Vid, You are so right in this being a pivotal time for the pps and interaction of the short side. Again, I truly think that right now the continued higher volume(keeping the pressure on) is the key in preventing the bear raids and maintaining a trend upward/or where we are now.
Below are some facts as I see them and only accentuates the true imbalance that the shorts are looking at which would be indicative of their fierce fight until ultimately the real squeeze will take place
Float 171.5M (Tradeable shares , no insiders, ESOP, etc)
Institutions 121.7M (71% - assuming they are not day trading this position)
Options 5.8M (Current Open Interest-must be allocated)
Balance 43.9M (Available to trade, retailers (thats US), day traders, etc)
Shorts 30.4M (Last report who must ultimately buy/cover)
Therefore, IMHO if we are seeing volume of 16M a day (actually average volume over the last 10 days has been 9.2M), and the pps has risen due to new longs coming in (has to be with the shorts fighting with all they have to) then logic would tell me that most of the volume are round trips with shorting more/selling and immediate covering/buying back by the shorts. Bottom line maintaining status quo short interest level....which is OK and will be fuel for the squeeze.
Most of all, one can see that this is an impossible situation for the shorts with very few shares available to cover at current pps levels and that when the pain gets too great the pps will go up quickly get to an equilibrium at a much higher level when true supply and demand will start. One other thing about the shorts is that the current level is NOT about a negative fundamental sentiment but rather being stuck because they didn't cover when they could at a lower level. For me, that is the REAL sign of the imbalance and key here!!!!
Also, I was very impressed with the conference call and how the level of management seemingly has been upgraded significantly. For a relative newbie like me, I just sensed that is was much more credible....no real facts to back that up by the way.
Also, I agree with you about the ultimate BO pps or higher because I don't think that Denner would have spent all the time and effort in making management changes, focused on the science with huge upside and now some real operational results to let this go quickly or cheaply. Of course the unknown is how much the buyer wants it and how quickly they want to take it off the market. The plot thickens with very positive signals IMHO
