Enanta Pharmaceuticals Inc (ENTA)

[willyw]

Rocky wrote;

with the overall HCV market going down, ENTA needs to get double or triple the current market share to be meaningfully profitable. Not impossible, but seems unlikely.

The HCV market has come down since the highest prices can no longer be charged and the sickest of the sick were treated with the most expensive treatments (such as Dac/Sov)

There is still a lot of market, but yes; lower prices and more sharing w/ the competition is coming.

I think your thesis is an argument why Gilead should drop. :)

In the case of ENTA, the next gen will be equal or better than Epclusa. If price were the same; Gild and abbvie could share (academically hypothetical) 50-50
Not so in G-1 today; not similar products; not enough. (r- boosting, riba, G1a vrs 1b. etc)

Abbvie/Enta 2nd gen will open into all genotypes.
Abbvie 2nd Gen 8 weeks vrs 12 weeks epclusa (GILD)
Abbvie superior efficacy in G-3 (it appears)
Abbvie truly pan-genotypic; one TX for all groups; not so with GILD; epclusa or triple.

Why would ENTA only double or triple their penetration?
I would think it could quadruple in only G-1

What if they got 1/2 of G-3? That's a sizeable market. In reality they could take more of G-3 than that; what TX is better?

Why would payors pay for equal SVR rates w/ Epclusa in 12 weeks if 8 weeks in all genotypes is equal? Abbvie 8 week may be cheaper than Gild 12 week program.

Personally, I think they can double or triple it with ease.
That would be an interesting pool. : )

Shocking to think; Gilead may have to compete with pricing.
+++++++++++++++

Royalties in 2018 (technically late 2017, probably) on will be 2nd gen in the USA while getting 1st gen in the rest of the world. They could be able to hit upper tiers, so should get higher income due to 50% royalties on 2nd gen, but also higher rate on tiered sales. (does formula combine sales of 1st and 2nd gen programs to hit tiers?)
I would think 2018 would be a very good year for ENTA. What will Gilead shareholders do if GILD only had 50% of HCV market share? Not pretty after earnings report. : )