12:48 15.8K:700 $1.52/3, 13:08 15.6K:500 $1.52/3, 13:27 15.9K:500 $1.52/3, 13:41 15.8K:600 $1.52/3. Volume was interrupted by 13:44's 16.7K (no big blk) $1.5299/$1.53. B/a at 14:05 was 16.9K:500 $1.52/3, 14:20 16.9K:500 $1.52/3.
Volume was interrupted by 14:16-:22's 32.8K $1.53 as b/a remain unchanged. Do you believe in magic? Seeing all the trades all day long that don't change b/a will make you a believer ... or a jaded participant, take your pick.
B/a at 14:30 was 16.8K:800 $1.52/3. Volume was interrupted by 14:34-:39's 22.3K $1.53->$1.5350->$1.53->$1.52->$1.53. B/a didn't change, of course. B/a at 14:54 was 17.4K:2.1K $1.52/3, 15:19 17.2K:2.28K (a change!) $1.52/3, 15:40 2.2K:4.8K $1.53/4! YAY!
But just a couple minutes later volume was interrupted by 15:41-:43's 31K $1.5350->$1.53->$1.52->$1,53 and b/a at 15:45 was 15.8K:9.1K $1.52/3. :( 15:57 b/a was 15.7K:8.1K $1.52/3. The period and day ended on 15:59's 3.3K $1.53 and 16:00's 252 $1.53. That's unusual - close at the same price as recent trading. Maybe portends good things?
There were no AH trades.
Excluding the opening and closing trades (didn't qualify), there were 12 larger trades (>=5K & 6 4K+) totaling 94,545, 27.37% of day's volume, with a $1.5300 VWAP. These metrics look pretty normal for the day's volume. Note the VWAP was slightly above the day's VWAP of $1.5292, but not by much.
Note how well VWAP held up and how buy percentage rose even as most of the larger trades occurred when we normally see part of the day's rise eliminated and the buy percentage weaken. This is a notable change from recent past behavior.Ending Period Period Period __Per. Trade_ Period_ % Day_ Per. End
Period Volume Low High _Dollar Val._ VWAP___ Volume Buy ~%
10:17 76422 $1.5199 $1.5400 $116,828.76 $1.5287 22.12% 52.54% Incl 09:46 $1.5200 13,886 09:47 $1.5400 14,400
10:52 31301 $1.5201 $1.5300 $47,810.82 $1.5275 9.06% 58.15%
11:10 43457 $1.5200 $1.5300 $66,479.81 $1.5298 12.58% 69.57% Incl 11:04 $1.5300 16,630
16:00 192562 $1.5200 $1.5350 $294,515.37 $1.5295 55.73% 66.31% Incl 14:18 $1.5300 4,600 14:19 $1.5300 4,500
14:21 $1.5300 4,531 9,669
14:36 $1.5350 8,700
15:41 $1.5350 4,100 4,454
15:42 $1.5200 5,000 15:58 $1.5201 4,075
On the traditional TA front, movements were:
The high is not as bad as it looks. Recall that we had an AH 500 $1.55 trade yesterday, which I use as the high. The "official" high yesterday was $1.52 and the high movement would be 1.32% if we used the official high.__Open_ ___Low_ __High_ _Close_ Volume_
Today 1.33% 1.33% -0.65% 0.66% 81.30%
Prior -1.32% 0.00% 1.64% 1.33% -44.31%
On my minimal chart we finally got above $1.52 and challenged $1.54, which I had been expecting a few days now. We failed to penetrate it but I still think we will do so. The new intra-day behavior seems to be moving it that way and I can't argue against it while my unconventional stuff is not useful since I don't know what, why, who is causing the strange intra-day behavior.
I guess it's possible it's the warrant holders doing their push to $2.55 but I was expecting to see a steady, if not strong, rise as offers were taken out. But that's not happening (yet?).
Anyway, higher open, low, high and close along with challenging $1.54 again on strong rising volume suggests we'll get through $1.54 tomorrow. Then all we need is confirmation the following day.
The experimental 13-period Bollinger band limits went absolutely flat and parallel. We are trading near the upper range and if this continues we should see the limits begin to diverge. I would expect we'll "push" the upper limit.
Using just this stuff, more near-term up-side seems likely. I stick with yesterday's { What all that means to me is we should soon exit short-term consolidation to the up side. }
On my one-year chart a bit back I noted we needed to hit $1.53 to see our SMA's continue doing "the right thing". We got that and both the 10 and 20-day SMAs are risng again while the 50-day is flat, as predicted. The 50-day will begin to rise again in a day or two if we hold steady but I'm expecting us to rise.
The oscillators I watch, which yesterday were mixed but decidedly biased to the up-side, all improved today. Everything but accumulation/distribution is above neutral. Full stochastic entered overbought.
The 13-period Bollinger limits, $1.4426 and $1.5635 ($1.4426 and $1.5635 yesterday) areabsolutely flat and parallel. Our trade range is in the upper area and I believe we'll be "pushing it if we break out of this odd intra-day flat behavior.
All in, near-term bullish.
Percentages for daily short sales and buys moved in the same direction, the first sign of some normalcy in a while, and the buy pwercentage has been above what's needed, I think, for sustained appreciation for five days now. Only the intra-day flat behavior, I think, caused a delayed start of the rise. The question now is will the trend continue and can we break the intra-day flat behavior. Yes to the trend in buy percentge is needed. A break of the flat might go the wrong way, but now sign of it since we have rising VWAPs on rising and strong volume developing.
The spread still suggests consolidation because it's so narrow as a result of the intra-day flatness.
The VWAP's last twenty-four readings improved from 9 negatives and 15 positives to 8 negatives and 16 positives. Change since 07/13 is $0.1541, 11.20% and the averages of the rolling 24-day period seen in the last few days (latest first) are 0.4590%, 0.3934%, 0.4850%, 0.4435%, 0.4761%, 0.4766%, 0.2227%, 0.4407%, 0.3111%, and 0.5993%.
All in, the movement of short and buy percentage together, regardless of short being still too low, suggests we're seeing behavior that makes the indications somewhat useful again. So I do have some confidence in the buy percentage now, although it should weaken some now, and see the continued VWAP behavior as a positive now.
All in, near-term bullish here with some awareness that the buy percentage should weaken a bit and a "blip" lower is possible.
Bill
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