Pengrowth Energy Trust (PGH)

[Teflon2Insults]

Any opinions?

I did OK (meaning not multiples but nice fast 10%-ers) long on the spikes and shorting it back. Current position could erase much of it.

I'm guessing that the last week+ freefall has been for risk avoidance positioning until some type of announcement on the debt is made. The downside of not handling the payments/refinance is brutal - virtually a total loss, (whereas even most solutions it gets rid of short term uncertainty but remains a troubled Co, badly leveraged, etc.).

The gas/oil market - while obviously important - much less so for the way this stock reacts. If anything it magnifies the problem since the effect of hedges and such factor in so much - but at the end of the day PGH has decent resources/assets and is historically well run. When you add to it the type of special tax advantage corporate structure is only realized when paying (large) dividends **NOT** interest - there is every reason the bondholders would not hesitate - reasonably maybe even try - to take ownership at a default rather than concede much of a payback break. Fact is - it would seem to put the company right on track and in the thick of things (removes most all of the controllable problems and realizes currently unused values it does have) ...but obviously - the current equity holders are pretty much toast.

On the other hand - a sign that they actually can make the upcoming squeeze would hopefully get this thing back to the $2 maybe toward $3 pretty soon...

Obviously this all my opinion..with very limited info (like if the recent big buyers have maintained position and are able/willing to provide any refinance assistance) so tendered and hopefully received as seemingly not unreasonable or unrealistic.